Changeover poll

[Edena_of_Neith]

72% have tried 4E. That's more than 7 in 10 gamers who posted to this poll. Had it been just that, the poll would have indicated that the majority of those polled had either fully or partially converted to 4E.

But there is that 21% who say they tried 4E, then went back completely to prior editions.
When you add that in, only 51% are completely with 4E or partially with 4E.
It is notable, within the poll. The most notable thing in the poll, really.

Since some people, as noted, would have changed their vote, consider there to be a margin of error of a couple of percent, obviously.

 

[RichGreen]

partial changeover

Hi,

I've got two long-running 3.5 campaigns to finish (The Banewarrens & Bastion of Broken Souls), then we're switching to 4e (Parsantium campaign). I'm also going to be running a pulp d20 Modern/Adventure/Thrilling Tales campaign.

At the moment, I'm playing in a final 3.5 game and also Keep on the Shadowfell.

Cheers


Richard

 

[Maggan]

When you add that in, only 51% are completely with 4E or partially with 4E.
It is notable, within the poll. The most notable thing in the poll, really

Three months into the product life cycle, 51 percent of exisiting players migrating and playing the new edition is a stunning success, if one puts credence to polls like this.

/M

 

[jokamachi]

Did I say that the poll was statistically valid? Did I say that the sample size was sufficient to make marketing decisions?

No. I merely made an observation.

If- and that's a big if- numbers like the poll's hold up over time, that would be bad news for WotC.

700 votes later, the numbers hold up, and everything Wotc says these days seems overly confident...

Read the reviews for 4e on Amazon. Now compare them to reviews for 3e.

Speaks volumes.

 

[El Mahdi]

Three months into the product life cycle, 51 percent of exisiting players migrating and playing the new edition is a stunning success, if one puts credence to polls like this.

/M

I don't understand. How is this a stunning success? I understand the percentage of people switching to 4E is probably about the same as people switching from 2E to 3E in the same time period. But, 49% said they weren't going to switch or tried 4E, said No Thank You, and went back to an older edition (probably mostly 3.xE). Again, How is that a stunning success? WoTC just lost 49% of their customer base. Their decisions have split the market and limited their customer base. I would imagine, as time goes on, that some of that 49% might still make there way to 4E - But listening to the opinions of those who aren't switching (very strong opinions I might add), I would suspect that it would be a very small percentage. WoTC has successfully (or unsuccessfully if your WoTC) polarized their customer base. I don't see how that can ever be thought of, by any metric, a stunning success.

 

[Derren]

Read the reviews for 4e on Amazon. Now compare them to reviews for 3e.

Speaks volumes.

Do you think so? The average reviews of the core books at Amazon is slightly worse than the 3.5E ones (with more votes) and, except for the gift set, the negative reviews outnumber the positive ones similar to the poll result here.
And the 3.0E reviews are much, much better than the 4E ones.

Still, to me that doesn't "speak volumes".

 

[El Mahdi]

The thing I find most interesting about these polls, comments and opinions of posters on the forum, and comments/reviews on websites such as Amazon, is how polarized the positions are. People either LOVE 4E, or HATE 4E. There is almost no middle ground. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't remember the change from 2E to 3E being so polarized. Even if the percentage of changeover, at the same amount of time, between 2E to 3E and 3E to 4E is about the same, I think the difference is that people just hadn't invested in or really looked at 3E yet as opposed to such a large amount of people seeing, and even trying 4E and not converting. Whether the polls are statistically relevent or not, whether oppinions or reviews can really be trusted or are just a very small percentage of customers, it is undeniable that WoTC customer base is Extremely polarized. The only historical example I can think of, where this kind of customer polarization took place, was when Coke switched formulas (and we all know how that turned out).

 

[jadrax]

The only historical example I can think of, where this kind of customer polarization took place, was when Coke switched formulas (and we all know how that turned out).

Things that have equally polarised the Internet.

Every single change in any Online Game.
Every single change in any Comic Book.
Every single change in anything, ever.

 

[Maggan]

I don't understand. How is this a stunning success?

The life cycle of an edition is measured in years, and the core books will sell throughout this life cycle. To expect everyone to switch over at once is unrealistic. And having a 51% adoption rate 3 months after release is by any metric a stunning success.

Imagine if Microsoft had achieved a 51% conversion of Windows XP to Windows Vista in three months. Seems impossible? Well, yes, because it is impossible to pull everyone over by flicking a switch. It's a process.

I would be very, very, very surprised if WotC are planning to rope in even 55% of the current players in the first six months, even a year. They probably have a multi-year plan for that.

WoTC just lost 49% of their customer base.

Did they? 3e sales were stalling, falling, crashing to the ground according to WotC and several third party publishers.

So does 49% of the people not playing 4e equal 49% of the paying customers that were spending money on 3e at the end? I don't think so.

And don't we also know that gamers will complain until they're blue in the face, and then stick it to the man by ... buying lots of stuff anyway. It's the power of the brand, and it's a tough cookie to ignore.

/M

 

[El Mahdi]

Okay. These sound like valid arguments Maggan. And since I see that you are a real game designer involved with real game companies and publishers, I will defer to your expertise. (Really. I'm not being sarcastic.)

However, what about this polarization with customers, and with 3PP? Did it seem this bad with 2E to 3E (except with 3PP - I don't think there really was a 3PP market until 3E)? Or do you feel this is a non-issue? I'm interested in your opinion of this aspect.