D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Zardnaar]

since the movie made 2.25B at the box office, it was a success and Cameron can work on three more sequels

I know I wasn't claiming it flopped but it could flop on 1.5-1.9 billion at the box office depending on who you believe.

 

[Deset Gled]

As I said a flop as I defined it is if it loses money.

In China 75% (apparently)the money says in China. The US market its around 50% (varies is a sliding scale can start around 40%).

That's the percentage the movie theatre keeps. So yeah a movie cam make more than it's budget and still lose money.

The problem with this philosophy is that you're adding it extra costs, but not adding in the extra incomes. You can think about marketing costs, or fees taken by the theater, or import/export fees, or anything. But then you also need to think about money made from merchandising. Money from licensing deals. In-movie ads. Home video sales. Streaming rights. But at the end of the day, none of this is related to the cost the studio paid to make the movie (it's budget) or how much money is paid to see the movie on release (box office returns). Those are the two base numbers. Money in, and money out.

Simply put, you're doing the Hollywood accounting. When a movie is said to "lose" money even when it makes more than it's budget, all it means is that the Hollywood accountants are shuffling around who gets the money at the end. But rest assured, it's still in the industry. When you play your game, it looks like no one ever makes a profit. But that's also blatantly false. If it were true, no one would ever make movies again. Hollywood would have gone bankrupt long ago.

 

[Zardnaar]

The problem with this philosophy is that you're adding it extra costs, but not adding in the extra incomes. You can think about marketing costs, or fees taken by the theater, or import/export fees, or anything. But then you also need to think about money made from merchandising. Money from licensing deals. In-movie ads. Home video sales. Streaming rights. But at the end of the day, none of this is related to the cost the studio paid to make the movie (it's budget) or how much money is paid to see the movie on release (box office returns). Those are the two base numbers. Money in, and money out.

Simply put, you're doing the Hollywood accounting. When a movie is said to "lose" money even when it makes more than it's budget, all it means is that the Hollywood accountants are shuffling around who gets the money at the end. But rest assured, it's still in the industry. When you play your game, it looks like no one ever makes a profit. But that's also blatantly false. If it were true, no one would ever make movies again. Hollywood would have gone bankrupt long ago.

Perhaps but that information ist really public.

If a movie bombs vs a flop/underperformed it's probably not gonna do well on merchandise etc.

The reverse is also true if the movie is a smash hit.

If it makes around 400 million for examle it's a lot more murky and that's where people will try and spun it.

 

[LordEntrails]

Hit
Over

I'll take the under and will bet anyone who wants a random copy of one of my zines (while supplies last) against whatever you put up.

I'll take over, for a random die pulled from my box of die no longer used. Some of those go back to the '70's so never know what you might get!

 

[el-remmen]

Hit
Over


I'll take over, for a random die pulled from my box of die no longer used. Some of those go back to the '70's so never know what you might get!

You got a deal! Are we doing just doing opening weekend? I assume we can agree to use Snarf's numbers above?

 

[LordEntrails]

You got a deal! Are we doing just doing opening weekend? I assume we can agree to use Snarf's numbers above?

Sure, Snarf's numbers above, opening weekend only

 

[bedir than]

Let's be more specific.

Currently, it's projected at the following:

Opening weekend between $50-$60 million.
Total Domestic: $150-$175 million.
Total Worldwide: $400-$450 million.

(There will be updated numbers as we get closer to the opening on March 31, 2023).

Do you take the OVER or the UNDER


Personally, I take the under. I think it will perform slightly under expectations. I hope I'm wrong.

Where are those projections from?

 

[cbwjm]

It's going to be a hit.

 

[Henadic Theologian]

Budget is $151M confirmed in a Variety article today.

That is a much higher bar for success. It'll need to make over $300,000,000 to break even, over $400,000,000 to be a success. I think it'll do better then that, I'm guessing over.

There are a lot of D&D fans out there and general fantasy fans.

 

[Clint_L]

Relevant article:

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Can Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Reverse the Franchise's Prior Big Screen Missteps?

This week's report takes an early look at the final major studio release of a busy March, Paramount and Hasbro's Dungeons & Dragon: Honor Among Thieves.

www.boxofficepro.com