D&D Movie/TV Guess the D&D Movie Opening Weekend Box Office Performance, and Win a Prize!

[Zardnaar]

Because tons of people are going to see John Wick and it's the movie getting the majority of the buzz and ads, as word of mouth on it is great, including among the people who didn't like John Wick 3.

Keanu Reeves making the rounds of late night interview shows is a lot more compelling than even Chris Pine, as I'm sure Chris Pine would be the first to concede.

I get that this is a D&D board, but let's not go crazy. By the time both leave theaters, John Wick 4 will have brought in a lot more money than Honor Among Thieves will, although HAT is clearly on its way to be a commercial success.

I think the D&D movie needed to clear more than 40 million or so opening weekend.
It was looking marginal at 50 million.

Movies make most of the money week 1-3. Week 1 is inflated from early release.

If it makes say 40 million week one, week 2 comes in around 20 million (30-40% drop, not inflated from early release) then say 15 million week 3 that's only 80 million being generous.

Double that for international box office.

That's only 160 million during its prime launch window. It needs 300 million to break even roughly. It's all downhill after the first 3 weeks and I made some generous assumptions there.

Seems to be trending towards a loss or outright flop. It needs a drastic uptick in week 1 numbers or very very low drop-off week 2 and 3 and/or gangbuster international figures.

Few weeks ago 50 million was a "low" debut hasn't even hit 40 yet AFAIK. It's real week 1 numbers ATM are closer to 30 million than 40 due to early release inflation.

But yeah these numbers don't look good to me tbh. Needs around 300 million minimum week 2 and 3 numbers are usually 30% minimum.

 

[gban007]

I think the D&D movie needed to clear more than 40 million or so opening weekend.
It was looking marginal at 50 million.

Movies make most of the money week 1-3. Week 1 is inflated from early release.

If it makes say 40 million week one, week 2 comes in around 20 million (30-40% drop, not inflated from early release) then say 15 million week 3 that's only 80 million being generous.

Double that for international box office.

That's only 160 million during its prime launch window. It needs 300 million to break even roughly. It's all downhill after the first 3 weeks and I made some generous assumptions there.

Seems to be trending towards a loss or outright flop. It needs a drastic uptick in week 1 numbers or very very low drop-off week 2 and 3 and/or gangbuster international figures.

Few weeks ago 50 million was a "low" debut hasn't even hit 40 yet AFAIK. It's real week 1 numbers ATM are closer to 30 million than 40 due to early release inflation.

But yeah these numbers don't look good to me tbh. Needs around 300 million minimum week 2 and 3 numbers are usually 30% minimum.

Where is that 50 million being a low debut coming from? Most of the projections were putting this in the 30 to 36 million range, and it looks to be exceeding that. At one point you reckoned if it was below your estimate of around 36 million it would be a flop, it is coming in higher than that but you seem to still be describing it as a flop.

 

[Zardnaar]

Where is that 50 million being a low debut coming from? Most of the projections were putting this in the 30 to 36 million range, and it looks to be exceeding that. At one point you reckoned if it was below your estimate of around 36 million it would be a flop, it is coming in higher than that but you seem to still be describing it as a flop.

Early projections a while out was 50 million debut.

But needing to hit 300-400 million it was marginal to hit that on 50 million.
My guess was mid 30's I can't recall my exact number. I just took that 50 million number and lopped off a third.

When I made that guess it was before I knew about the early release counting towards week 1 figures.

It's to early to call it but it's gonna need some very good international figures and/or very low drop-off off rates to get close to 300 million and even that figure may be optimistic.

400-425 million its definitely made money (probably) under 300 million it loses money (probably).

That number in the middle 300-400/425 we don't have enough info on AFAIK specifically the marketing budget.

It's opening weekend numbers are artificially high so I would expect at least a 40% drop week two and possibly 80%.

Either number doesn't seem to add up to 300 million in a realistic time frame and the drop off tends to increase after the first 2-3 weeks.
So even with generous numbers and the bare minimum required it's not looking good IMHO.

Steampunkette also added its expected worldwide total opening weekend. It's international box office seems less than domestic it needed more than domestic with a very low drop off.

 

[Deset Gled]

Where is that 50 million being a low debut coming from? Most of the projections were putting this in the 30 to 36 million range, and it looks to be exceeding that. At one point you reckoned if it was below your estimate of around 36 million it would be a flop, it is coming in higher than that but you seem to still be describing it as a flop.

That's the neat thing about playing Whose Accounting Is It Anyway. Anything can be a flop. The script is made up and the dollars don't matter.

 

[darjr]

If they announce a sequel and tv shows you can bet it wasn't a "flop". But I realize that might take a bit longer to hear about.

 

[Parmandur]

Early projections a while out was 50 million debut.

But needing to hit 300-400 million it was marginal to hit that on 50 million.
My guess was mid 30's I can't recall my exact number. I just took that 50 million number and lopped off a third.

When I made that guess it was before I knew about the early release counting towards week 1 figures.

It's to early to call it but it's gonna need some very good international figures and/or very low drop-off off rates to get close to 300 million and even that figure may be optimistic.

400-425 million its definitely made money (probably) under 300 million it loses money (probably).

That number in the middle 300-400/425 we don't have enough info on AFAIK specifically the marketing budget.

It's opening weekend numbers are artificially high so I would expect at least a 40% drop week two and possibly 80%.

Either number doesn't seem to add up to 300 million in a realistic time frame and the drop off tends to increase after the first 2-3 weeks.
So even with generous numbers and the bare minimum required it's not looking good IMHO.

Steampunkette also added its expected worldwide total opening weekend. It's international box office seems less than domestic it needed more than domestic with a very low drop off.

All the early projections I saw were about $30-35 million, so this overperforming Hollywood expectations.

 

[CleverNickName]

If they announce a sequel and tv shows you can bet it wasn't a "flop". But I realize that might take a bit longer to hear about.

"No, see, I don't want it to be a success. So I'm going to say that if it produces fewer than four sequels then it's a flop. Because John Wick 4."
-Reddit

 

[darjr]

"No, see, I don't want it to be a success. So I'm going to say that if it produces fewer than four sequels then it's a flop. Because John Wick 4."
-Reddit

Has it got more shows than Star Wars?! No? FLOP!

 

[darjr]

Has it got more shows than Star Wars?! No? FLOP!

Actually I wonder if there is more in text than Star Wars? Novels and such. Just. Does that automatically make it a successful “franchise”?

 

[darjr]

Is it to late to make a guess?