Needing to change a crunchy rogue above level five or six who puts in effort to be crunchy for a level 5 rogue who does not in order to make the point is pretty much pointing a spotlight at the exception that proves the norm of it not being a big deal. This started about how specifically there's no fear of hitting crunchy types the GM is pressured to attack not squishy types that the GM would get labeled a killer GM if they went after the squishy pc too seriously. Specifically at higher levels than five or six.
I don't understand all this. This is about your claim that a Wizard can fireball his own party members with no problem, and I used one of your examples (a 35hp 5th level Rogue) to show that was not true.
studded leather(12ac) ++4 or 5 from dex possible +2 from a shield possible +1 from each of things like defensive fighting style +1 armor +1 shield +1 ring of protection +1 cloak of protection ranging from a crunchy PC with an ac of 18-24. The veteran that you mention has a +5 to hit & needs to roll a 13 or better to hit off the shelf non magic gear. It does not have the tohit needed to reliably hit a PC who has not even improved upon nonmagical mundane gear let alone one who put in some effort.
Rouges do not have shield proficiency or fighting styles and if your using point buy or standard array your dexterity will be between 16-19 (+3 to +4).
The veteran would indeed have advantage on attacks after the rogue is down, but it does an average of 7 6 & 5 on its attacks for a total of 18 average if it rolls 13 or better on each against the hypothetical 30hp rogue who still has 12 HP & should be capable of taking two more average attacks from a second veteran if all five of those attacks were a 13 or better.
Why would he have 12 hps? 35 hit point Rouge -28 from being fireballed by the Wizard has 7 hps left before they start swinging at him.
35-28=7 not 12
After the veterans made five d20 rolls of 13 or better to drop the fireballed rogue who failed the dex save they still need to make two successful attacks with advantage before another player can provide the rogue with any healing. If the group consists of 3-4 level 7 players the bare minimum number of veterans(3) required to kill a fireballed rogue who failed the dex save is only a medium or hard encounter not deadly or lethal.
It is not a medium encounter.
To start even if he has 12 hit points two Veterans can kill him. You said "the bare minimum". That would be 1 as one hit and 2 more hits with him down can kill him if one of the hits while downed was a crit. It will also kill him without crits if he fails just one death save. So as a point of fact the "bare minimum" is one Veteran.
I agree it is not a deadly encounter, it is easy. Assuming a party of 4 5th level players (remember the Rogue is 5th level, not 7th, he just has an abnormally high AC and high hit points) a lethal encounter would be
7 Veterans, not 2
.
If you have 7 veterans attacking a "normal" 5th level Rogue with AC16 and 7 hps left after being fireballed he has a 99% chance of dying.
If you have 7 veterans attacking your over the top 5th level 20 Dex homebrew Rogue with protection fighting style, shield proficiency, a +1 shield and +1 Ring of protection who somehow also got an extra 5 hit points (AC22, 12 hps) and those 7 Veterans attack him they STILL have a 67% chance of killing him. Note if we were using RAW, in addition to the over the top magic items, it would take 4 ASIs to build this Rogue using standard array or point buy and he only has 1 ASI at 5th level.
Those numbers assume he still has uncanny dodge available and they do not include the possibility of leaving him nearly dead and having him fail a death save himself.
Add to that, the veteran you mention has a measly 17 ac 58 hp and +1 dex with no save proficiencies at all . A 28 point fireball will being it to 30hp. It's not hard for the group to deal 30hp when the rogue alone can average 15-20 or easy. In order for players to hit a 17ac with 18 in their prime attribute, a starting +0 weapon & level 5-8's +3 proficiency bonus they need to roll a ten or better on a d20 where the average is ten point five.
Yeah the fireball took away less than half their hit points .... if they failed the save. Sure you can kill them easy, they are CR4. But if your wizard fireaballed you they can kill you easy too, really easy.
You have not made a case for a serious threat to the crunchy PCs because the veteran needs a 13 or better to hit +0 nonmagical gear on each of those possible three attacks.
First off the 13 is off, that is too high an AC. But even if we use this number each of them has a 78% chance of hitting you one time or more (specifically 22% chance of 0 hits, 43% chance of 1 hit, 28% chance of 2 hits, 6% chance of 3 hits) that is for EACH one that attacks the Rogue and it is using the 13 you say they need to hit you.
If the group is too small to both burn them down and toss a heal of some form on that rogue so the rogue can disengage & switch to ranged attacks then it's pretty much an encounter that swaps the LMOP opening goblins with veterans & playing it out the rocks fall scenario with a twist at level 5.
The Rogue can't disengage and switch to range, he would have to disengage and then dash, otherwise they could simply close with him and attach him again. Rogue disengages, moves 30 feet, drops his melee weapon, pulls out his bow and shoots it, then the Veterans use theor move to start attacking him again.
In the Goblin ambush in LMOP there are Goblins on both sides of the road and if I remember correctly you are escorting a wagon and civilians. Depending on the map used it might not be possible to get all the Goblins in one fireball (usually wouldn't be possible I would say), but aside from that there are civilians in/with the Wagon. When you drop down a fireball at ground zero to get all the enemies you are going to kill all the people you are trying to protect, probably the horses pulling the wagon and set the wagon on fire. The LMOP ambush illustrates my point very, very well - It is extremely difficult to use fireball to get a large number of enemies!
Fireball doesn't bounce off walls or anything so in a situation where it might matter like your exception the caster can just position it off to the side or do things like hold their cast till the rogue can scoot around a bit or cunning action disengage like just about any rogue not trying to be the tank is going to do most rounds.
The entire discussion is based on the premise the enemies are mixed in with your players. That is what this is about. Sure they can position it to miss the players and that is what most casters usually do ... but they don't get the guy who won initiative and is between your Rogue and Fighter, they don't get the guy in the corner because making it cover the corner will also hit the Cleric ..... In the case of the LMOP example, if you do this you fireball one side of the road and get two of the four Goblins/Veterans.
It is rare, very rare that you can hit every enemy in an encouter with a fireball unless the caster wins initiative outright.