Crunching the numbers, you would have:
5-foot radius: 6.0% chance, average damage 19.8
10-foot radius: 11.5% chance, average damage 23
15-foot radius: 20.2% chance, average damage 25.5
20-foot radius: 24.5% chance, average damage 28
25-foot radius: 20.2% chance, average damage 30.5
30-foot radius: 11.5% chance, average damage 33
35-foot radius: 4.5% chance, average damage 35.5
40-foot radius: 1.2% chance, average damage 38
More than 40 feet: 0.3% chance, average damage 40.8
I kind of like it. It's extremely volatile though, because the radius scales with the damage roll: Either you do a lot of damage in a big area (which is when you are most likely to hit allies), or a little damage in a small area. As a longtime wizard player who remembers the chaotic glory of AD&D blasting magic, that has some appeal, but I can also see how it could get unpleasantly swingy.
If you decide to try this in play, please let us know how it turns out!