More bad news for HBOmax/DC

billd91

Not your screen monkey (he/him)
Not challenging but curious - what makes you think cable TV hasn't been gathering and using this information for decades as well? They know what channels we watch when, and for those with DVRs they know what we record to watch. I can't see this as something new at all.
That is the Nielsen Ratings. One major difference is the Nielsens are a poll on a selected sample and is governed by the regular limitations of polls and statistical error. The data the streamers have isn’t a sample of a broader community - it‘s the entire community. So they don‘t have to infer whether or not viewers of Westworld also watched The Flight Attendant, they know exactly how many subscriber accounts did so. It’s still not perfect because they may not know why one show may appeal to a subscriber but not another, but they should theoretically be able to make data-driven decisions more effectively.
The other difference is the data collected by the streaming services is entirely private so there isn’t an independent outlet for any of it. They can release good news or suppress news of failure as they wish.
 

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Rabulias

the Incomparably Shrewd and Clever
Whether you sign up for a cable channel or a streaming service, the provider has a lot of data about your viewing habits, but they can only guess at reasons for retention from that info. For example, I signed up for month-by-month Hulu when Orville: New Horizons started. I also watched season 1 of Only Murders in the Building, and watched the new season of that show, which extended my subscription an additional month to finish out. So, was I already planning to watch OMitB when I signed up, or did I "stumble upon" it and it held my attention for an additional month of subscription? Hulu can't tell that just by viewing data alone; they would need additional surveying or feedback gathering to answer that question.

Edited to add: When I cancelled my Hulu sub, they did present me with a survey about why I was leaving, which included the option along the lines of "I watched all I wanted to for now. I will be back later when more stuff is on." They recognize the concept of churn, and I imagine other streaming services do too. As subscription costs rise, and many viewers experience tighter budgets, I think the streaming marketplace will have some casualties in the next few years.
 
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Blue

Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal
That is the Nielsen Ratings.
No, it's not. Had a friend who was a one of the Nielsen samples. He had a pager-like device he worse that caught identifying outside-human-hearing parts of the broadcast so it knew what he was watching regardless if he was at home, in a sports pub, or stopping by the TV section of an electrons store. It captured his entire experience. And also it separated out what he was watching from his wife and from his daughter since they had their own pager-like devices. He had to fill out demographics and such information, and got paid a monthly fee.

What I was talking about is not that.

I am talking about exactly what Umbran was talking about, that through the device used to stream or the device used to watch cable TV, reporting back what is viewed on the device. Umbran was saying that access to this data is new, but the cable devices have been able to report back for decades what channel they are on, is the TV turned on (via the HDMI cable), and if someone has their DVR recording capability, what shows are being recorded.

In other words, we are talking about a very specific set of information, just if it was available only to streamers or also to cable TV.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
Yes, they do have it but a typical "bean counter" may well ignore such data, and only concentrate on raw costs.

"May well..." isn't exactly a solid analytical tool. Let me suggest the other side of "may well..." arguments....

If you completely strip mine a service, then you're going to lose viewers. Which type this guy is will all come out in the wash, as they say.

Have you considered the possibility that the service is unprofitable, such that stripping down is the point?

You may be forgetting opportunity cost - WB/DC makes both movies for the theater, and series for the streaming service. That means that, ultimately, the profitability of the two businesses will be compared.

Barring other dynamics in play, if the return/cost ratio of movies is higher than that of series, they are likely to strip out the series work. Losing viewers who are, in effect, costing you money, is not really a loss at all.

Now, before anyone raises the idea that Disney can apparently make series with profit, I'd say two things:
1) As far as I am concerned, Disneyy/Marvel show quality is just higher than WB/DC content, both in movies and series. So, maybe the Marvel Series just get more viewers and they are profitable.

2) Maybe the Marvel series in and of themselves are not profitable. Maybe they are a loss-leader. I signed on to Disney for Marvel shows. But now that I have it, they also have Muppets, and Simpsons, and Gravity Falls, and... enough content that I keep up a subscription. But HBOMax may not have enough other content that draws people to subscribe consistently to make expensive superhero content alive.

Basically - if "maybe" is an argument, then maybe folks who don't get what they are doing over there don't actually understand the business.
 

But HBOMax may not have enough other content that draws people to subscribe consistently to make expensive superhero content alive.
After i watched the Synder cut, there wasn't enough for me to stay subscribed even if they have the whole The West Wing series. I had planned to resub for batgirl but now I'm just waiting to see what comes along. Any movies they have will rotate to one of the services I keep at some point so, that doesn't keep subbed to HBOMax.
 

Ryujin

Legend
"May well..." isn't exactly a solid analytical tool. Let me suggest the other side of "may well..." arguments....



Have you considered the possibility that the service is unprofitable, such that stripping down is the point?

You may be forgetting opportunity cost - WB/DC makes both movies for the theater, and series for the streaming service. That means that, ultimately, the profitability of the two businesses will be compared.

Barring other dynamics in play, if the return/cost ratio of movies is higher than that of series, they are likely to strip out the series work. Losing viewers who are, in effect, costing you money, is not really a loss at all.

Now, before anyone raises the idea that Disney can apparently make series with profit, I'd say two things:
1) As far as I am concerned, Disneyy/Marvel show quality is just higher than WB/DC content, both in movies and series. So, maybe the Marvel Series just get more viewers and they are profitable.

