Corinth said:
Assuming that ROTK doesn't suck raw donkey balls, the Academy will award Oscars next year to Jackson and company. The idea being that the LOTR trilogy is believed to be one movie in three parts, not three movies, and so awarding Oscars for ROTK will actually be awarding the entire body of work. The nominations for FOTR and TTT are there as placemarkers for the Oscars that are certain to come next year with ROTK.
Maybe it's the cynic in me, but I don't think Return of the King will win any of the big awards, either. It will be nominated for Best Picture, and maybe a supporting actor. But I don't think it will win. Lord of the Rings has achieved a great deal, on many levels, but, as you were saying, fantasy and sci-fi movies are rarely even considered for nomination.
Granted, Braveheart and Gladiator both won for best picture, and Lord of the Rings is hardly a lesser film to either of these (especially Gladiator). But Oscar voters tend to like tear-jerking, life changing dramas that are done here in the U.S., and by big names or up-and-coming talents. And there's SO much politics involved.
Take Gladiator, for example. Just about NO film critic thought it was worthy of Best Picture, and many (like Roger Ebert) didn't even rank it on their Top Ten of the year. The #1 pick by film critics was Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Gladiator won due to politics, nothing more. And those politics, I'm guessing, will work against Lord of the Rings.
I would love to see Lord of the Rings get something significant (and technical awards are not). But the cynic in me seriously doubts it will happen.
By the way, Steve Martin is, IMHO, by far the best Oscars host of the past, I don't know, 10 years or so (I wouldn't remember any before then).