D&D (2024) The WotC Playtest Surveys Have A Flaw

tetrasodium

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Epic
Historically, looking at videogames which undertook this kind of in-depth self-selecting surveying? Which is the only comparison point I'm aware of.

It's good for one thing - point specific pain points with specific abilities/spells/etc. that the people in charge of the game might not be aware of. Sometimes that's misleading, because it's a pain point only for the elite, or because the elite want to continue to abuse a broken ability, but more often than not, it's general issue, when we're talking about like the specific stuff. That's the upside of the "rate every ability of this class individually" thing - usually the ultra-hardcores will somewhat align with the playerbase in general on specific. You do have to be wary because there are exceptions, but generally.

What's it's very bad for, unfortunately, is the determining the general direction of a game, of classes, of larger issues in general, because the same exact people who are genuinely pretty good at picking out pain points, and fantastic axe-grinders with weird ideas that they often share with each other, but not with the bulk of the people playing the game. They're also ultra-conservative, typically, in a way that most players are not. You see this with MMOs that have undertaken these sort of in-depth self-selecting surveys - the information they get from them will often conflict with more straightforward surveys which reach a larger number of players, or surveying which isn't self-selecting but put out by the company.

Like, if you were running an MMO, and the main thing you wanted, was to retain the most serious raiders and PvPers, and you didn't care about the 95% who were the bulk of your paying customers, surveying like this and following their feedback. But that's focusing on 5% of the market at the cost of the rest. History suggests when you're a market leader, that will actually work for a while, whether you're EQ or WoW or whatever, but then it stops working.

A lot of companies did some fairly extensive surveying and research into what MMORPG players said they wanted (a lot of them with self-selecting surveys) back in the '00s, and this lead to quite a lot of failed MMORPGs. Not even ones that went F2P and lived - ones that outright died. I don't think the same will happen with a market leader like D&D but I also don't think anything good will happen from listening to ultra-nerds (which 100% includes me) about the direction of your game, and not listening to Jonny or Jenny who plays D&D but less seriously. Anyway, this kind of "What do people SAY they want?" stuff lead RPGs like Vanguard, WildStar, and a bunch of near-FFA PvP MMORPGs, all of which ended in tears. Because what the serious, in-depth, detailed-oriented, hmmmm how to put this... often neurodiverse (I say that as a seriously neurodiverse person) people say they want is NOT, absolutely NOT the same as "what people who play these games actually like". There's almost no finer evidence of that than FFXIV's success. It's basically done everything hardcore people said they didn't want in an MMORPG. WoW has also painfully and with difficulty moved away from listening to a tiny group of ultra-hardcore people, and they only really made the break when all the old guard had to leave or got fired in the sex abuse scandal and related fallout, and now we have Dragonflight, which is easily the best WoW expansion in over a decade - and it's primarily younger people, blue-haired people and so on, designing it - and designing it for people who actually play WoW!


This kind of attitude is part of the problem and how companies get into trouble with this kind of surveying.

Because conflating "enough knowledge" and "cares enough" is extremely dangerous, and assuming that he hardcore people have that knowledge, rather than just specific axes they grind, is dangerous too.

As I said, these kind of people can be useful for specific pain points and issues, but for general directions of classes? For how your game should look? For what people want in a broader sense? No. Absolutely not. These people are not reliably representative of the bulk of people playing. The most recent example is the apparent insistence that the entire arcane/divine/primal spell list concept be abandoned solely for the sake of Wizards. That is the sort of thing hardcore axe-grinders obsess about, and can't see the bigger picture about. One of the big things with MMORPG design and the like was designers realizing that, at some point, they have to be able ignore feedback and say "No players, actually you are wrong, and we are right".

A specific example of that would be WoW's obsession with high-end raiding. The feedback they were getting was that it was everything, and the devs actually were aligned with that feedback because they were from a similar background to the people giving it. Eventually, however, the CEO of the company had to step in, because WoW's own metrics (metrics sadly unavailable to TT RPGs) showed with the last high-end raid they'd released, what % of the playerbase had even seen the inside of it?

0.5%

And yet their design and class-balancing efforts for months had been focused on that raid and its environs. And the self-selecting feedback they had said they were right to be doing that.

