D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

bedir than · Jul 8, 2023

Zardnaar said:
John Wick and Mario are ahead of HAT and came out at similar time (a week apart).

It seems D&D did well for a few weeks and then got beaten.

Except the data, clearly linked and even screen capped shows that you are wrong when it comes to on demand and that you are lying when it comes to streaming (because Mario's release date for streaming release is August 3rd.

The truth is available.

edited to add John Wick 4, which is also getting its ass kicked by Themberchaud and Honor Among Thieves

John Wick: Chapter 4 TOP 10 • FlixPatrol

Is John Wick: Chapter 4 trending on Netflix, HBO, Amazon or Disney+ in the past?

flixpatrol.com

mamba · Jul 8, 2023

bedir than said:
Except the data, clearly linked and even screen capped shows that you are wrong when it comes to on demand and that you are lying when it comes to streaming (because Mario's release date for streaming release is August 3rd.

The truth is available.

edited to add John Wick 4, which is also getting its ass kicked by Themberchaud and Honor Among Thieves

John Wick: Chapter 4 TOP 10 • FlixPatrol

Is John Wick: Chapter 4 trending on Netflix, HBO, Amazon or Disney+ in the past?

flixpatrol.com

HAT on Amazon has a score of 840 over its 63 days for an average of 9.9. JW4 has 1,078 over its 45 days for an average of of 24, so more than double HATs numbers per day…

iTunes has HAT slightly ahead at 270 per day vs 255 for JW4, and JW4 has been available slightly shorter, so the average will probably drop a little by the time it reaches HAT’s number of days

On Google HAT is definitely well ahead.

Any idea how large the three are compared to each other? Otherwise this is pretty inconclusive

Jaeger · Jul 8, 2023

bedir than said:
My statement about your lack of factual data was your mythology in regards to Super Mario's streaming power. It's not streaming yet.

I only mention Mario's VOD sales in highlighting your faulty comparison.

My exact Quote:

Jaeger said:
An apples and oranges reference at best.

The rankings have no monetary context.

You are taking the VOD revenue of a 1.3billion mega-hit, and trying to infer a correlation via rankings to a film with far less audience pull, that fell short around 100m in its box office run.

Where I did 100% err was in my next paragraph of questions, specifically this:

Jaeger said:
What are the Vod/Streaming SALES numbers of Mario vs. HaT?

The /Streaming was a mistake, as it allowed you to grab onto the addition of '/Streaming' as a way of avoiding my questions.

I will now rectify that error.

bedir than said:
But you still declare it superior to Honor Among Thieves. You then misquote and misreference me in order to make me look a fool. The context was clear.

Let's make it 100% clear.

You said:

bedir than said:
And, I've used zard's link about Super Mario's on demand earnings in reference to potential income for Honor Among Thieves, while not concocting a magical formula to assess anything.

For supposedly having strict standards the "flop" insisters keep ignoring factual data

Please supply the factual data for how this is a valid reference:

How do Mario's VOD earnings serve as a reference to potential income for Honor Among Thieves?

You keep citing rankings. But the rankings have no monetary context.

What do the VOD rankings mean in Dollars?

What data or recognized metric are you using to extrapolate potential income from the VOD rankings?

What are the VOD SALES numbers of Mario vs. HaT? (This would clear things up real quick)

Henadic Theologian · Jul 8, 2023

LordEntrails said:
Everyone here is talking about short term profits, not long term BRAND profits.

Hasbro has stated that this is about building a brand and a movie franchise. That means they are more concerned with the profits of the next 10 movies (and TV shows, and merchandising) than they are about this one (HAT).

Every day my wife spends money for companies that do not see a direct return on the money she spends. It's called branding. It's not about turning a profit on the current product (if there even is one, many times its simple corporate branding for name recognition with no product being sold). It's about building a brand so your next product (or the one after that) turn a profit and makes up for your branding investment.

Its about when they expect to see a ROI. You all seem stuck on evaluating if this movie is a success or not based upon short term profitability of the movie itself. Not on the long term profitability of the brand (D&D).

Examples: Nike's "Seen it All" brand campaign this year. They are not selling a shoe, not directly, they are selling their brand, their "lifestyle". Or DDB New Zealand. Or the ones Dove runs periodically about authenticity and the female body.

Yea, that argument made no sense to me and was not what I thought I was commenting on/supporting. Mea Culpa.

This all comes down to how you do your accounting. If HAT total cost is $250mil but through it's life only brings in $200 mil, BUT increases the brand so much that 1 million more players start buying books, and the next movie makes a @200 mil profit and the TV show makes a profit, and the branded merchandise sells more...

