D&D Movie/TV Guess the D&D Movie Opening Weekend Box Office Performance, and Win a Prize!

[Zardnaar]

One thing that could hurt Mario is the Wednesday opening. If audiences react poorly too it, that could open up some space for D&D to attract families next weekend and over US spring break. D&D will need to hold above $30M next weekend to give it a shot at $150 or better total in the US. Great to see the international numbers so strong. I think it get's to $300M worldwide for sure, with a shot at $400M. The later would ensure a sequel, the former would likely depend on how much Hasbro is willing to pony up for a 2nd feature.

It's not gonna hold above 30 million next weekend.

Best case scenario is a drop of 30% probably more likely over 50%. Especially since this week's numbers are pumped from early release.

So I would expect an even higher drop off week 2 than typical.

 

[CleverNickName]

Are you going of Sunday estimate, which is already out, or the Sunday final that will be revealed Monday?

I'm going by what is reported by BoxOfficeMojo for Domestic Weekend only. (There are different numbers being quoted in the thread from a couple different places, so just a reminder: the winner of this contest will be decided only by BoxOfficeMojo, and not any other reporting agency or numbers. )

 

[OB1]

@CleverNickName just note that BoxOfficeMojo will report the estimate today, but the final number will be updated Monday afternoon with the actuals, which will likely be a bit higher than the estimate (though not nearly enough to make me a winner).

@Zardnaar you're right that is how a typical film goes, but there are exceptions (Puss in Boots last Christmas being a great recent example).

 

[CleverNickName]

@CleverNickName just note that BoxOfficeMojo will report the estimate today, but the final number will be updated Monday afternoon with the actuals, which will likely be a bit higher than the estimate (though not nearly enough to make me a winner).

That's a good point.

I think I will "call it" on Wednesday...give them about 48 hours to settle on a number and update their website. I don't want to be in a situation where I report one winner, only to have BoxOfficeMojo change the numbers a few hours later.

 

[Steampunkette]

The current worldwide figures for Opening Weekend are $71 million.

Nice.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

It's not gonna hold above 30 million next weekend.

Best case scenario is a drop of 30% probably more likely over 50%. Especially since this week's numbers are pumped from early release.

So I would expect an even higher drop off week 2 than typical.

Actually I am not sure this time. Word of mouth is strong in my vicinity. People who were hesitant are now interested after they have been told the movie is actually good.
So we will see soon.

 

[CleverNickName]

On Reddit, there is a group of people who are very upset about how well this movie is performing, and they are holding up John Wick 4 as some kind of benchmark for box office success. They say things like "it's not doing as good as John Wick so it's pretty much a flop." They're weirdly insistent, too: if D&D:HAT outperforms JW4 on opening weekend, they will say "well it won't outperform the total box office so it flopped."

And if it does, they will say "well it won't outperform worldwide sales, so it flopped."

And if it does they'll probably say "well it didn't outperform sales in Cambodia, for the week of April 11, for matinee audiences, so it flopped."

For whatever reason, I get the feeling they need this movie to flop, and are using JW4 to "prove" that it already has.

I didn't really care much about John Wick Chapter 4; I don't watch a lot of sequels (much less sequels of sequels of sequels). But now, I'd truly like to see D&D:HAT outperform JW4 over the next few days in all categories...only so I could watch those loudmouths on Reddit eat crow.

Oh Internet, you rascal.

 

[Zardnaar]

Actually I am not sure this time. Word of mouth is strong in my vicinity. People who were hesitant are now interested after they have been told the movie is actually good.
So we will see soon.

A good drop off is 30% bad on around 70%.

Take away the early release figures then take 25-30% off that and that's best case scenario. Worst case is take away early realese figures and 70-75% of what's left.

By week 2 we can make a reasonable prediction as to its success if it's not obvious week 1 (big hit or flop).

Think it needs to clear around 300 minimum to break even. Potentially 400+ as we don't know the marketing budget iirc.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

How?

Because tons of people are going to see John Wick and it's the movie getting the majority of the buzz and ads, as word of mouth on it is great, including among the people who didn't like John Wick 3.

Keanu Reeves making the rounds of late night interview shows is a lot more compelling than even Chris Pine, as I'm sure Chris Pine would be the first to concede.

I get that this is a D&D board, but let's not go crazy. By the time both leave theaters, John Wick 4 will have brought in a lot more money than Honor Among Thieves will, although HAT is clearly on its way to be a commercial success.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

On Reddit, there is a group of people who are very upset about how well this movie is performing, and they are holding up John Wick 4 as some kind of benchmark for box office success. They say things like "it's not doing as good as John Wick so it's pretty much a flop." They're weirdly insistent, too: if D&D:HAT outperforms JW4 on opening weekend, they will say "well it won't outperform the total box office so it flopped."

And if it does, they will say "well it won't outperform worldwide sales, so it flopped."

And if it does they'll say "well it didn't outperform sales in Cambodia, for the week of April 11, so it flopped."

And so on. For whatever reason, I get the feeling they need this movie to flop, and are using JW4 to "prove" that it already has.

I didn't really care much about John Wick Chapter 4; I don't watch a lot of sequels (much less sequels of sequels of sequels). But now, I'd truly like to see D&D:HAT outperform JW4 over the next few days in all categories...only so I could watch those loudmouths on Reddit eat crow.

Oh Internet, you rascal.

Those people are silly, at best. But the John Wick franchise is a huge established franchise that plays exceptionally well all around the world, both because the script is pretty simple (Glass Onion, this ain't) and because the director has such love for international action movies and has an international cast.

One movie making more money than the other isn't a slam on the other movie. That's just how life and commerce go.