HBOMax Explained and Streaming Service 2022 Year End Review!

[Snarf Zagyg]

Technically, if they leverage everything that they can drop...which no one sane would do.

Their actual capital they can use is hardly anything close to that from what I understand.

Ugh. Look, the magic thing about publicly traded companies is that they have to disclose these things on a regular basis. The other thing is that words like "cash and cash equivalents" have a real meaning- these are assets that either in cash or are considered the equivalent. You don't have to write, "From what I understand," you can actually just quickly look it up.

That said, it doesn't appear you are interested in the facts- look, companies are not individuals buying a house. Companies don't get mortgages. Disney, when they purchased Fox (for example) didn't open up Rocket Mortgage on their iPhone to see how they could afford a $71.3 billion "mortgage." It's somewhat bizarre that this is the argument you are making, given that Apple:
1. Has notoriously, and for a long time, had a mountain of cash, to the extent where they finally had to start dividends. Like ... unheard of amounts of cash. How mountainous? It's public, every quarter.
2. Is a company worth $2.3 trillion right now, which is (checking math) a huge amount more than Disney. Okay, it's more than 13 times bigger. Which ... yeah. This isn't a merger of equals. And Disney's price includes a lot of things Apple wouldn't purchase (see, e.g., the Disney purchase of Fox).
3. Also? I made the reference to the cash because Apple could do it- but that's not how deals are structured ... for a lot of reasons. Tax reasons (Apple and Disney are both good at avoiding those) and also because it is usually beneficial to creatively structure it- that's why they pay the M&A guys the big bucks.

The reason Apple won't buy Disney really boils down to the following (roughly in order of importance, with the last being by far the most important):
A. Apple doesn't buy other companies like this. They either make targeted acquisitions (such as various investments and acquisitions to get their chips in-house) or small ones. The largest, but far, was Beats for $3 billion. It's a cultural thing- they generally don't like to on-board a bunch of new people.

B. The actual deal would be really complicated. There is absolutely no way that Apple would want to purchase major components of Disney- the linear networks (aka, ABC, ESPN, etc.), the Parks and Entertainment (which has a lot of employees, physical assets, and international contractual relationships as well as merch) as well as other specific components. They would be in it for the IP and (to a much lesser extent) DTC operations. This isn't impossible to do, but it would be incredibly hard to untangle and get value.

C. Given the current regulatory climate in DC (see, e.g., Activision and Microsoft) and Brussels (see, e.g., everything) I don't think Apple wants a deal like this on anyone's radar.

So, yeah, there are a lot of exceptionally good reasons why the strategic rumors about Apple are completely wrong and likely floated for a purpose. But "Companies are just people that buy mortgages," is not one of them.

 

[GreyLord]

Ugh. Look, the magic thing about publicly traded companies is that they have to disclose these things on a regular basis. The other thing is that words like "cash and cash equivalents" have a real meaning- these are assets that either in cash or are considered the equivalent. You don't have to write, "From what I understand," you can actually just quickly look it up.

That said, it doesn't appear you are interested in the facts- look, companies are not individuals buying a house. Companies don't get mortgages. Disney, when they purchased Fox (for example) didn't open up Rocket Mortgage on their iPhone to see how they could afford a $71.3 billion "mortgage." It's somewhat bizarre that this is the argument you are making, given that Apple:
1. Has notoriously, and for a long time, had a mountain of cash, to the extent where they finally had to start dividends. Like ... unheard of amounts of cash. How mountainous? It's public, every quarter.
2. Is a company worth $2.3 trillion right now, which is (checking math) a huge amount more than Disney. Okay, it's more than 13 times bigger. Which ... yeah. This isn't a merger of equals. And Disney's price includes a lot of things Apple wouldn't purchase (see, e.g., the Disney purchase of Fox).
3. Also? I made the reference to the cash because Apple could do it- but that's not how deals are structured ... for a lot of reasons. Tax reasons (Apple and Disney are both good at avoiding those) and also because it is usually beneficial to creatively structure it- that's why they pay the M&A guys the big bucks.

