March Madness!!!

[Megaton]

UCLA is my pick to win it all. Given how they dominated their first game, I think I may be right.

That's who I've got winning too, over UNC. Both of those teams have looked awesome so hopefully I got the final right at least, because my bracket is shot now that Georgetown's out (final four pick).

 

[cignus_pfaccari]

Man, I had Georgetown *and* Duke going to the Final Four.

While I personally don't mind Duke losing (I'm from Kentucky), I'd really have preferred them to lose, oh, later. I did almost have them lose to Belmont, because that's my WoW hunter's name, but that seemed very unrealistic.

And I feel so let down by Georgetown.

But, fortunately for me, I'm still in the lead in my pool, and apparently the other players' brackets are in worse shape.

Knowing absolutely nothing about sports I filled out my bracket in the nerdiest way possible - for each match-up, I assigned a 10-sider to each of the two teams in a game and rolled off, high score advancing. In case of a tie, the team appearing on the bottom arm of the bracket advanced.

Heh. One thing to do next year, roll 1d3, and pick the result in #12 seeds to advance. At least one every year does so, and this year two did.

It seems that it's best to know *something* about sports, but not too much, as that way you get to make the boneheaded "mistakes" that pay off.

Brad

 

[LightPhoenix]

It seems that it's best to know *something* about sports, but not too much, as that way you get to make the boneheaded "mistakes" that pay off.

My theory is somewhat along those lines.

In the interest of full disclosure, I'm not currently winning my bracket.

In general, where knowledge comes into play is in predicting the closer seeds. For example, Texas A&M was a call I made easily - they're a good team that got underranked and had a fairly difficult schedule. Davidson made a lot of noise, and so I picked them not just because they were good, but because they had morale and momentum. I didn't pick Duke going into the Final Four (but did have them in the eight), but I did have Georgetown there.

Where luck comes in is the Cinderella wins. Not many people would put Davidson over Georgetown (I sure didn't), that's a - to continue your parlance - bonehead pick. Yet Georgetown lost. You might be able to predict some (Duke, esp. vs. West Virginia) but overall these statistically don't happen often. When they do, no discredit to the winning teams, but these are often flukes. More often than not, these are due to the higher-ranked teams playing a bad game, more than the lower-ranked ones playing a good game (though that certainly helps).

A prime example of this is earlier in the season, Syracuse beating Georgetown. That should not have happened, and the reason it did wasn't SU playing a good game, is was Georgetown playing a bad one.

 

[cignus_pfaccari]

Where luck comes in is the Cinderella wins. Not many people would put Davidson over Georgetown (I sure didn't), that's a - to continue your parlance - bonehead pick. Yet Georgetown lost. You might be able to predict some (Duke, esp. vs. West Virginia) but overall these statistically don't happen often.

Hell, I had Gonzaga winning, because they've been in the tournament so often.

I suppose if a person had nearly perfect knowledge of every team's record and recent results, it'd be easier. Like, I knew not to pick George Mason, because I read the sports section of the Express, and I wouldn't've gone near Maryland with a 10' pole if they'd made it in...but that's pretty much it. I had a vague idea that WKU was doing good, but I certainly didn't pick Villanova.

Brad

 

[kenobi65]

UCLA is my pick to win it all. Given how they dominated their first game, I think I may be right.

Yes...Bill Walton's playing quite well all of a sudden, and it seems like Coach Wooden has them ready to go all the way.

 

[drothgery]

A prime example of this is earlier in the season, Syracuse beating Georgetown. That should not have happened, and the reason it did wasn't SU playing a good game, is was Georgetown playing a bad one.

Eh. I thought it happened because it was SU vs. Georgetown, where unless one team amazingly good or really sucks, the result won't have much to do with the relative quality of either team.

Of course, my bracket is completely toast at this point.

 

[Crothian]

In the work pool I'm in if I just would have picked all favorites I'd be in first place

I'm shocked though that two people on ESPN's site picked all sweet 16 teams correctly.

 

[drothgery]

In the work pool I'm in if I just would have picked all favorites I'd be in first place

I usually create a second 'brain-dead robot' entry that just picks the higher seed in every case (well, until the final 4, when you don't really know which #1 is the 2 or 3 overall seed; you know the #1 overall because they play the play-in game winner, and #4 overall, because they play the #1 overall in the semis, but it's hard to tell the #3 and #2). I was too lazy this year.

I'm shocked though that two people on ESPN's site picked all sweet 16 teams correctly.

If I'm doing my math right, there were almost 5 million entries. That's probably a big enough pool for at least two people with conncetions to 'Nova, Davidson, and WKY (or otherwise irrationally liked them) who liked MSU in the 4/5 game, dislikes Duke, and otherwise stuck with the favorites.

 

[Ghostwind]

Last night was major bracket self-destruction. Who would have thought that Davidson and Texas would have won? I would have never thought that Memphis would own Michigan State like they did.

 

[drothgery]

Last night was major bracket self-destruction. Who would have thought that Davidson and Texas would have won? I would have never thought that Memphis would own Michigan State like they did.

Davidson seems like it's this year's George Mason, though I suspect they're gone today vs. Kansas. Though if I had any money on my bracket I'd be cheering for Davidson; I didn't pick them, but I'm sure a lot of people picked Kansas and I had Georgetown coming out of that region. I think the way I'd get the most relative points out of what's left is a final four of UNC, Davidson, UCLA, and Texas, with a UCLA over Davidson final.

Texas, though, was something of a trendy final four pick. I always expect Memphis to go down early when they have a high seed, and they never do, but they never make the final, either.