delericho
Legend
I'd bet that the Basic Rules will be gradually added to.
I'm sure some stuff will be added, but I actually don't expect much. One of the advantages of Basic is, well, that it's basic.

Unless the license specifies that you can't create a class with a name identical to an existing class - which I see as a very improbable restriction - people will just "create" a class identical to the non-Basic class
Assuming it's not under OGL, then I'm certain that restriction will be in there - for exactly the reason you've given - cloned material would appear immediately.
I'm guessing 3 weeks or less after a license is released to the first warlock splatbook. Or maybe sorcerer. One of those two.
Almost certainly Sorcerer first, because it's in the OGL as-is. I also suspect said splatbook would not use the new license, because...
[*]The license will allow use of the Basic Rules and terms. I don't remember how much flavor text is in there, but that will be cut off by the license or removed;
[*]It will not be the OGL;
I suspect you're right about this, but I'm also reasonably sure that anything less than the OGL will be almost completely ignored. Why go for a more limited license when the OGL as-is will do almost everything you need anyway?
[*]There will be no SRD apart from the Basic Rules;
[*]There will be occasional additions to the Basic Rules, OR free supplements, like the Elemental Adventurer's Handbook, will occasionally be added to the license.
[*]It's possible that we'll only have access to the Basic Rules as they stand now, but I think that's unlikely. I'm not sure how they'll balance the desire to add "core" stuff like the sorcerer or warlock to the license without weakening the Basic Rules as ... "basic". Maybe it will be just the Basic stuff. Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I like that option.My hope is that they'll effectively open the whole of Basic, but also allow the use of names from the PHB and MM. That gives the best of both worlds - you can build on the rules foundation given in Basic, and you can also write adventures and splatbooks for anything else (without being able to just reprint, and thus clone the game).
[*]There will be some kind of "stuff you make with our stuff must be open for other people to make stuff with" requirement. There's no downside to WotC requiring this, and it fosters the community and exchange of creativity that's the core assumption of open licenses.
[*]They're going to be tight with the labeling and indicating compatibility stuff. Hell, they might have required wording you'll need to put on the cover;
Everything to here seems entirely reasonable. Where they hit problems...
[*]There will be no expiration date, but WotC will be able to revise or end the license at will;
I see this as the big sticking point. Faced with the possibility that the rug might be pulled out from under them at any time, I can see most companies electing simply to ignore the license. After all, the OGL can't be rescinded, so let's use that!
Incidentally, if they go with a license other than the OGL, I would expect some sort of "community standards" clause, allowing WotC to have 'questionable' material pulled. Basically, it would be a clone of the clause that was added to the d20 license in order to (try to) block the "Book of Erotic Fantasy". I can't imagine that they wouldn't want such a clause in there, especially if their new license allowed the use of some modified D&D logo (as did the GSL).