D&D 5E Opinion poll: Once D&D Next is out, how do you think it will do? (based on what we have so far)

[JRRNeiklot]

I foresee initial high sales based on the D&D logo, then tapering off to nothing within two years. A hodgepodge of mechanics from various editions will satisfy very few.

 

[Plaguescarred]

I think D&D Next will be absolute success and regain the title of top RPG. I think we'll see better adventures (we already do IMHO) than before and older campaign settings getting revived again.

 

[Li Shenron]

I voted for the middle option. I expect 5e to be of moderate sales success, somewhere above 4e and below 3e.

I think there are different groups in the customer base, perhaps the biggest generalization could be:

- hardcore fans of a specific edition
- general D&D fans
- general RPG fans
- casual gamers

Thing is, I have no idea how many belong to each category

But in general, they will follow very different dynamics.

Hardcore fans of a specific edition will be persuaded to invest in 5e beyond the core, only if the new edition provides a clear improvement. But what kind of improvement are they looking for?

General D&D fans are those who own non-core books of multiple editions (possibly other systems as well, but D&D being their primary). Even if not currently playing all editions they have, they generally think they'll probably play them again. These might be the easier ones to also include 5e into their collection.

Blurred with the previous, general RPG fans may also easily pick up 5e, but since D&D is not their primary choice, they won't do so if it's too similar with another edition of D&D.

Casual gamers are the biggest question... the point is that any non-gamer is a potential casual gamer, so the potential base is huge, and it all boils down to how WotC is going to (a) convince them to try the game out, and then (b) stick with it. Task (a) might be mostly a marketing issue, and has little or nothing to do with the rules of the game. Task (b) definitely depends on the rules, but also depends on people dynamics around the game. Can WotC deliver a game that can be enjoyed by families? By teenager friends groups? By school children? Can it be played at a scout camp, at a social (non-gamist) club, at school, at office parties, even at the church parish?

When talking about this, I have a parallel in mind with the computer games market. There was a time, in the early age of home computer games, when stuff was so simple that it really was for everyone... think about Pong, Pac Man or Duck Hunt. You would literally play them with grandma and grandpa on a Christmas' eve - although they probably wouldn't have bought those games for themselves - but the point is that they were not seen too much as a niche/nerd thing. Then average games got progressively more and more complicated... you wouldn't have much fun playing stuff like Street Fighter II or Tekken 3 unless you invested time practicing them. This trend hasn't stopped, and even investment-heavier games like WoW have flourished, but in parallel to this someone came up with the Wii, and games (at least those) once again became somewhat more mainstream.

Now I don't know if WotC is even interested in doing this, I'm just saying however that it could be a possibility, to allow D&D to become a more mainstream sort of entertainment than a niche one.

 

[(Psi)SeveredHead]

I believe it's nearly impossible to sell games to casual gamers. Between the SRD and the offline character builder, virtually nobody in my gaming group buys game books.

The people who do are usually DMing and invested to some extent in an edition. The DM who ran Kingmaker for us bought 13th Age and might run it (but he's also thinking of Star Wars D6, he has a lot of games). I'm running 4e, and have bought many core products physically from an FLGS. In both cases, the players don't have access to the rules of the game. I can't imagine a casual player buying the gigantic (and fairly expensive) Pathfinder player's book, for instance. Why bother, when the rules are all freely available?

Casual players rarely determine what game is going to be played anyway. They are likely to play whatever game is available, as long as they don't think it's terrible (and even then, they'll probably play the first session).

If WotC wants D&DN to be successful, they need to sell to DMs. Only if a DM gets a casual player hooked on an edition are they likely to start buying stuff.

 

[(Psi)SeveredHead]

Loads of double posts

 

[ForeverSlayer]

I believe it's nearly impossible to sell games to casual gamers. Between the SRD and the offline character builder, virtually nobody in my gaming group buys game books.

The people who do are usually DMing and invested to some extent in an edition. The DM who ran Kingmaker for us bought 13th Age and might run it (but he's also thinking of Star Wars D6, he has a lot of games). I'm running 4e, and have bought many core products physically from an FLGS. In both cases, the players don't have access to the rules of the game. I can't imagine a casual player buying the gigantic (and fairly expensive) Pathfinder player's book, for instance. Why bother, when the rules are all freely available?

Casual players rarely determine what game is going to be played anyway. They are likely to play whatever game is available, as long as they don't think it's terrible (and even then, they'll probably play the first session).

If WotC wants D&DN to be successful, they need to sell to DMs. Only if a DM gets a casual player hooked on an edition are they likely to start buying stuff.

I will say this.

Even though you can essentially get the rules for Pathfinder for free, people do still buy the book.

 

[pming]

Hiya.

The core rules will sell well. After that, well, I just don't see WotC being able to do what they need to do. Why? They're too big and have Big Brother Hasbro breathing down their neck.

(snip long winded blather I wrote...)

They need to make modules or at least put out something VERY similar to OGL so the uninformed can feel safe when writing adventures to sell or give out on the net. I don't see WotC doing that. So...after the core rules sell, it will quickly drop off as people start "creating" their own game with the rules. WotC will cancel D&D. Hasbro will sit on it. Years will pass, then maybe...just *maybe*...Hasbro will sell it to someone.

^_^

Paul L. Ming

 

[GreyLord]

Hiya.

The core rules will sell well. After that, well, I just don't see WotC being able to do what they need to do. Why? They're too big and have Big Brother Hasbro breathing down their neck.

(snip long winded blather I wrote...)

They need to make modules or at least put out something VERY similar to OGL so the uninformed can feel safe when writing adventures to sell or give out on the net. I don't see WotC doing that. So...after the core rules sell, it will quickly drop off as people start "creating" their own game with the rules. WotC will cancel D&D. Hasbro will sit on it. Years will pass, then maybe...just *maybe*...Hasbro will sell it to someone.

^_^

Paul L. Ming

Very Doubtful Hasbro will "Sell" anything. License...maybe. Sell...No. It would have to be one heck of a deal to sell it. It's not that it can't happen, but a deal like that would be VERY rare, unless that company is abounding in so much money they don't know what else to do with it. More likely it would be a licensee situation...much better for everyone all around.

 

[MJS]

I voted average as well, although, average for D&D is not an average RPG. I certainly don't hope it tanks, and I will purchase supplements if not tied to the game's "innovations".

My overall hope is that the hobby, and RPG publishing, grows and stays strong. There is nothing like a good RPG session, and it can't be fully replicated online or in CRPG's.

 

[Mistwell]

I believe it's nearly impossible to sell games to casual gamers. Between the SRD and the offline character builder, virtually nobody in my gaming group buys game books.

The people who do are usually DMing and invested to some extent in an edition. The DM who ran Kingmaker for us bought 13th Age and might run it (but he's also thinking of Star Wars D6, he has a lot of games). I'm running 4e, and have bought many core products physically from an FLGS. In both cases, the players don't have access to the rules of the game. I can't imagine a casual player buying the gigantic (and fairly expensive) Pathfinder player's book, for instance. Why bother, when the rules are all freely available?

Casual players rarely determine what game is going to be played anyway. They are likely to play whatever game is available, as long as they don't think it's terrible (and even then, they'll probably play the first session).

If WotC wants D&DN to be successful, they need to sell to DMs. Only if a DM gets a casual player hooked on an edition are they likely to start buying stuff.

Everyone was a brand new player at some point. They can sell to brand new players. This, I hope, is a major goal of their marketing team.