HAT will not be credited with turning a profit, even though it helped increase profits of the Brand. But, it will have been a significant factor and investment in the brands future.

Branding is different than marketing.

Branding is all about market recognition so the next time you sell a product, you sell more of it. It's about investing in your future, not making money on your current product.

In this case, it's so that the next 10 movies they make will be financial successes. Not so that HAT ever breaks even or makes money on its own.

You're wrong, at least in the short term and in the way profitability in this thread is being discussed. I know it doesn't make sense. at first blush, but many companies step back and think long term. (And, many don't.) They aren't worried about what product A sells, they worry about what product A says about their brand. What it's impacts to product B, C, D... means.

Yes long term they have to make money. But not in the near term or even on a single product. Weren't you the one who mentioned "loss leaders"? i.e. I'm going to sell this product at a loss so I can sell these ten other products for a bigger profit?

It helps to think of DADHAT as a giant ad for D&D, Paramount+, and the Forgotten Realms first and a great movie second.

Its the same deal with GI Joe that is not only getting a 4th movie, but also a GI Joe Transformers crossover movie. Not of the first 3 made any real money at the box office and the last one was a massive flop at the box office, yet new ones still keep getting made.

LuisCarlos17f · Jul 8, 2023

I guess the level of succes or failure may depend on expectations held beforehand.

D&D enjoys its period of peak popularity, but within TTRPG industry, but as multimedia franchise and cash-cow, they are only begining, and there is still a long path to be walked. D&D isn't very loved out from geek community.

It could be a flop for the standards of Disney blockbuster production in 2020 but if we are talking about a Paramount 2023 production then the things are different.

Zardnaar · Jul 8, 2023

Henadic Theologian said:
It helps to think of DADHAT as a giant ad for D&D, Paramount+, and the Forgotten Realms first and a great movie second.

Its the same deal with GI Joe that is not only getting a 4th movie, but also a GI Joe Transformers crossover movie. Not of the first 3 made any real money at the box office and the last one was a massive flop at the box office, yet new ones still keep getting made.

GI Joe has 3/4 movies doing ok with 1 dud.

The ratio is reversed with D&D films and HAT is the exception and has done worse than 3/4 GI Joe first.

Putting things into perspective.

mamba · Jul 8, 2023

LuisCarlos17f said:
It could be a flop for the standards of Disney blockbuster production in 2020 but if we are talking about a Paramount 2023 production then the things are different.

I don’t think movie studios have any expectation of losing money on a project, otherwise they would not bother.

I am not sure the ROI (in percent) that Disney expects is all that different from the one Paramount expects either.

The difference between a Disney blockbuster and HAT is how much each movie cost. With the blockbuster costing two to three times as much, it also needs to make two to three times as much to break even.

bedir than · Jul 8, 2023

mamba said:
HAT on Amazon has a score of 840 over its 63 days for an average of 9.9. JW4 has 1,078 over its 45 days for an average of of 24, so more than double HATs numbers per day…

There's an odd behavior in Honor Among Thieves tracking for Amazon. It has several days when supposedly zero copies were sold and a steep decline and rise on either side of that. There's no other movie with that pattern, which likely indicates a data issue not a sales issue.

I also tend to compare them over the same time period of availability, because I don't think D&D deserves extra credit for being released earlier.

Wick 4 on Amazon

Honor Among Thieves over the same time period

Wick has the edge on Amazon, but as you point out on Google it isn't a close contest.

As to which one generates more monies for the studio? I don't know (unless the studio is in the corporate umbrella of the service).

My only claims about digital and streaming are the D&D: Honor Among Thieves has the same, if not more, interest there than the massively more popular in theaters movies. This is an indication, but not certainty, that the Aug 3 Paramount Global and July 23 (probably) Hasbro report will show positively for Honor Among Thieves, because the digital experience has been massively popular, the streaming where available has been strong and the search results for D&D earned an extraordinary boost.

Since Paramount is not in a 100 million dollar hole as some claim (it's about 50 million based on where their distribution) and Hasbro did have a clear statement that the movie was part of building a franchise and advertising their game with a hole of less than 30 million both sides are likely to continue their joint project.

Other evidence to support this conclusion is that Paramount didn't cancel their first look agreement with Daley & Goldstein, they didn't cancel their agreement with eOne regarding the TV show (despite many other streamers cancelling shows) and that Hasbro has continued to pursue their sale of eOne because they know they can make more money through their owned IP than they do through producing huge hits like Yellowjackets and Grey's Anatomy.

