D&D and the rising pandemic

[Enevhar Aldarion]

Just ate breakfast. Breakfast cereal that expired four months ago. Did a taste test last night and it was fine.

This is something that could use a lot more pointing out to people. Stuff that does not have to be refrigerated/frozen or is not dairy or bakery, will last long past the best by/use by/etc dates on packaging, if they are still sealed.

That cereal was still good because, I am assuming, it was still sealed before you ate it. If it had been opened when you first bought it and still on the shelf for four months past the best by date, then it would have probably been pretty nasty.

 

[NotAYakk]

Unfortunately kicking the can down the road and slowing down the rate of infection to the level that hospitals can handle may be the best we can hope for now. Containment may have been an option at one point but it is no longer.

"The level that hospitals can handle" is an outbreak spread out over about 10 years.

80,000 ICU beds in USA (as an example country). Approx 5% of infected need it. Infected need it for approx 20 days. So 80,000 / .05 * 20 = can handle 80,000 new people getting this disease per day, if 100% of ICU beds (including Federal reserve ones) are used only for this.

300,000,000/80,000 = 3750 days =~ 10 years.

So you can do better if you mass produce ICU beds, but then you run into Doctor and Nurse shortages, which are harder to mass produce. And most existing ICU beds are being used today to save people's lives.

You need to do better than "keeping infection below the point where hospitals can handle it". Because we have, on the population level, 0 ICU beds per person within rounding error. And this disease needs closer to 1 ICU bed per person.

And by "we" I mean "every country in the world has 0 ICU beds per person within rounding error."

(ICU beds in this case mean respirator equipped beds, or more serious, like the ones who breathe for you without using your lungs)

People keep on saying "well maybe this isn't that bad". I get it. I don't want it to be this bad either.

 

[Zardnaar]

This is something that could use a lot more pointing out to people. Stuff that does not have to be refrigerated/frozen or is not dairy or bakery, will last long past the best by/use by/etc dates on packaging, if they are still sealed.

That cereal was still good because, I am assuming, it was still sealed before you ate it. If it had been opened when you first bought it and still on the shelf for four months past the best by date, then it would have probably been pretty nasty.

It had been opened but was in ziplock bag.

The other one is still sealed.

Drunk some Russian beer recently. 6 months last bb date twas fine.

Wife went on cleaning binge recently and threw out dated chilli powder. Be useful around about now.

November 2019, was opened probably 6-8 months ago. Almost got thrown out, nope breakfast.

 

[THEMNGMNT]

That's what proponents of the herd plan were proposing.

Netherlands might be going down that path. More dead now vs more dead later. Either way more dead.

Well, not quite. The US government plan is describing an anticipated situation in the future--not advocating for it.

And the choice isn't between "more dead now vs more dead later". The choice is between having a higher chance of dying if you contract the virus vs having a lower chance of dying if you contract the virus. How we get from the former to the latter is by flattening the curve.

Be well.

 

[Umbran]

300,000,000/80,000 = 3750 days =~ 10 years.

In this step, you are assuming that every person in the US gets infected, yes?

That's... a highly questionable assumption.

 

[Sacrosanct]

Whole foods is opening their first hour for 60 years and older. Good on them. Every store needs to do this.

 

[ad_hoc]

When the cure is as bad or worse than the disease, you have a problem.

Do remember - the Great Depression can be regarded as the cause for about 7 million deaths, mostly due to starvation or malnutrition. If the isolation causes economic depression, and folks lose their homes and food security, they aren't going to be self-isolating - they'll be in shelters or on the streets... getting sick.

Thus, there are limts to how far we can take isolation, and have it be helpful.

The difference is that we have never had more than we do now.

We have ample amounts of food and shelter.

We don't have ample amounts of money. The solution is to stop caring about the money that the super rich have and make sure the poor have what they need.

This could be a turning point for our societies.

 

[NotAYakk]

In this step, you are assuming that every person in the US gets infected, yes?

That's... a highly questionable assumption.

So 30% get infected not 100%. And half of beds are in use for Covid, not 100%. Only 6 and a half years. A half here, a double there, same ballpark.

The goal is a back of the napkin calculation. If you want a serious one, I linked the imperial college epidemiological paper here I think? COVID-19: Imperial researchers model likely impact of public health measures | Imperial News | Imperial College London

 

[Zardnaar]

The difference is that we have never had more than we do now.

We have ample amounts of food and shelter.

We don't have ample amounts of money. The solution is to stop caring about the money that the super rich have and make sure the poor have what they need.

This could be a turning point for our societies.

Problem is you need the money to keep stuff flowing to the poor.

For example in US they were planning on giving the airlines 80 billion. Give it to the people!!. Each person gets $250 to panic buy toilet paper vs keeping the planes running.

We need those planes for medicine delivery.

Out government is doing wage subsidies for 3 months and putting up welfare by $25 a week. The subsidy is about $500+ dollars.

But they can't keep that up long term. Over a year it's increasing spending by 50%.

And everyone's gonna be wanting to do the same thing (via borrowing). Eventually borrowing will be difficult.

 

[HarbingerX]

For those interested in how to interpret the numbers being reported. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research