D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[teitan]

Depends on the final numbers.

D&D is trending towards 100 million under. Very big difference between those two numbers. D&D could come in around 200 million through to 220ish.

If it comes in over 250 or closer to 300 it means the other factors might drag it over the line. More money is better when talking about box office not exactly hard concept.

They spent a lot of money on an unproven IP (movie wise) that got sandwiched between John Wick and Mario.

175 x 2 is 350. 350-300 is 50 not 25. Also D&D has 8 more weeks in theaters… it’s going to do more than 200 million. Easy. It’s not Shazam 2.

 

[Zardnaar]

175 x 2 is 350. 350-300 is 50 not 25. Also D&D has 8 more weeks in theaters… it’s going to do more than 200 million. Easy. It’s not Shazam 2.

Box office mojo has it under 4 million in weekend, and 2 million weekday.

This time next week it's probably going to be half that. Currently it's on $124 million.

After that it's outside the 3 week window probably half again in 2 weeks.

Then it's just a trickle end of April through May. Guardians of the Galaxy is landing in May. Mario 2.0 perhaps.

So it's likely to get something like less than 10 million this week, next weekend 7-10 million. Let's chuck on 10 million just because.

That's 154 million give or take then probably something like half a million per day through May then it's either out of theaters or screening on so few screens it may as well be.

So it's will likely limp in to 190-220 million depending on exact rates of decline.

It's numbers won't be any better next weekend if it "only" falls 50% it's under 10 million next weekend. It dropped 10-15% more this weekend than Deadline projected.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Best case scenario drop of 30% (wildly optimistic) puts it under 10 million next weekend and it's per day revenue will be around a million.

Weekend totals 30% (wildly optimistic) 15 (this week was 14.4 approx), 10. 7, 4 million.

50% (still optimistic) 7, 3.5, 1.75.

Weekdays will have similar decline.

Do your own math plug in various numbers required.

 

[Retreater]

If we're combing through the numbers in hopes that the movie will merely "break even," I think we can agree that it's not a mega success on which to lay the foundations of a new franchise.

 

[bedir than]

Box office mojo has it under 4 million in weekend, and 2 million weekday.

This is counterfactual, wildly inaccurate

So it's likely to get something like less than 10 million this week, next weekend 7-10 million. Let's chuck on 10 million just because.

You're expecting a movie that grew by a third in international weekend 2 to go down to zero in weekend 3?
Interesting, and completely irrational

Edited out an aggressive tone

 

[CommodoreKong]

I hope they are recover the money in the first month. Paramount should realise now D&D is their best card to compete against famous franchises by rival companies.

And videogame studios could be interested now into collabs and licences.

Ehh Paramount has a lot of big franchises (Star Trek, Mission Impossible, Top Gun, Transformers, TMNT, Sonic the Hedgehog, Scream). I wouldn't say D&D is their best card to compete against famous franchises by other companies. Maybe fantasy franchise but not every company has a big fantasy franchise.

 

[payn]

If we're combing through the numbers in hopes that the movie will merely "break even," I think we can agree that it's not a mega success on which to lay the foundations of a new franchise.

No, not necessarily. I think this was always an uphill battle for D&D. For the small number of novel and setting fans there is an established lore, but for the general public D&D is basically nonexistent. D&D for better or worse is essentially generic lord of the Rings. They need to build something more substantial. I think a sequel built on the blocks with DADHAT could actually be a much better movie and launching pad. Combine that with some stream screen offerings (like Dragonlance) and both familiarity and variety could lead to a successful franchise. IF MCU is the goal post though, no shot in hell.

 

[John R Davis]

Super Mario has done bonkers numbers. Despite its poor reviews.
Ah well.

 

[FrogReaver]

I went out looking for some revenue percentages. All The info I have found is saying box office only accounts for about 50% of 'direct' film revenues. Some movies generate more in revenue from merchandising than they do from the movies themselves. In short, a film can be expected to make about what it makes from the box office in TV and Video/DVD sales. Tack on merchandising and the revenue forecast isn't nearly as bleak as @Zardnaar is making it out to be.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

the revenue forecast isn't nearly as bleak as @Zardnaar is making it out to be.

The new ENWorld motto.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Super Mario has done bonkers numbers. Despite its poor reviews.
Ah well.

It's a kid movie, which means reviews make almost zero difference. There have been 72 Ice Age movies, despite all of them being like a drill to the skull of adults.

Tack on how wildly popular Mario is with Gen Z Americans -- again, there were employees cosplaying at the theater I took my kids to on Saturday -- and it was always going to be a juggernaut.

Adults who are upset that someone made a movie for kids will have to content themselves with 75%+ of movies made purely for adults.