Some corrections for your math.
Thanks. I'd expected a response from Neon, but looking at my posts now, he seems to have blocked me instead.
I assume you mean the Great Weapon Fighting fighting style. In the case of a 1d10 weapon, it increases the average damage from 5.5 to 6.3. In the case of the 1d4 PAM attack, it increases the average damage from 2.5 to 3.0. This is not hugely significant, but I at least want to note it for reference. I'll go ahead and use these values in my calculations.
NB: A 1d12 weapon increases the average from 6.5 to 7.33, the closest to a +1. A 2d6 weapon increases the average from 7 to 8.33.
Yeah, I knew it was a rough estimate.
If using a polearm, and not trying to figure out how Cleave fits in, this is most likely a weapon with Graze, which boosts the average damage. I'll add that in.
1st level:
If using the +1 for GWF: (9.5 * 65%) [main] + (3 * 35%) [graze] + (5.5 * 5%) [crit] = 7.5
If using the 6.3 average for GWF: (9.3 * 65%) [main] + (3 * 35%) [graze] + (6.3 * 5%) [crit] = 7.41
5th level:
Fighter: (10.3 * 65% * 2) [main] + (4 * 35% * 2) [graze] + (7 * 65%) [PAM] + (4 * 35%) [PAM graze] + (6.3 * 5% * 2) [main crit] + (3 * 5%) [PAM crit] = 22.92
I'd considered adding a weapon mastery, but Neon had mentioned using the Push Mastery to allow for Charging every turn. So, I figured a Pike would work, and I wouldn't have to try and figure out the math. Especially since on the otherside you'd have to figure out what Topple does for the Warlock, since that is the only one of the three 1d10 versatile weapons that could do something equivalent to this mastery.
I usually assume a 50% usage rate on Charger, but I'll keep the 100% used here.
Note: 0.9744 is the chance of landing one hit with four attacks when the base accuracy is 60%, rather than the 65% you've been using. For 65%, this should be 0.985.
Ah, oops. I knew I was doing something wrong there.
I'm not sure what the 8.5 value is in the above equation. I think it's for Charger, but it should be 4.5 rather than 8.5.
That was the PAM bonus attack, the 4.5 is the one on the left of the 8.5
Charger should also probably take effect if you land any attack after the charge, since you only have to "land an attack as part of the Attack Action on your turn", not just the 'first' attack. So I'll use the same chance as for GWM. I'll keep the 5% for the crit chance, though.
Hmm, on a re-read, I think you are right. That would make charger's part of this (4.5x0.985) instead.
GWM also has one additional bonus, which I won't attempt to incorporate here: If you land a crit, or kill a creature with one of your three main attacks, you can use the bonus action for another main strike (1d10) instead of a PAM strike (1d4). This has very little total impact, and is complicated to calculate, so I won't do it here.
That was my thought too.
11th level:
Fighter: (11.3 * 65% * 3) [main] + (5 * 35% * 3) [graze] + (8 * 65%) [PAM] + (5 * 35%) [PAM graze] + (6.3 * 5% * 3) [main crit] + (3 * 5%) [PAM crit] + (4 * 98.5%) [GWM] + (4.5 * 98.5%) [Charger] + (4.5 * 5%) [Charger crit] = 43.93
So, a decent bit more than you calculated.
On the other hand, while a warlock using a 1d10 weapon without Graze would get the 36.0 DPR you calculated, adding Graze increases that to 41.25, and using a rapier with Vex instead increases it to 44.62. Switching from Hex to Shroud increases that further, to 59.94.
And this is without doing some of the other things you could easily do with the Bladelock. For example, the array was 17/14/14/12/10/8. Use either your first level feat or Lessons of the First Ones to get medium armor and Tough, and then make one of those 14's strength. Now you can use a Greatsword or Greataxe instead of a 1d10 weapon.
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Taking a step back from proving it is OP, let's instead turn to fixing it a little bit. Because I have two thoughts.
So, current: Warlock: 3d10+3d6+3d6+15 --> (17.5 x 3 x 0.65) + (12.5 x 3 x 0.05) --> 36
Also for Reference Blastlock was 3d10+15+3d6 --> (14x3x0.65) + (9x3x0.05)--> 28.65
I want to land somewhere between 28 and 36, tending towards 31-ish, ideally.
1) So, thought number one. Replace the third attack with a 1/turn +prof bonus. Simple and has precedence. That would make it
2d10+2d6+2d6+10+4 --> (17.5 x 2 x 0.65) + (12.5 x 2 x 0.05) + (4 x 0.8775) --> 27.51
Bit too low.
2) Second Thought, give them a +Charisma mod bonus per hit
2d10+2d6+2d6+10+10 --> (22.5 x 2 x 0.65) + (12.5 x 2 x 0.05) --> 30.5... that is almost on the money.
3) Third thought, just for variety, give them a +2 to hit and a +2 damage
2d10+2d6+2d6+10+4 --> (19.5 x 2 x 0.75) + (12.5 x 2 x 0.05) --> huh, also 30.5.
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Out of my three quick thoughts, I like #3 the best. It takes from the Improved Pact Weapon Invocation, and bakes it into the weapon. And it makes them more accurate, instead of just bigger damage numbers, which can be very important.