The reason Apple won't buy Disney really boils down to the following (roughly in order of importance, with the last being by far the most important):
A. Apple doesn't buy other companies like this. They either make targeted acquisitions (such as various investments and acquisitions to get their chips in-house) or small ones. The largest, but far, was Beats for $3 billion. It's a cultural thing- they generally don't like to on-board a bunch of new people.

B. The actual deal would be really complicated. There is absolutely no way that Apple would want to purchase major components of Disney- the linear networks (aka, ABC, ESPN, etc.), the Parks and Entertainment (which has a lot of employees, physical assets, and international contractual relationships as well as merch) as well as other specific components. They would be in it for the IP and (to a much lesser extent) DTC operations. This isn't impossible to do, but it would be incredibly hard to untangle and get value.

C. Given the current regulatory climate in DC (see, e.g., Activision and Microsoft) and Brussels (see, e.g., everything) I don't think Apple wants a deal like this on anyone's radar.

So, yeah, there are a lot of exceptionally good reasons why the strategic rumors about Apple are completely wrong and likely floated for a purpose. But "Companies are just people that buy mortgages," is not one of them.

YES, I DID look it up.

They DON'T have the capital on hand to actually buy Disney. You are right, it IS easily looked up, but may be hard to understand for people who don't understand the language.

They would have to liquidate some items in order to do so and take money slated for investing elsewhere into buying Disney. Buying Disney outright is a HUGE risk in comparison to other areas they would probably rather put that money into.

And that's what it really boils down to. Cost vs. worth vs. risk. The cost right now wouldn't be worth the other two items to Apple.

However, I try to be nice (still am, actually) when talking on forums about these things...which is why I many times do NOT speak in absolutes or as if I am actually a know it all in these things or know more than others, even if I may know a bit more than some. This is to be polite and a CYA type thing, because hey, you never know if you may have something off. But in this instance, I haven't seen anything that says my information is wrong or off.

When we are talking available capital, we are referring to things like this

Apple cash on hand for 2022 was $48.304B, a 22.89% decline from 2021. Apple cash on hand for 2021 was $62.639B, a 31.12% decline from 2020.

You are right, these things are NOT hard to look up. Please do not ASSUME I did NOT look these things up to begin with.

PS: That does not mean that Apple may not be offered items in the future, or that someone isn't trying to investigate instigating a deal by trying to drop a line on the internet to see how it is accepted or taken, but I don't see Apple buying Disney outright. For starters, they simply don't have the capital available. As I said, just because something is WORTH a certain amount does not mean they actually have that much money available to spend.

People seem VERY confused on that point. I tried to explain it as simply as I could with an example I think most people could understand. I don't know if I got the point across though.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

When we are talking available capital, we are referring to things like this

This is what gets spit out when you google, "How much cash does apple have" You have not impressed me with your deep understanding.

On the internet, no one knows you are a dog. But they can tell if someone knows what you are talking about by their choice of words. Maybe they are intelligently discussing a topic with the terms that are use, and maybe they keep referring to a love for kibble.

We're good.

You are right, these things are NOT hard to look up. Please do not ASSUME I did NOT look these things up to begin with.

Yep. Not hard. you do have to do more than google and cut & paste the first result you see.

PS: That does not mean that Apple may not be offered items in the future, or that someone isn't trying to investigate instigating a deal by trying to drop a line on the internet to see how it is accepted or taken, but I don't see Apple buying Disney outright. For starters, they simply don't have the capital available. As I said, just because something is WORTH a certain amount does not mean they actually have that much money available to spend.

People seem VERY confused on that point. I tried to explain it as simply as I could with an example I think most people could understand. I don't know if I got the point across though.

