D&D (2024) What happens if One DnD fails?

[Justice and Rule]

1st Edition - Huge success.
2nd Edition - drop in success.
3rd Edition - Huge success.
4th Edition - Drop in success.
5th Edition - Huge success.
6th Edition (One D&D) - ?

I look forward to 7th Edition. lol

The reverse Star Trek curse!!

 

[Azzy]

So the worst (for WotC and Hasbro) happens. One DnD launches and instantly makes 4e look like a record success. Meanwhile all the players just continue quietly playing 5e instead.

This is a question which has been on my mind since before the OGL disaster, as pretty much every single person I've talked to plans to just keep on playing 5e rather than switching to One DnD.

Do WotC/Hasbro double down on it and keep pushing it hoping for it to eventually become popular? Do they do a 4e and try to push out a replacement edition as fast as possible? Do they try to force people to switch by removing all the 5e tools from DnD Beyond?

Or do the higher ups at Hasbro just decide the brand isn't possible anymore, and throw the entire thing into the bin of dead IPs?

5.1e won't "fail"—D&D as a brand is too big to fail at this point, and that assures that 5.1e will still make bank (maybe not enough for the beancounters, who must have "more, more, more"—which was the case for 4e, too). Remember, WotC did not "push out a replacement edition as fast as possible" for 4e—4e lasted a while, so don't expect a rush on a 5.1 replacement if 5.1 isn't the success that WotC wants it to be—just expect a tweak in 4-5 years and maybe something bigger 4-5 years after that.

 

[mamba]

I agree with you but if the VTT is half as good as they think it is they should support everyone, that way they can sell the little quality of life addons (art, maps and character/npc minis ) to everyone and monetise all fans.

If WotC were so confident in their VTT, they would not need to shut down all competition in the VTT policy

 

[Alzrius]

5.1e won't "fail"—D&D as a brand is too big to fail at this point

I'm personally of the opinion that nothing is ever too big to fail, and that "evergreen" brands which can be regularly exploited are a very new concept which have yet to prove their longevity. While I don't think we'll see D&D "fail" in terms of any sort of immediate crash and burn, there's a very real chance that it simply declines in terms of public interest/engagement, fading back into being a novelty property that gets treated as a "whatever happened to?" topic outside of the more hardcore TTRPG holdouts.

Now, whether or not that happens is certainly up in the air. D&D is still riding high right now, but I think that there are signs that the wheels could potentially come off the wagon. It'd likely take a few years to collapse to the point of cultural disinterest, but it's entirely possible.

Remember, WotC did not "push out a replacement edition as fast as possible" for 4e—4e lasted a while

I don't know what "as fast as possible" looks like, but after two years WotC was already trying to right the ship in the form of Essentials, and after another two years the entire edition was dead on arrival. That'd likely be how 1D&D goes, if it collapses (perhaps taking somewhat longer, since it has a higher height to fall from).

 

[Guythegard]

I think the most WotC can do is just not allow anyone to sell there 5e products any mor meaning if you still have the equipment to play 5e you can still play it.

 

[MonsterEnvy]

If WotC were so confident in their VTT, they would not need to shut down all competition in the VTT policy

They are not shutting down all competition. They can’t do that even.

 

[Xyxox]

Nah, it's already being shown to be compatible. You are just currently assuming the worst about everything.

You really haven't been around for the complete history of TTRPGs, have you? They say this EVERY time a new version is announced.

 

[Clint_L]

OneD&D can't "fail" in the sense that Hasbro has way too much invested to just give up on D&D. It can "fail" in the sense that Star Wars: Galaxy Edge failed, i.e. by being a major disappointment that requires substantial additional investment and rethinking of plans.

It could also lead to Hasbro being bought out, or having to sell D&D. If Hasbro has another year like last, you have to think folks like Disney will be looking hard at acquiring all that tasty, tasty IP.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

They are not shutting down all competition. They can’t do that even.

LOL dude why be a literalist? You know that's unhelpful and not how good-faith communication works.

WotC are attempting to pre-emptively shut down any real competition on the VTT front. There's no question about that. They literally say what they want, and it's no-frills ultra-simple VTTs whilst they're making a mega-deluxe all-frills VTT.

It's like a car manufacturer demanding anyone else making cars makes sure they have no radios, no cupholders, no bucket seats, no A/C, and so on, whilst planning the plush and luxurious car in history.

(And honestly if the right patents had been filed at the right time, or we had a modern-style IP regime in place in the late 1800s/early 1900s, we might well have seen a scenario where only one company was allowed to make actual cars lol.)

 

[Ruin Explorer]

Really, they should have just revived 4e and given it a new coat of paint for their digital initiative while leaving 5e and OGL 1.0a alone.

God I would have bought that lol. 4E back AND OGL 1.0a left alone? Sounds pretty ideal.