If Hasbro felt that D&D as a franchise couldn't make them more money than those shows they would cancel the film/series universe. If Paramount felt that the movie was the type of failure some claim here, with a hole of 150 million as claimed without evidence here, they would cancel the TV projects that they signed because of the movie.

Zardnaar · Jul 9, 2023

bedir than said:
There's an odd behavior in Honor Among Thieves tracking for Amazon. It has several days when supposedly zero copies were sold and a steep decline and rise on either side of that. There's no other movie with that pattern, which likely indicates a data issue not a sales issue.

I also tend to compare them over the same time period of availability, because I don't think D&D deserves extra credit for being released earlier.

Wick 4 on Amazon
View attachment 289645

Honor Among Thieves over the same time period
View attachment 289646
Wick has the edge on Amazon, but as you point out on Google it isn't a close contest.

As to which one generates more monies for the studio? I don't know (unless the studio is in the corporate umbrella of the service).

My only claims about digital and streaming are the D&D: Honor Among Thieves has the same, if not more, interest there than the massively more popular in theaters movies. This is an indication, but not certainty, that the Aug 3 Paramount Global and July 23 (probably) Hasbro report will show positively for Honor Among Thieves, because the digital experience has been massively popular, the streaming where available has been strong and the search results for D&D earned an extraordinary boost.

Since Paramount is not in a 100 million dollar hole as some claim (it's about 50 million based on where their distribution) and Hasbro did have a clear statement that the movie was part of building a franchise and advertising their game with a hole of less than 30 million both sides are likely to continue their joint project.

Other evidence to support this conclusion is that Paramount didn't cancel their first look agreement with Daley & Goldstein, they didn't cancel their agreement with eOne regarding the TV show (despite many other streamers cancelling shows) and that Hasbro has continued to pursue their sale of eOne because they know they can make more money through their owned IP than they do through producing huge hits like Yellowjackets and Grey's Anatomy.

If Hasbro felt that D&D as a franchise couldn't make them more money than those shows they would cancel the film/series universe. If Paramount felt that the movie was the type of failure some claim here, with a hole of 150 million as claimed without evidence here, they would cancel the TV projects that they signed because of the movie.

You're extrapolating if limited Dara though and incomplete information.

Steaming generates very little income directly. VoD is easier.

Movies also have legs. Basically the longer it screens for the more money.

D&D has already fallen off the bandwagon so to speak.
. One debate going around atm isn't if VoD is good but is it undermining theatrical release which is worth more money still.

By that they mean if a movie is being released within a month or two of theatrical release is that a good thing?

Mario and John Wick were noth released around the same time as HAT but essentially made their production budget week 1.

This also compounds the earlier the movie makes its money the more money they get. Generally a movie makes around a third of its money opening weekend, another third
Week 2 &3 then tails off from there.

D&DHAT followed that pattern. The writing was also on the wall week
1 it needed around double what it got.
If it did do double on its box office run it would be similar to John Wick (which cost less to make)

bedir than · Jul 9, 2023

Zardnaar said:
Steaming generates very little income directly. VoD is easier.

Right, I'm pointing out VoD when comparing the three movies. You keep saying Wick and Mario are better on streaming, which is IMPOSSIBLE as neither of the other two movies are streaming.

Zardnaar said:
D&D has already fallen off the bandwagon so to speak.

No, it hasn't. You just quoted the post with links and screen caps showing that the popularity of Honor Among Thieves remains incredibly strong now almost 2 months after being released on VoD. We're nearing 45 days straight as the most popular on demand movie on Google, for example.

There's no reading of the VoD data that can insist that it's losing popularity. That's just plain untrue.

Zardnaar said:
Mario and John Wick were noth released around the same time as HAT but essentially made their production budget week 1.

You're still talking box office, which is silly. The box is known.
The VoD looks to be stronger for Honor Among Thieves than the two other movies.

You originally asked "Will Honor Among Thieves be a financial success?" in this very thread. The answer isn't something you like and so you've invented many, many falsehoods.

D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

bedir than

Full Moon Storyteller

John Wick: Chapter 4 TOP 10 • FlixPatrol

mamba

Legend

John Wick: Chapter 4 TOP 10 • FlixPatrol

Jaeger

That someone better

Henadic Theologian

Legend

LuisCarlos17f

Legend

Zardnaar

Legend

mamba

Legend

bedir than

Full Moon Storyteller

Zardnaar

Legend

bedir than

Full Moon Storyteller

Similar Threads

Voidrunner's Codex