No. This is, and was, a terrible point. There are all types of mergers and acquisitions. All types of LBOs. Companies can, and do, acquire companies that are larger than they are.

Trying to make an analogy to buying a home for an individual homeowner is ... beyond not helpful. It's the same type of mistake people make when they try and discuss sovereign debt and they're like, "It's just like your credit card."

It's not. Terribly analogies obfuscate- they don't help.

But it's pretty clear to me that you aren't interested in the underlying facts or issues, so I don't think we need to continue the conversation. Take care.

 

[GreyLord]

This is what gets spit out when you google, "How much cash does apple have" You have not impressed me with your deep understanding.

On the internet, no one knows you are a dog. But they can tell if someone knows what you are talking about by their choice of words. Maybe they are intelligently discussing a topic with the terms that are use, and maybe they keep referring to a love for kibble.

We're good.



Yep. Not hard. you do have to do more than google and cut & paste the first result you see.



No. This is, and was, a terrible point. There are all types of mergers and acquisitions. All types of LBOs. Companies can, and do, acquire companies that are larger than they are.

Trying to make an analogy to buying a home for an individual homeowner is ... beyond not helpful. It's the same type of mistake people make when they try and discuss sovereign debt and they're like, "It's just like your credit card."

It's not. Terribly analogies obfuscate- they don't help.

But it's pretty clear to me that you aren't interested in the underlying facts or issues, so I don't think we need to continue the conversation. Take care.

Getting a little personal there...eh?

I admit I may not be the best at explaining things that seem clear to me, but may not be as clear as intended to others....I was not a teacher.

I thought to type something up, but then...I thought...is this really worth it. You have no idea who I am...and it's probably better that way in the long run...

You be you though.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

You know what? Nevermind.

Obvious things ... are obvious.

 

[Snarf Zagyg]

So following up on the latest news-

HBOMax has announced that they are pulling Raised by Wolves, Time Traveler's Wife, FBoy Island (that's the real tragedy!), and Finding Magic Mike.

These shows join The Nevers, Love Life, Westworld, Gordita Chronicles, Minx, Legendary, and Made for Love. Although I'm sure I've missed a few in the two-day orgy of bloodletting Zaslav has been going through.

Trades are reporting that WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery) is looking to up the "savings" from 2-2.5 billion to 2.8-3.5 billion. It take a lot of pennies to get to another billion!

Again, the weird thing about this isn't shows disappearing- this happens all the time for licensing reasons; it's just incredibly odd to see a company that owns the rights to shows deliberately disappear them. Strange times, indeed!

 

[Count_Zero]

The suspicion I've seen is this is all to avoid paying residuals to the people who worked on those shows. So, they're probably not going to receive a physical media release either.

 

[billd91]

The suspicion I've seen is this is all to avoid paying residuals to the people who worked on those shows. So, they're probably not going to receive a physical media release either.

I don't believe suspicion is involved. We're pretty damn sure it's to avoid paying residuals for any continued viewership. They're apparently making the determination that the odds of those shows bringing new subscribers to the platform is outweighed by the chance that current subscribers might actually watch them.

 

[Cadence]

And so now I'm worried that "A Christmas Story Christmas" might get nuked and not be available in perpetuity since it is on HBO Max.

Is that silly because they know holiday shows are evergreen? Does it matter that their subsidiary Turner Entertainment is the rights holder? If they do say it's going away how much of my "respect IP" cred do I lose if I make a copy?

 

[Stalker0]

I won’t lie, I actually really liked time travelers wife, I’m no romance movie lover. But it was a cool premise followed through very well.

 

[Rabulias]

They might be thinking that some other streaming service will want to carry some of those shows and pay a licensing fee. I especially hope for The Nevers to get picked up somewhere so we can see the last six episodes.

 

[GreyLord]

They might be thinking that some other streaming service will want to carry some of those shows and pay a licensing fee. I especially hope for The Nevers to get picked up somewhere so we can see the last six episodes.

