clearstream
(He, Him)
It's more a thought experiment. How might I design a method to offer players something like "real" magic, meaning what was historically called magical on Earth.Then I really doubt that players will use such an unreliable system. Given a choice between very unreliable and hit it with a stick, the stick wins.
Players would need to be able to make rough observations that were sometimes right, sometimes wrong. They'd need to be able to form theories that were right just one time, or wrong when I followed it but right when you did. Meeting @Clint_L's question head on, the effects would have to be undeniable. When it works it's visible and miraculous! But it can never be predictable or repeatable in a scientific way... never usable as a technology.
And thus you are right: I agree with your forecast that players wouldn't want to use such a system. Ironically, it's almost scientific to say that game design should sometimes be curiousity led. I'm curious about whether magic-as-magic rather than magic-as-technology could be captured in gameplay.