2) Maybe the Marvel series in and of themselves are not profitable. Maybe they are a loss-leader. I signed on to Disney for Marvel shows. But now that I have it, they also have Muppets, and Simpsons, and Gravity Falls, and... enough content that I keep up a subscription. But HBOMax may not have enough other content that draws people to subscribe consistently to make expensive superhero content alive.

Basically - if "maybe" is an argument, then maybe folks who don't get what they are doing over there don't actually understand the business.
Well if you shift your debt to a company then it's almost certainly going to be unprofitable, by design.
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
Well if you shift your debt to a company then it's almost certainly going to be unprofitable, by design.

But, it wasn't profitable before that. HBOMax content creation was supported by cash influx from AT&T. It wasn't in the black to begin with! I mean, let us face it, if Warner and HBOMax were a cash cow, AT&T wouldn't have spun them off!
 

Snarf Zagyg

Notorious Liquefactionist
But, it wasn't profitable before that. HBOMax content creation was supported by cash influx from AT&T. It wasn't in the black to begin with! I mean, let us face it, if Warner and HBOMax were a cash cow, AT&T wouldn't have spun them off!

Well .... that's complicated. Look at this chart, for example. Since its inception in 1994, Amazon has almost always operated at a net loss or close to no profit. 2018 was the first year that it really started to record profits.

Obviously, I am using a specific example to make a point- every company claims to be Amazon, and every company hopes that Wall Street will reward the "no profits, all growth" strategy with the assumption that it will pay off. Some times that might be a good bet (Netflix) some times that might be questionable (Uber) some times you might be ... w to the t to the f (WeWork).

I think most people assume that in the future (and after shaking out), there will only be a few big players in the streaming field. And this is a major question going forward- for the tech industry, for Hollywood (and similar areas around the world), for Wall Street, and for consumers. Maybe some niche players (like Shudder) will remain ... but the majority of attention and profits will go to the streamers that dominate the new age (so people think). So far, we are seeing three different models for the major streamers-

1. Integrated Legacy Content Model- This is the Disney+ model (also Paramount, Peacock, etc.). Leverage a large back catalog and existing Hollywood production to continue to pivot to the new streaming world.

2. "Dammit Jim, I'm a Tech Company, Not A Streamer" Model- This is the Amazon Prime / Apple+ model. You're basically subsidizing streaming with the rest of your company. It's an added perk, not the focus of your business.

3. The Netflix Model. There's only one of these- get an early lead, get a lot of subscribers, use the money to build a large library to keep the subscribers, and keep banking on your tech and your name recognition and inertia.

HBO Max was in category 2, but now is category 1. But ... there's a big problem. Two, honestly.

Problem 1- HBO is a huge prestige brand in the US, but not outside of it. Because of legacy reasons, it doesn't have the HBO magic to build on outside of the US (and streaming is global ... ask Netflix).

Problem 2- HBO's greatest asset in its main and most lucrative market (the US) is its prestige. While we talk about the DC Universe, most people in the America discuss HBO in terms of its long run of amazing programming that captures the zeitgeist ... from The Sopranos through Euphoria and White Lotus (not to mention Game of Thrones). HBO has always been the definition of prestige and premium TV. That's a brand. By mixing in Discovery (which is decidedly low brow) and increasing the ad load, they are trying to make it ... mass-tige? That's difficult to pull off. There is not a giant mix of people that go from Mare of Eastown to Dr. Pimple Popper.

It's difficult, because I don't think that the current people running it are being very forward-looking. That prestige took decades to build but is easily lost. More importantly, while Discovery has the types of programs that people can put on in the background and they can load with ads ... the "freemium" streaming experience is getting pretty crowded (Pluto, Tubi, Roku, FreeVee, etc.).

(To answer the original question, AT&T spun them off because they realized that they media play that they had made was diverting them from investment in their core profitable business; it's the old push-pull of Wall Street. First, they reward you for buying companies because of the "synergy," then they demand that you divest the companies you have acquired because you'd have a higher stock prices as a pure play. Then again, the investment bankers make money on both transactions .... ;) ).
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
Well .... that's complicated. Look at this chart, for example. Since its inception in 1994, Amazon has almost always operated at a net loss or close to no profit. 2018 was the first year that it really started to record profits.

Obviously, I am using a specific example to make a point- every company claims to be Amazon...

But, the specific example fails right here - The company in question was AT&T, which as been profitable for a very long time. While it has had its ups and downs, no, AT&T wasn't claiming to be Amazon, in the same way that old money doesn't claim to be new money.

From that persepctive, dropping WB/HBO when they are basically a money sink makes much sense - they didn't get and stay where they are by holding on to bad assets.

HBO has always been the definition of prestige and premium TV. That's a brand. By mixing in Discovery (which is decidedly low brow) and increasing the ad load, they are trying to make it ... mass-tige? That's difficult to pull off. There is not a giant mix of people that go from Mare of Eastown to Dr. Pimple Popper.

So, do remember the ownership here - HBO isn't trying to mix in Discovery. That would imply that HBO is the driving force here, and it most certainly is not. The health of HBO qua HBO was probably not the primary goal of that purchase.

There is very little sign that Discovery has the deep pockets required to continue production on lots of prestige genre TV, which is expensive stuff. And they knew that going in to this purchase.
 


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