Anyway, I could go on and on, but the point is, it's worth having that feedback for pain points and specific issues, but as a game designer, you need to able to say "Yeah that feedback says X, but what we actually need to do is Y". Frankly if WoW hadn't been able to do that, The Burning Crusade would have represented it's peak population, and it'd been F2P for years by now.
There is one group you skipped. It's also one who mainly exists in the group you are saying to listen to.Those mislead by a big lie about a "nerf". It's a group who will reflexively charge in to vote in an effort to protect something they care about from a nerf they didn't even take the time to look at as a whole. Wild shape templates and the packet 5 warlock almost certainly fell victim to that group
 

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Micah Sweet

Level Up & OSR Enthusiast
Historically, looking at videogames which undertook this kind of in-depth self-selecting surveying? Which is the only comparison point I'm aware of.

It's good for one thing - point specific pain points with specific abilities/spells/etc. that the people in charge of the game might not be aware of. Sometimes that's misleading, because it's a pain point only for the elite, or because the elite want to continue to abuse a broken ability, but more often than not, it's general issue, when we're talking about like the specific stuff. That's the upside of the "rate every ability of this class individually" thing - usually the ultra-hardcores will somewhat align with the playerbase in general on specific. You do have to be wary because there are exceptions, but generally.

What's it's very bad for, unfortunately, is the determining the general direction of a game, of classes, of larger issues in general, because the same exact people who are genuinely pretty good at picking out pain points, and fantastic axe-grinders with weird ideas that they often share with each other, but not with the bulk of the people playing the game. They're also ultra-conservative, typically, in a way that most players are not. You see this with MMOs that have undertaken these sort of in-depth self-selecting surveys - the information they get from them will often conflict with more straightforward surveys which reach a larger number of players, or surveying which isn't self-selecting but put out by the company.

Like, if you were running an MMO, and the main thing you wanted, was to retain the most serious raiders and PvPers, and you didn't care about the 95% who were the bulk of your paying customers, surveying like this and following their feedback. But that's focusing on 5% of the market at the cost of the rest. History suggests when you're a market leader, that will actually work for a while, whether you're EQ or WoW or whatever, but then it stops working.

A lot of companies did some fairly extensive surveying and research into what MMORPG players said they wanted (a lot of them with self-selecting surveys) back in the '00s, and this lead to quite a lot of failed MMORPGs. Not even ones that went F2P and lived - ones that outright died. I don't think the same will happen with a market leader like D&D but I also don't think anything good will happen from listening to ultra-nerds (which 100% includes me) about the direction of your game, and not listening to Jonny or Jenny who plays D&D but less seriously. Anyway, this kind of "What do people SAY they want?" stuff lead RPGs like Vanguard, WildStar, and a bunch of near-FFA PvP MMORPGs, all of which ended in tears. Because what the serious, in-depth, detailed-oriented, hmmmm how to put this... often neurodiverse (I say that as a seriously neurodiverse person) people say they want is NOT, absolutely NOT the same as "what people who play these games actually like". There's almost no finer evidence of that than FFXIV's success. It's basically done everything hardcore people said they didn't want in an MMORPG. WoW has also painfully and with difficulty moved away from listening to a tiny group of ultra-hardcore people, and they only really made the break when all the old guard had to leave or got fired in the sex abuse scandal and related fallout, and now we have Dragonflight, which is easily the best WoW expansion in over a decade - and it's primarily younger people, blue-haired people and so on, designing it - and designing it for people who actually play WoW!


This kind of attitude is part of the problem and how companies get into trouble with this kind of surveying.

Because conflating "enough knowledge" and "cares enough" is extremely dangerous, and assuming that he hardcore people have that knowledge, rather than just specific axes they grind, is dangerous too.

As I said, these kind of people can be useful for specific pain points and issues, but for general directions of classes? For how your game should look? For what people want in a broader sense? No. Absolutely not. These people are not reliably representative of the bulk of people playing. The most recent example is the apparent insistence that the entire arcane/divine/primal spell list concept be abandoned solely for the sake of Wizards. That is the sort of thing hardcore axe-grinders obsess about, and can't see the bigger picture about. One of the big things with MMORPG design and the like was designers realizing that, at some point, they have to be able ignore feedback and say "No players, actually you are wrong, and we are right".