According to a report I heard over the radio today, they are thinking about licensing out shows that they have removed from HBO and letting others run them with ads on their streaming sites. The Focus of the discussion seemed to center around Westworld, but there were a few others tossed into the discussion as well.

Also a LITTLE bit on contracting out the creation of shows (or even more seasons of certain shows if I understood right) by other companies to then stream with revenue in some fashion from that going to DiscoveryWB and such

 

[trappedslider]

Well there goes that HBO Max Removing Several Beloved DC Cartoons

 

[Mercurius]

One service you never mention, that is worth checking out, is AMC+. On its own it isn't great, but it is cheap ($1.99 promo, and I think $4.99 after that), and also includes the Sundance Channel (if you like high-brow and/or obscure stuff) and Shudder (if you like shlocky horror). So you end up getting a lot of bang for your buck.

Anyhow, Netflix and Amazon Prime are the only services that I pay for and don't occasionally cancel and then renew, though I feel some guilt at keeping Prime due to Amazon's shoddy business practices. Hulu would be a step down, but with a solid catalogue. HBO Max still has some good stuff coming out, despite its problems - but certainly isn't what it was a few years ago.

I'm completely exhausted with all things MCU and Star Wars, so only had Disney+ for the promo. I watched a season and a half of the Mandalorian, and then realized, "I'm really tired of Star Wars" and cancelled without finishing it, or watching Andor. Similarly with Paramount+: I got it to catch up on Trek, watched two and a half seasons of Discovery before becoming disenchanted, never touched Picard. I enjoyed the few episodes of Strange New Worlds but didn't finish it before cancelling...will probably go back to it.

Starz is cheap, but reminds me a bit of cable tv of the 80s and 90s (and presumably now): lots of movies, but never the ones you want to see (though I subscribed to it for the cheap promo so we could watch Love Actually).

Finally, Apple+. Definitely takes the cake on "quality over quantity"...but this also makes it a streaming service to, well, stream - like fantasy baseball pitchers. So I've got it now, watched and enjoyed Slow Horses, have a few more series I want to check out--and await the second season of the under-appreciated Invasion (I love slow-burn alien invasion stuff) with some anticipation, as well as the upcoming Wool and other series. Oh yeah, Severance was probably the best show I've seen in awhile. In other words, Apple+ plus is sort of like a trimmed down HBO circa 2015. But until they develop a catalogue, I can see going on an alternating three-months-on, three-months-off cycle.

If there could only be two, I'd probably go with Netflix and Apple+, at least for a few months before swapping it for something else.

So for me, the power rankings would be:

1. Netflix: Hard to beat its catalogue, plus has a fair amount of European/Nordic dramas, which I like. There's enough new stuff that comes out, though the downside of the large catalogue is that there's a lot of dreck to sort through.
2. Apple+: Best quality, wish they had a bit more back catalogue and/or select films.
3. Amazon Prime: Second to Netflix in catalogue, with enough unique content to spice things up. Like Netflix, a lot of dreck - but some of that is pleasantly indy stuff...I'm pretty sure you can just post your own film, like Kindle.
4. HBO Max: Would have been #1 a few years ago, and still worth holding onto, but slipping. And now we have cooking and reality shows to wade through. Urgh.
5. Hulu: One of the Big Three in terms of catalogue, a few original gems, but a solid step down from NF/AP.
6. AMC+: Great bang for buck, though somewhat limited. Definitely one that I'll have for a few months and then cancel.
7. Paramount+: First of the Mehs. Trek just isn't enough, especially the new stuff.
8. Starz: Would be good to have if you were home sick for a week, but otherwise...
9. Disney+: Maybe if I wanted to re-and-re-and-re-watch MCU and still loved Star Wars, plus my kids are teens now, so no cigar.

Other services I might "stream in" for a time are Showtime (gotta finish up Ray Donovan) and Peacock (might as well give it a shot at some point).