D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[teitan]

I wpukd say they invested q50 million with higher expectations than what we're seeing.

It's not a smash hit movie a few were predicting based purely on personal bias.

Hell on Enworld some were thinking billion dollars

No way it was going to do a billion. That’s unrealistic even for Marvel. Marvel had lightning in a bottle between Infinity War and Endgame and DC rode that with Aquaman. It was an anomaly not a new standard. I was predicting 450-500 with 650 on the high end if it opened at 100k. I don’t think anyone behind it expects it to hit that high or even close to it. Again merchandising drives these movies, box office is great but merchandise is what pushes a franchise and if the merchandise sells the movie will get a sequel if it turns a slight profit.

 

[humble minion]

One indicator I'm keeping an eye on is the AO3 scale, which is something of a guide as to the impact a movie has had on online geek pop culture (albeit on that's only really accurate after about the mid-late 2000s when AO3 came online).

The AO3 scale is, simply, the number of fanfics inspired by a given property that are published on Home | Archive of Our Own

Obviously it's a bit of a lagging indicator (writing takes time...) but it's a slow start. We're sitting on 32 after the opening weekend (most of which concern Edgin gettin' it on with either Xenk or Forge, but that's AO3 for ya). Other films with 32 on the AO3 scale are ... I Robot starring Will Smith from 2004, or the legendary 2012 flop John Carter. but, when i checked on Saturday it was only 6, so we're making progress.

By comparison, John Wick (all the movies) is in the 1400s (lower than i expected, perhaps the fanfic-writing demographic and the lotsa-guns-action-movie demographic don't overlap too much), Avatar (likewise, both films) is in the 3100s. The really big dogs like Harry Potter and the MCU are in the half million region,

 

[bedir than]

One indicator I'm keeping an eye on is the AO3 scale, which is something of a guide as to the impact a movie has had on online geek pop culture (albeit on that's only really accurate after about the mid-late 2000s when AO3 came online).

The AO3 scale is, simply, the number of fanfics inspired by a given property that are published on Home | Archive of Our Own

Obviously it's a bit of a lagging indicator (writing takes time...) but it's a slow start. We're sitting on 32 after the opening weekend (most of which concern Edgin gettin' it on with either Xenk or Forge, but that's AO3 for ya). Other films with 32 on the AO3 scale are ... I Robot starring Will Smith from 2004, or the legendary 2012 flop John Carter. but, when i checked on Saturday it was only 6, so we're making progress.

By comparison, John Wick (all the movies) is in the 1400s (lower than i expected, perhaps the fanfic-writing demographic and the lotsa-guns-action-movie demographic don't overlap too much), Avatar (likewise, both films) is in the 3100s. The really big dogs like Harry Potter and the MCU are in the half million region,

Except the natural place for D&D fanfic is a kitchens table or a VTT

 

[OB1]

The Sunday actuals, when they release today, should give a pretty good indication on if the film will have legs. Currently estimated at $10M, if it comes close to or beats it's $13.5M Saturday, that would indicate that the word of mouth on the film is starting to have an effect.

What's clear is that the initial marketing campaign for the film failed to attract a significant audience outside of D&D fandom (There were about 3.5M US moviegoers who saw the film this weekend). But with little competition until May, it has a good chance of finding an audience outside that core. If the film only drops 20-30% next weekend and is anywhere above 150M worldwide, expect a sequel to be announced right away (which can further boost April ticket sales).

Hit or Flop for this film is 100% about whether or not it gets a sequel. It could lose significant money, but if the metrics are strong enough to warrant a second chance at a franchise, it should be considered a hit for Hasbro. The second film would have the advantage of millions of people discovering the film via streaming and the TV show further strengthening the brand in the minds of non-D&D fans leading up to it.

 

[bedir than]

The Sunday actuals, when they release today, should give a pretty good indication on if the film will have legs. Currently estimated at $10M, if it comes close to or beats it's $13.5M Saturday, that would indicate that the word of mouth on the film is starting to have an effect.

What's clear is that the initial marketing campaign for the film failed to attract a significant audience outside of D&D fandom (There were about 3.5M US moviegoers who saw the film this weekend). But with little competition until May, it has a good chance of finding an audience outside that core. If the film only drops 20-30% next weekend and is anywhere above 150M worldwide, expect a sequel to be announced right away (which can further boost April ticket sales).

Hit or Flop for this film is 100% about whether or not it gets a sequel. It could lose significant money, but if the metrics are strong enough to warrant a second chance at a franchise, it should be considered a hit for Hasbro. The second film would have the advantage of millions of people discovering the film via streaming and the TV show further strengthening the brand in the minds of non-D&D fans leading up to it.

Another indicator of hit or flop is Core 3 and boxed set sales on Amazon

 

[Undrave]

Again merchandising drives these movies, box office is great but merchandise is what pushes a franchise and if the merchandise sells the movie will get a sequel if it turns a slight profit.

Gotta buy those Dicelings I guess...

But with little competition until May, it has a good chance of finding an audience outside that core. If the film only drops 20-30% next weekend and is anywhere above 150M worldwide, expect a sequel to be announced right away (which can further boost April ticket sales).

Super Mario Bros. comes out next weekend...

Another indicator of hit or flop is Core 3 and boxed set sales on Amazon

Heh, I doubt this movie was ever going to do that.

 

[bedir than]

Gotta buy those Dicelings I guess...

Super Mario Bros. comes out next weekend...

Heh, I doubt this movie was ever going to do that.

