D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Parmandur]

Yip it's not impossible the movie blows up and is a big hit. I don't think it will be MCU franchise type big but who knows?

And Chris Pine isn't a bad actor or anything u just don't think he is big box office like some think. Outside of franchise movies I think his typical movies are sub 100 million.

Yeah, he's not Tom Cruise, but he is recognizable so he won't hurt the movie. The cast is pretty well put together to intrigue a range of people. Michelle Rodriguez with Hugh Grant? Wild.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

If a movie makes more than it's budget, it's a success. If it makes less, it's not. Anything else is Hollywood accounting. Never believe the Hollywood accounting.

No, you should never trust Hollywood Accounting (HA). The thing about HA is that- as flawed and distorted as it is- it’s part of Hollywood’s decision-making process.

So even if a movie is profitable in the traditional sense, if it isn’t by HA standards, that could kill any hopes of a franchise or greatly alter how the IP rights holders manage the property.

 

[Zardnaar]

No, you should never trust Hollywood Accounting (HA). The thing about HA is that- as flawed and distorted as it is- it’s part of Hollywood’s decision-making process.

So even if a movie is profitable in the traditional sense, if it isn’t by HA standards, that could kill any hopes of a franchise or greatly alter how the IP rights holders manage the property.

Its basically why I'm just looking at the box office numbers.
If the movies a big hit or big flop HA won't matter to much either way. It's more about who gets what (studio, taxes, directors etc) vs how successful the movie is.

It will matter if the numbers are marginal (300-400 million) or maybe a bit higher since it seems we don't know if the 151 million includes marketing or not.

Opening weekend and the drop off to week 2 will likely give us the trajectory of how the movie goes.

 

[Clint_L]

If we assume good but not great reviews (say 70-80% on RT) and cinemascore from viewers (say, B+/A-), the final domestic will probably be something like 2.5 times opening weekend. So in the $100 million ballpark - I'm using that as my baseline. What I'm hoping for is good word of mouth, especially among the D&D community, to give it legs. A film like this probably won't be front loaded unless it is really bad.

 

[Zardnaar]

If we assume good but not great reviews (say 70-80% on RT) and cinemascore from viewers (say, B+/A-), the final domestic will probably be something like 2.5 times opening weekend. So in the $100 million ballpark - I'm using that as my baseline. What I'm hoping for is good word of mouth, especially among the D&D community, to give it legs. A film like this probably won't be front loaded unless it is really bad.

Most movies are front loaded these days. I think Avatar2 is the most recent exception.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

we don't know if the 151 million includes marketing or not

Typically the budget numbers we see quoted for movies don't include the bulk of the marketing costs, though I'm sure there have been exceptions. Given what we're seeing SFX-wise I imagine the $150m here doesn't.

Most movies are front loaded these days. I think Avatar2 is the most recent exception.

Yeah and given that the Super Mario Bros movie and others are coming out in the weeks after the D&D movie I doubt it will have a particularly long tail unless there's something very cult-y/rewatchable about it (which seems unlikely).

As you say, Avatar 2 was an exception. It had that because it was a huge event movie and is essentially unique in being a true-3D (unlike literally 99% of "3D" movies) movie that's beautiful, widely-accessible (i.e. not just for a particular audience), and family-friendly, but also not a "for kids" movie. It's very rare to see that.

 

[Zardnaar]

Typically the budget numbers we see quoted for movies don't include the bulk of the marketing costs, though I'm sure there have been exceptions. Given what we're seeing SFX-wise I imagine the $150m here doesn't.

Yeah and given that the Super Mario Bros movie and others are coming out in the weeks after the D&D movie I doubt it will have a particularly long tail unless there's something very cult-y/rewatchable about it (which seems unlikely).

As you say, Avatar 2 was an exception. It had that because it was a huge event movie and is essentially unique in being a true-3D (unlike literally 99% of "3D" movies) movie that's beautiful, widely-accessible (i.e. not just for a particular audience), and family-friendly, but also not a "for kids" movie. It's very rare to see that.

Well ATM the minimum break even point for the movie is around 300 million.

If that figure doesn't include marketing and the movie has a typical marketing budget the new figure is around 450 million.

Under 300 million it's a outright flop(well 290ish maybe) over 450 it's probably made money. At least until new figures or clarifications come out.

 

[Mistwell]

That it is ABSOLUTELY NOT how it works.

Just to be clear.

Whether it's a hit or flop isn't a matter of our opinion, it's a matter of the studio's opinion, and no Hollywood studio, not even one, thinks "made a profit" is enough to not be a flop.

Why? Because of opportunity cost - all the time and money you spent making a movie that barely made a profit could have been spent making a movie that made a large profit (and a high proportion of movies do make a sizeable profit).

If the D&D movie isn't looking at least $300-400m worldwide, in a few months, it'll be a flop. Even $300m might be a bit low.

I don't know what your opinion is based on. But, it's not accurate in my experience - and I have experience in this industry and my wife is in that industry. Your numbers are too high for what is considered a success.

Regardless, I think it will be a success.

 

[Zardnaar]

I don't know what your opinion is based on. But, it's not accurate in my experience - and I have experience in this industry and my wife is in that industry. Your numbers are way too high for what is considered a success.

Has she said anything about industry rumors on how well the movie is gonna go?

 

[Mistwell]

Has she said anything about industry rumors on how well the movie is gonna go?

The lack of a bar on early reviews, the festival release of the movie, the pre-signing of the writers to a right of first refusal (which is rare these days), and the large marketing budget all seem to indicate the studio thinks they have a big hit on their hands.