D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Zardnaar]

I think a fair few people will see it just because it's a big light action comedy being released in (here in Australia at least) school holidays, and it's something for the kids to do. That's a market that John Wick is not in competition for. On the Other Forum i frequent (completely non-RPG related), one guy went because he had an Amazon advance screening ticket, and really enjoyed it, and another is going with a bunch of friends who are D&D players even though he's not himself. There might be a surprisingly solid word of mouth factor on this one.

True. John Wick seems to be relatively big hit.

 

[FrogReaver]

I can say this much. It’s already a winner compared to all previous d&d movie attempts. Never has there been this much buzz about a d&d movie.

Not seen the movie but that much is obvious.

 

[Vaalingrade]

I.....I....saw the Movie!

It's what I feared: fast and loose with anything D&D related and basically just a Phase Four Marvel movie type. And had way, way, way, way too much juvenile slapstick 'action'. I had to stop counting the times some character with a weapon stopped attacking with it to punch their opponent.

But, it was at least average. If you liked Quantumainia or The Eternals or Shazam, you will like this movie.

Two pretty good movies that got robbed in the movie media out of three (and also The Eternals was there; the first genuine win for the Marvel hating crowd since Thor: the Dark World) for comparison and it doesn't care about 'realism'?

Whelp, I was going to wait a week, but opening night now.

 

[Stormonu]

I do wonder if any of the money made from this will feed back into the actual production of D&D materials. Even a measly $1 mill back into making books & adventures would be nice.

 

[Vaalingrade]

I do wonder if any of the money made from this will feed back into the actual production of D&D materials. Even a measly $1 mill back into making books & adventures would be nice.

Merchandise, a comic adaptation, licensing, a bonus for executives both in Hasbro and Paramount, the cost of an email to the regular staff explaining that in this economy the company can't possibly give them a raise and that they're probably moving to a 'merit' based system that mysteriously cuts deep into future bonuses if they haven't already, paying lawyers to go after people using footage from the movie.

Literally anything but supporting the game. The whole idea like a decade ago was to not have to do much to support the IP generato... I mean game.

 

[mamba]

Are they including prerelease screenings in opening weekend figures?

yes they are

 

[Zardnaar]

yes they are

That will pump up opening weekend but increase the falloff for week two.

And it's those two weeks that matter the most.

Fir week two a good fall off is 30% bad 70%. If the numbers big enough or small enough it won't matter but we will know by week 2.

 

[OB1]

Average moviegoers don't pay much attention to week 2 numbers, so having a solid opening weekend is far more important than the week 2 drop off (as long as you aren't dropping 70%), which the preview screenings will definitely help with. If D&D can get to $5-7M in previews (reported Friday) that should lead into a solid opening (JW4 did 7M on way to 70M).

The big fight in week 2 will be against the Super Mario Bros movie, which is tracking at a $70M opening, but apparently the review embargo for that film is being lifted just 6 hours before the film opens next Wednesday (usually a sign that the film is not very good). That may not matter much given Mario brand recognition, but could allow D&D to stay competitive that week (which is spring break for much of the US).

Not much more competition until GotG3 in May, so D&D will rely on positive word of mouth through April to push it's totals towards $400M worldwide to be a success. That will largely come down to how well it plays under 25 and with women as well as how much repeat business it get's from D&D fans. I can see a situation where Mario crushes D&D on week 2, but D&D pulls back ahead in week 3.

 

[darjr]

I saw it again tonight and I liked it. Some the antics weren’t as funny second time round but I was surrounded by laughter. I think it tugged at my heart strings just as strongly as the first time.

 

[teitan]

Opening weekend was apparently a hit as it outperformed expectations. It’s made 71.5 million over the weekend. Still a long ways to go to hit that magic 400+ it needs but a positive sign.

 

[Zardnaar]

Opening weekend was apparently a hit as it outperformed expectations. It’s made 71.5 million over the weekend. Still a long ways to go to hit that magic 400+ it needs but a positive sign.

That just means the predictions were somewhat correct. Ones that came out after early releases.

Thise expectations were industry Ines we don't know Hasbros/Paramount ones.

 

[teitan]

That just means the predictions were somewhat correct. Ones that came out after early releases.

Thise expectations were industry Ines we don't know Hasbros/Paramount ones.

That’s a lot more than the industry expectations were. Those were 65 million at best.

 

[Zardnaar]

That’s a lot more than the industry expectations were. Those were 65 million at best.

Only beat the expectations marginally.

Its all downhill from here as well long way to go to go to the bare minimum break even point.

See what the drop off is week 2.

 

[teitan]

Only beat the expectations marginally.

Its all downhill from here as well long way to go to go to the bare minimum break even point.

See what the drop off is week 2.

Next weekend is Mario and after that for several weeks those films have no competition. The word of mouth is excellent on the film. It will have legs. It will dip week 2 because of Mario. Then it will play for the long haul as Paramount has said it’s not getting a truncated run like a lot of films have been getting. They’re expecting Uncharted not Marvel.

Mario is expected to be 85-90 million dollar opening. That’s big but it’s a kids movie. The movie line up is D&D, John Wick, Scream 6. JW already had a massive weekend and dipped out 60+% the following week. After this weekend it’s going to be slim pickings for a few. D&D will be number 2 for a couple weeks.

 

[Zardnaar]

Next weekend is Mario and after that for several weeks those films have no competition. The word of mouth is excellent on the film. It will have legs. It will dip week 2 because of Mario. Then it will play for the long haul as Paramount has said it’s not getting a truncated run like a lot of films have been getting. They’re expecting Uncharted not Marvel.

