If though, you want guns to behave like guns, then D&D's hit point system models that poorly.
I think I found a typo in the sentence above. Try this:
"If though, you want weapons to behave like weapons, then D&D's hit point system models that poorly. "
Hit point systems inherently model damage poorly. That's why consider hit points to really be luck points.
It's an imperfect, if workable, system for other weapons, but its flaws stand out when dealing with single-shot weapons that are supposed to be deadly.
It doesn't work well with any weapons that are supposed to be deadly. It doesn't model the final fight in Big Trouble in Little China, the single sword strike kills in Yojimbo, or the effects of damage in real life.
With D&D's hit point system, you can't hunt with a gun, you can't have a pistol duel, no one (experienced) ever falls in the initial volley of fire, etc.
You also can't have someone experienced killed with a thrown knife, killed by a baseball bat to the skull, or taken down by a single stop-thrust to the chest. And honestly, if you're expecting those things to happen, shouldn't a ball of fire that can melt the armor off a fighter be absolutely lethal?
The ability to take down a high-hp character with one shot is not, by definition, an increase in lethality
It is, because out should apply to any weapon and spell, and it means that any one shot, even the first could be lethal. Hit points will matter far less than getting that lucky crit (and getting feats that increase the chance of that crit). All very well you say, until your Big Bad that you intended to last through the game gets punked by a lucky shot the first time he appears. And all the characters start carrying guns, and taking feats that let them get off as many shots as possible, because again, getting that crit will be more important than damage, or even accuracy.
And frankly, that's getting away from the D&D style of play, where a 10th level character shouldn't be panicked by a single kobold with a knife Honestly, I think you really want a different game than D&D. You want at the least a game with a damage save mechanic like True 20, and more likely a high lethality game like Warhammer Fantasy or Runequest. Those are good games for the PCs to be afraid of everything.
If, in a Western game, a .22 pistol has a 1-in-10 chance of taking someone out, it's not particularly lethal or effective -- it takes roughly 10 shots to take the target out -- but it's a threat from the very first shot. You wouldn't sit across the poker table from somebody with a tiny pistol and say, "That can't hurt me!"
Point of reality fact; the .22 automatic lost a lot of it's popularity when a homeowner shot a burglar 8 times at point-blank range, and then the burglar proceeded too beat the homeowner to death.
Of course you'd probably still want to model this in a different system- Traveler 2300 has nice location-based damage save system, where any weapon is potentially lethal.