If just 1% of the people who saw the movie by a D&D book it shoots back into the top 10

 

[darjr]

It’s ranked 129 in Amazon now. Pretty great actually, at a heavy discount but still very high. I dint think it’s exceptionally higher than it has been.

Which is kinda mind bending all by itself.

 

[Zardnaar]

The Sunday actuals, when they release today, should give a pretty good indication on if the film will have legs. Currently estimated at $10M, if it comes close to or beats it's $13.5M Saturday, that would indicate that the word of mouth on the film is starting to have an effect.

What's clear is that the initial marketing campaign for the film failed to attract a significant audience outside of D&D fandom (There were about 3.5M US moviegoers who saw the film this weekend). But with little competition until May, it has a good chance of finding an audience outside that core. If the film only drops 20-30% next weekend and is anywhere above 150M worldwide, expect a sequel to be announced right away (which can further boost April ticket sales).

Hit or Flop for this film is 100% about whether or not it gets a sequel. It could lose significant money, but if the metrics are strong enough to warrant a second chance at a franchise, it should be considered a hit for Hasbro. The second film would have the advantage of millions of people discovering the film via streaming and the TV show further strengthening the brand in the minds of non-D&D fans leading up to it.

Except if it flops Hasbro has tob find another idiot to pony up cash. I doubt Paramount will.

And if the movie tanks flow on merchandise sales won't be that great either. Clearance bins in a few months.

The market may not be there for an expensive D&D movie they may have to go low budget make a good movie and build on that.

TV show maybe. Season of Shadow and Bone came in under 70 million and it's one of the best fantasy shows on.

 

[bedir than]

Except if it flops Hasbro has tob find another idiot to pony up cash. I doubt Paramount will.

And if the movie tanks flow on merchandise sales won't be that great either. Clearance bins in a few months.

The market may not be there for an expensive D&D movie they may have to go low budget make a good movie and build on that.

TV show maybe. Season of Shadow and Bone came in under 70 million and it's one of the best fantasy shows on.

Paramount already bought one D&D TV show and already signed Daley & Goldstien to a first look deal based on the completed movie before a single ticket was sold.

Actual actions, with real money, indicate that Paramount is supporting D&D.

 

[Zardnaar]

Paramount already bought one D&D TV show and already signed Daley & Goldstien to a first look deal based on the completed movie before a single ticket was sold.

Actual actions, with real money, indicate that Paramount is supporting D&D.

Before the movie is key.

It's possible the movie cones in under 200 million. Paramount takes a dunking on that.

I highly doubt they'll want a repeat on that. If the movie bombs hard enough it could take the show with it.

See what week 2 results are.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

Before the movie is key.

It's possible the movie cones in under 200 million. Paramount takes a dunking on that.

I highly doubt they'll want a repeat on that. If the movie bombs hard enough it could take the show with it.

See what week 2 results are.

Damn are you pessimistic...

you might be right, you might be wrong, but you are depressing me right now...

 

[Zardnaar]

Damn are you pessimistic...

you might be right, you might be wrong, but you are depressing me right now...

I'm looking at the numbers and crunched out 30, 50 and 70% fall offs.

It's looking marginal at 30% 70% is a wipe out.

The box office numbers are all downhill from here.

Crunch the numbers yourself. 70 million, 35, 17, 8 that's around 50% over 4 weeks.

Do it at 30% 70% etc.

Idk John Wicks falloff but it was over 50% iirc. 30% is an optimistic number.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

I'm looking at the numbers and crunched out 30, 50 and 70% fall offs.

It's looking marginal at 30% 70% is a wipe out.

The box office numbers are all downhill from here.

Crunch the numbers yourself. 70 million, 35, 17, 8 that's around 50% over 4 weeks.

Do it at 30% 70% etc.

Idk John Wicks falloff but it was over 50% iirc. 30% is an optimistic number.

I did not mean your numbers. I meant your repeating of the same statements over and over again.

So yeah. Maybe you are not pessimistic... but still depressing...

I want to look at the bright side: it took the first place this weekend.

 

[MonsterEnvy]

I think Zard is pessimistic, and is trying to discount any success in this case.

 

[Zardnaar]

I did not mean your numbers. I meant your repeating of the same statements over and over again.

So yeah. Maybe you are not pessimistic... but still depressing...

I want to look at the bright side: it took the first place this weekend.

It took further place because it didn't open against anything relevant. John Wick was on week 2, next week is against Mario. So that's it more or less done at number 1.

By week 3 we can make some educated guesses at its total box office. At 30% it's around 220-230 million at 70% its 150ish.

Sp it needs a stronger than expected "tail" or vastly better than expected drop of to hot 300 million.

Not impossible but not looking good IMHO. Can't really call it ATM though.

 

[Clint_L]

Relevant article: ‘Dungeons & Dragons’ Locks Up $38.5M Opening: Is This Enough To Start A Franchise? – Sunday Box Office

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

If you liked Quantumainia or The Eternals or Shazam, you will like this movie.

Inaccurate comparison.

The Eternals is a great way to get to sleep when you have insomnia. There's way too much happening in DADHAT for it to serve the same purpose.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Relevant article: ‘Dungeons & Dragons’ Locks Up $38.5M Opening: Is This Enough To Start A Franchise? – Sunday Box Office

Look, @Clint_L, you can either listen to respected experts in the industry or you can listen to anonymous people who claim expertise on ENWorld.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

D&D, with a third of kids off from school tomorrow, could see a nice hold on Monday and Tuesday.

I don't doubt that the movie industry tracks when spring break happens, but this is an interesting factoid to drop into the article. (My kids just finished spring break, incidentally.)