Mario is expected to be 85-90 million dollar opening. That’s big but it’s a kids movie. The movie line up is D&D, John Wick, Scream 6. JW already had a massive weekend and dipped out 60+% the following week. After this weekend it’s going to be slim pickings for a few. D&D will be number 2 for a couple weeks.

And rhara why I'm not xalling it a flop yet. From memory a huge % of a movies total uis in the first few weeks. The onger it runs the more money the theatre collects.

I woukd expect it to drop 30-70% like every other movie pretty much does.

70, 50, 35, 23 roughly at 30%around 180 million.

70, 35, 18, 9 at 50%. 155 approx.

70, 21, 7, 3 70% 100+ approx.

I rounded up. Sure there's month two but the tail end us comparatively tiny the drop off gets smaller each week. And almost golf of that is foreign (less money for studio)

None of those numbers are near 300 million and it's unlikely even the first number gets anywhere close.

30% is probably a best case number as well. Sure the drop rate will vary but it's pretty much going to drop each week.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

And rhara why I'm not xalling it a flop yet. From memory a huge % of a movies total uis in the first few weeks. The onger it runs the more money the theatre collects.

I woukd expect it to drop 30-70% like every other movie pretty much does.

70, 50, 35, 23 roughly at 30%around 180 million.

70, 35, 18, 9 at 50%. 155 approx.

70, 21, 7, 3 70% 100+ approx.

I rounded up. Sure there's month two but the tail end us comparatively tiny the drop off gets smaller each week. And almost golf of that is foreign (less money for studio)

None of those numbers are near 300 million and it's unlikely even the first number gets anywhere close.

30% is probably a best case number as well. Sure the drop rate will vary but it's pretty much going to drop each week.

Lets see. I would not write it off just yet.
To reiterate: Dungeons & Dragons movie has a way slower ramp upp time than most movies due to bad reputation. Completely unlike John Wick that van piggyback on the previous one.

Also, as D&D is also for Kids, going there immediately is not mandatory. You want to ask some friends first if the violence and so on is ok. And if it is really funny for kids.

Going by my peer group, there are still way more potential moviegoers than usual. Word of mouth might really help the movie to keep up.

And even if it does not do 300k, it might still pave the way for a sequel.

 

[Mirtek]

Our cinema had it in it's smallest theater, has actually been years since I saw a movie that was shown in this particular room.

Apparently at least this one cinema lacks faith in the movie.

PS: Now I recall my last movie in this room, it way the Dragon Ball Super movie. They're really using this smallest room for niche movies.

Hope this is not something that other cinemas in Germany are doing to this movie

 

[Zardnaar]

Our cinema had it in it's smallest theater, has actually been years since I saw a movie that was shown in this particular room.

Apparently at least this one cinema lacks faith in the movie.

PS: Now I recall my last movie in this room, it way the Dragon Ball Super movie. They're really using this smallest room for niche movies.

Hope this is not something that other cinemas in Germany are doing to this movie

Anecdote D&D is a bigger brand in US than other countries.

 

[teitan]

Lets see. I would not write it off just yet.
To reiterate: Dungeons & Dragons movie has a way slower ramp upp time than most movies due to bad reputation. Completely unlike John Wick that van piggyback on the previous one.

Also, as D&D is also for Kids, going there immediately is not mandatory. You want to ask some friends first if the violence and so on is ok. And if it is really funny for kids.

Going by my peer group, there are still way more potential moviegoers than usual. Word of mouth might really help the movie to keep up.

And even if it does not do 300k, it might still pave the way for a sequel.

That last bit is why I say they are going to watch home release and streaming numbers on this one. A lot of major franchises have come from sleeper hits. They didn’t invest 150 million in a movie that might hit 350-400 million in theaters. They’re planning long term and merchandising on this one and there is a lot on this one. Word of mouth will lead to strong streaming and home release rentals and sales. Everyone I saw this with is already lined up to buy it. I think half already have tickets to see it again or have seen it again already. The souvenir cups and popcorn bowls are selling out. That’s all added to the bottom line for the movie. Anything with Chris Pine’s face on it, Hugh Grant etc. that sales adds to the bottom line with it. Does anybody else remember when Star Wars movies, the prequels, were paid off before the movies even hit the theater thanks to all the merch they were moving already? D&D isn’t going to do that level no but every graphic novel, toy, kids book, blanket, soda can, etc generates revenue for this movie. You add all that in too? Batman Begins leads to the Dark Knight. Batman Begins wasn’t a massive hit either. It became one after leaving theaters. It made its budget but not it’s advertising costs back until the DVD release.

 

[Zardnaar]

That last bit is why I say they are going to watch home release and streaming numbers on this one. A lot of major franchises have come from sleeper hits. They didn’t invest 150 million in a movie that might hit 350-400 million in theaters. They’re planning long term and merchandising on this one and there is a lot on this one. Word of mouth will lead to strong streaming and home release rentals and sales. Everyone I saw this with is already lined up to buy it. I think half already have tickets to see it again or have seen it again already. The souvenir cups and popcorn bowls are selling out. That’s all added to the bottom line for the movie. Anything with Chris Pine’s face on it, Hugh Grant etc. that sales adds to the bottom line with it. Does anybody else remember when Star Wars movies, the prequels, were paid off before the movies even hit the theater thanks to all the merch they were moving already? D&D isn’t going to do that level no but every graphic novel, toy, kids book, blanket, soda can, etc generates revenue for this movie. You add all that in too? Batman Begins leads to the Dark Knight. Batman Begins wasn’t a massive hit either. It became one after leaving theaters. It made its budget but not it’s advertising costs back until the DVD release.

I would say they invested 150 million with higher expectations than what we're seeing.

It's not a smash hit movie a few were predicting based purely on personal bias.

Hell on Enworld some were thinking billion dollars