D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Ruin Explorer]

Well ATM the minimum break even point for the movie is around 300 million.

If that figure doesn't include marketing and the movie has a typical marketing budget the new figure is around 450 million.

Under 300 million it's a outright flop(well 290ish maybe) over 450 it's probably made money. At least until new figures or clarifications come out.

Yeah I agree completely - I posted similar figures earlier.

I don't know what your opinion is based on. But, it's not accurate in my experience - and I have experience in this industry and my wife is in that industry. Your numbers are way too high for what is considered a success. But you're stating them with over the top absolutist certainty.

My stepmother is... well I'm not going to say because she's one of very few people in that position who is female, and it would be easy to doxx back to me from there, but I am confident in my numbers, and I'm not sure what figures you'd consider, but for a movie that's spent $150m on getting made - probably before marketing - I don't think my figures are at all. What would you say based on $150m budget before marketing?

I'm talking about enough of a success that there will be sequels and so on, to be clear.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

The lack of a bar on early reviews, the festival release of the movie, the pre-signing of the writers to a right of first refusal (which is rare these days), and the large marketing budget all seem to indicate the studio thinks they have a big hit on their hands.

I agree with this though. There seems to be a decent amount of confidence in the movie. The only thing that worries me slightly is talking to people, like, people I'd expect to be excited aren't, which surprises me. I still think it looks good though.

 

[EthanSental]

I still use the dirty math of double the budget to break even since the movies tickets are split roughly 50/50 with the studio. It’s no where near exact but in the ball park realm. Do I think it will make 300M world wide to cover that 151M budget…I hope so but think it’s more in the 250M world wide.

Then again if I enjoy it, who cares, other than being successful and well received enough to make another movie in a couple years! The trailers look fun to me so far and again the novel threw me on on of the characters in the trailer from what I thought based on the trailers. I’m even more excited to watch it now. Multiple viewings….maybe if various groups of friends go see it at different times or days.

 

[Parmandur]

I agree with this though. There seems to be a decent amount of confidence in the movie. The only thing that worries me slightly is talking to people, like, people I'd expect to be excited aren't, which surprises me. I still think it looks good though.

The X factor at this point is probably reviews: if the critics are middling about the movie, it will hurt it, but a lot of those sort of folks may perk up if the critics are raving about it in the net few weeks.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

The X factor at this point is probably reviews: if the critics are middling about the movie, it will hurt it, but a lot of those sort of folks may perk up if the critics are raving about it in the net few weeks.

Yes I think that's right.

 

[Zardnaar]

Yes I think that's right.

People oay attention to critics?
. I'm waiting for word of mouth and user type reviews.

 

[Parmandur]

People oay attention to critics?
. I'm waiting for word of mouth and user type reviews.

They do: it's not the only thing that matters and ovviously some stuff is critic proof, but all else being equal great reviews will increase the box office, bad reviews will decrease it

 

[Parmandur]

People oay attention to critics?

Here is a taste of the research on this question:

"The authors investigate how critics affect the box office performance of films and how the effects may be moderated by stars and budgets. The authors examine the process through which critics affect box office revenue, that is, whether they influence the decision of the film going public (their role as influencers), merely predict the decision (their role as predictors), or do both. They find that both positive and negative reviews are correlated with weekly box office revenue over an eight-week period, suggesting that critics play a dual role: They can influence and predict box office revenue. However, the authors find the impact of negative reviews (but not positive reviews) to diminish over time, a pattern that is more consistent with critics’ role as influencers. The authors then compare the positive impact of good reviews with the negative impact of bad reviews to find that film reviews evidence a negativity bias; that is, negative reviews hurt performance more than positive reviews help performance, but only during the first week of a film's run. Finally, the authors examine two key moderators of critical reviews, stars and budgets, and find that popular stars and big budgets enhance box office revenue for films that receive more negative critical reviews than positive critical reviews but do little for films that receive more positive reviews than negative reviews. Taken together, the findings not only replicate and extend prior research on critical reviews and box office performance but also offer insight into how film studios can strategically manage the review process to enhance box office revenue."

How Critical are Critical Reviews? The Box Office Effects of Film Critics, Star Power, and Budgets
Suman Basuroy, Subimal Chatterjee, and S. Abraham RavidView all authors and affiliations
Volume 67, Issue 4

https://doi.org/10.1509/jmkg.67.4.103.18692

 

[Clint_L]

Most movies are front loaded these days. I think Avatar2 is the most recent exception.

To a certain degree and that's by design - the studios get a higher share of the earlier receipts. But this movie won't likely be as front loaded as something like, say, a Marvel movie which has a very established fan base. This film has more potential to be discovered, and that could give it better legs. If it is good. If it is bad, then, yeah, they're screwed.

So far it looks pretty good to me, though in a fairly generic action comedy kind of way.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

People oay attention to critics?
. I'm waiting for word of mouth and user type reviews.

whispers

Anyone you don't know telling you how a creative product turned out is giving you a review.