A specific example of that would be WoW's obsession with high-end raiding. The feedback they were getting was that it was everything, and the devs actually were aligned with that feedback because they were from a similar background to the people giving it. Eventually, however, the CEO of the company had to step in, because WoW's own metrics (metrics sadly unavailable to TT RPGs) showed with the last high-end raid they'd released, what % of the playerbase had even seen the inside of it?

0.5%

And yet their design and class-balancing efforts for months had been focused on that raid and its environs. And the self-selecting feedback they had said they were right to be doing that.

Anyway, I could go on and on, but the point is, it's worth having that feedback for pain points and specific issues, but as a game designer, you need to able to say "Yeah that feedback says X, but what we actually need to do is Y". Frankly if WoW hadn't been able to do that, The Burning Crusade would have represented it's peak population, and it'd been F2P for years by now.
But how do you get the general public to participate in these surveys? The anecdotal evidence above suggests that many players don't even know about the survey, and many of those that do don't care to fill it out.
 

There is one group you skipped. It's also one who mainly exists in the group you are saying to listen to.Those mislead by a big lie about a "nerf". It's a group who will reflexively charge in to vote in an effort to protect something they care about from a nerf they didn't even take the time to look at as a whole. Wild shape templates and the packet 5 warlock almost certainly fell victim to that group
Yes. They don't always exist, the right circumstances have to occur but they can.

The wildest example isn't actually of a survey, but of what amounts to MMORPG terrorism.

Back in EverQuest (EQ) days, EQ's main designers decided to improve the "hybrid" classes - classes which mixed fighting and magic - classes like Paladin, Shadowknight, Bard, and Ranger. This was a very popular decision with the fans in general, and you could see that in places where game was discussed widely. However it was extremely unpopular with a certain group - the elite of the elite hardcore raiders - the people right at the top of the game. Those people didn't have characters of those classes, specifically because the hybrids weren't very good (instead they tended to Warrior, Cleric, Wizard, etc). Those people didn't want to "have to" potentially level up and gear up new characters of those classes - admittedly that would have taken them months, but they didn't have to do it, the hybrids still wouldn't be "better", they were just on-par (arguably still slightly inferior). So what did they do?

  • Launched smear campaigns and vituperative verbal attacks on individual devs, making out they were bad people, dumb, unqualified, or biased, or just wanted to benefit individually (most of the devs played the game) from these buffs

  • Threatened all their guild members and all associated guilds that they had to support them on this, or else they'd never raid again (given how raiding worked in EQ this was a viable threat.

  • Worked out how to hard-crash the game servers reliably (get enough people into certain zones), and then proceeded to do so, over and over and over and over again, whilst threatening the game devs that unless hybrids were not buffed, this wouldn't stop. This was their primary weapon and most effective one.

What was amazing is, they didn't get banned! The devs were so worshipful and afraid of their "best" players, that despite them really committing acts of terror against their game, and individually attack them, they just didn't even try for fear of mass-quitting or something (which would never have happened, given the other major MMOs were PvP-centric DAoC and ultra-Japanese FFXI). So the devs just gave in and let the terrorists win.

And the names of the top virtual terrorists here? Why, Jeffrey Kaplan and Alex Afrasiabi!

And what happened these gentlemen? Why, they were hired by Blizzard! (because Blizzard's then-CEO, Rob Pardo was in one of their guilds and big mates in-game with the other), and rapidly promoted through the ranks, but their careers followed very paths as Kaplan matured and became a decent guy and honestly a good designer and Afrasiabi... didn't (the less said the better).


I agree re: wild shape templates, despite me being against what they'd done specifically, they should have revised the idea but in classic WotC fashion, the moment there was pushback, they just abandoned the idea wholesale! I disagree re: the Warlock - arguably the approach was perhaps even a buff, but it was a fundamentally different approach, and abandoned what made the Warlock unique (and arguably the best-designed class in 5E) in favour of a possibly effective but quite messy design.
 

But how do you get the general public to participate in these surveys? The anecdotal evidence above suggests that many players don't even know about the survey, and many of those that do don't care to fill it out.

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I mean, to be honest it's not that neat for WotC, but it's certainly neat for the small number of enthusiastic individuals who do ruthlessly fill these surveys out.

If you actually want information about the vast bulk of people who play your game (and this is true of all games), and how they play your game, you have to do actual surveying, i.e. contacting them, rather than letting them come to you.

You can crudely attempt to simulate this by doing a limited amount of surveying to determine the "outlines" of your audience - i.e. age, gender, income, etc. - and we know WotC definitely has done that - then weighting the answers on your self-selecting survey accordingly, but despite WotC doing the former, everything they've said about surveys suggests they're not doing the latter (for whatever reason). It seems like there's some kind of disconnect - like the outline surveying was done by corporate, and the self-selecting surveying is done by the actual D&D design team, and never the twain shall meet.
 

And that fraction of a fraction of a fraction of people that made it all the way to Step (e) is supposed to be everyone's voice in the room.
How do we know this .01% statistic is true? Did someone at Wizards say or publish this?

Reverse that .01%. How many feedback forms have they received? How many people play D&D? If we do not have those two numbers, we can't possibly figure out that percentage.
 

I'd also point out that WotC estimates D&D's playerbase at 30m actually playing this edition. Yet the peak survey fill-in was I believe, 40k people according to WotC (correct me if I'm wrong).

Unless my math is failing me, 40k is 0.13 percent of the playerbase (sorry for my earlier decimal place error).

So WotC are actually talking about 70% of 0.13%, so what, 0.091% of the playerbase? That's the approval threshold here.
Thank you for answering the question. I should have read further. But how do we have these numbers?
 

Thank you for answering the question. I should have read further. But how do we have these numbers?
30m it's WotC's own estimate of how many people are playing D&D nowadays (I think late 2021?).

40K is the largest number WotC themselves have reported for playtest responses for 1D&D/2024.

IIRC, they noted the numbers were lower for a later 1D&D/2024 UA (20K, I think), but the 40K is definite.

70% is WotC's own figure, as a percentage of people who answer a UA, who must approve of any change.

So these are being multiplied together. 40k is 0.13% of 30m. 70% of 0.13 is 0.091%. That is the percentage of players WotC is relying on to approve stuff.

If we do not have those two numbers, we can't possibly figure out that percentage.
The numbers are based directly on WotC's own statements.

That is the best information we have available.

EDIT - Just to add to this, we could just assume WotC is delusional in their estimates and only 10m people are actually playing D&D, but it barely makes a difference. 40k just becomes 0.4%, and the "approval" % is then 0.28%, which whilst obviously larger than 0.091%, is still laughable in the same way.
 
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30m it's WotC's own estimate of how many people are playing D&D nowadays (I think late 2021?).

40K is the largest number WotC themselves have reported for playtest responses for 1D&D/2024.

IIRC, they noted the numbers were lower for a later 1D&D/2024 UA (20K, I think), but the 40K is definite.

70% is WotC's own figure, as a percentage of people who answer a UA, who must approve of any change.

So these are being multiplied together. 40k is 0.13% of 30m. 70% of 0.13 is 0.091%. That is the percentage of players WotC is relying on to approve stuff.


The numbers are based directly on WotC's own statements.

That is the best information we have available.
Ah. Thank you for the response and explanation. And yes, that is a really small number, even for polling, which is notoriously inaccurate when a small number of participants are used.
Thanks again.
 

Cruentus

Adventurer
Ah. Thank you for the response and explanation. And yes, that is a really small number, even for polling, which is notoriously inaccurate when a small number of participants are used.
Thanks again.
Not really. Scientifically, you can get "representative samples" for surveys or data collection and analysis with far fewer participants. Now, I'm not a scientist, or a pollster, but I'm sure there are those on these boards who could explain it. Basically, the numbers that WOTC pulls for their surveys - other companies would kill to get that kind of response rate. It shouldn't be dismissed.

+edit: I might disagree with the results, but that doesn't make them non-representative. It just means I disagree with the direction the game is taking. And that has happened to me, and I've left 5e as a result.
 


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