D&D (2024) What is the lowest damage Fireball could deal where you would still prep/use it?

What is the lowest damage Fireball could deal where you would still prep/use it?

  • 1d6 (avg 3.5)

    Votes: 3 3.7%
  • 2d6 (avg 7)

    Votes: 3 3.7%
  • 3d6 (avg 10.5)

    Votes: 2 2.5%
  • 4d6 (avg 14)

    Votes: 10 12.3%
  • 5d6 (avg 17.5)

    Votes: 15 18.5%
  • 6d6 (avg 21)

    Votes: 32 39.5%
  • 7d6 (avg 24.5)

    Votes: 3 3.7%
  • 8d6 (avg 28)

    Votes: 11 13.6%
  • More than 8d6 (i.e., I don't use it now)

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • I wouldn't use Fireball no matter how much damage it did

    Votes: 1 1.2%

ECMO3

Hero
Maybe at level 5 or six, but 8d6 is only an average of 28 damage save for half. Take these 14 con example builds
  • L5 Fighter 40hp
  • L10 Fighter 80hp
  • L5 barbarian 45hp
  • L10 Barbarian 90hp
  • L5 Paladin 40hp
  • L10 paladin 80hp
  • L5 Ranger 40hp
  • L10 Ranger 80hp
  • L5 rogue 35hp
  • L10 Rogue 70hp
28 might seem like a lot at level 5, but all of those classes keep getting more HP & the ones with lower HP are likely to have dex save proficient and a dex based build to drop that to avg14 or 14/0 with evasion.
I will agree on the L10 Rogue because of Evasion, at most he takes half damage and you generally expect him to make that save and be unscathed, but most of those other players on that list are going to be annoyed if they get fireballed. Fireballing a 5th level Rogue is a different story though as that has about a 25% chance of downing him unless he has absorb elements through Arcane Trickster or a Feat. I have also never seen a single-classed Rogue played with a 14 constitution unless he rolled that.

Taking 28 damage when you have 80 is a lot and that is assuming you don't upcast it ever. Moreover enemies have more hit points than PCs. So sure if you are fighting a "zillion Kobolds" Fireball is going to wipe them all out and your PCs that got fragged will still be standing, but 10th level characters won't be fighting "a zillion Kobolds", they will typically be fighting enemies with as many or more hit points than they have, so Fireball will knock the PCs down and will knock the enemies down, but it will generally put the PCs closer to 0.

I will also point out that people on several of these threatd are talking about how important a high constitution is, so if you fireball that Level 10 14 Con fighter, it is basically the same as having him up there tanking with an 8 constitution.
 
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Horwath

Legend
No, it wouldn't, not unless most 3rd-level damage spells are "garbage tier". Compared to other 3rd-level damage spells it would still be "okay". It wouldn't be outstanding, but it'd be okay, because of the ridiculous radius. What it would do would be change a spell from a no-brainer to a spell you only memorized when you expected to fight a lot of weak opponents.
yes, every 3rd level damaging spell except fireball and lightning bolt is waste of space on your character sheet.
So Full Casters should just be a lot more powerful than non-casters?
in limited resource style? Yes!
That's what you're saying, essentially.

I do agree that if they insist on keeping Fireball where it is, they should pull up other 3rd level damage spells a bit, but really, they knock Fireball down to 6d6, where it would still be close to a no-brainer, but not a total no-brainer.
If every wizard took 8d6 fireballs, DMs job would be a lot easier.
nothing more simple than more damage done. Control spells are a nightmare to factor in for encounter building.

8d6 is completely fine. if anything scaling should be higher later, +2d6 or even +3d6 per level.
Right now, 4th level fireball is bad.
 
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tetrasodium

Legend
Supporter
Epic
I will agree on the L10 Rogue because of Evasion, at most he takes half damage and you generally expect him to make that save and be unscathed, but most of those other players on that list are going to be annoyed if they get fireballed. Fireballing a 5th level Rogue is a different story though as that has about a 25% chance of downing him unless he has absorb elements through Arcane Trickster or a Feat. I have also never seen a single-classed Rogue played with a 14 constitution unless he rolled that.

Taking 28 damage when you have 80 is a lot and that is assuming you don't upcast it ever. Moreover enemies have more hit points than PCs. So sure if you are fighting a "zillion Kobolds" Fireball is going to wipe them all out and your PCs that got fragged will still be standing, but 10th level characters won't be fighting "a zillion Kobolds", they will typically be fighting enemies with as many or more hit points than they have, so Fireball will knock the PCs down and will knock the enemies down, but it will generally put the PCs closer to 0.

I will also point out that people on several of these threatd are talking about how important a high constitution is, so if you fireball that Level 10 14 Con fighter, it is basically the same as having him up there tanking with an 8 constitution.
No it's not as dire as you are trying to suggest here. Healing word... Healing breeze(light?) 1hp LoH death save death save death save revivify LetsTakeAShortOrLongRest.
The rules ensure that 28 damage won't matter because the monsters are noteaningfully equipped to make it matter unless things are somehow stacked in such a way that 28 damage only accelerated the inevitable. .monsters just don't have enough tohit ordsmage for28 damage to be the straw they needed unless they were already in a situation where they didn't need it
 
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ECMO3

Hero
No it's not as dire as you are trying to suggest here. Healing word... Healing breeze(light?) 1hp LoH death save death save death save revivify LetsTakeAShortOrLongRest.
The rules ensure that 28 damage won't matter because the monsters are noteaningfully equipped to make it matter unless things are somehow stacked in such a way that 28 damage only accelerated the inevitable. .monsters just don't have enough tohit ordsmage for28 damage to be the straw they needed unless they were already in a situation where they didn't need it
A 35 hit point Rogue that loses 28 hit points has 7 left and the vast majority of monsters can do that on one shot. at 5th level most of them would get multiattack and do close to twice that value. So if your Rogue has say two CR4 Veterans that can get to him he is probably dead .... not downed but dead. The first attack takes him down and the next three burn through his death saves.

6 10th level characters against 3 young white dragons is an "easy" encounter. 3 young white dragons do 41 of damage each with their attacks (not even considering their breath weapon), so they could EASILY take down your 80hp fighter that only has 52 hit points left without even using a breath weapon on him. Once he is down 3 more hits kills him and each one of them gets 3 attacks a round.

6 of those dragons would be between hard and deadly. Fireball is not powerful enough to kill them even with max damage and 6 of them have more than enough to completely kill (not drop, but kill as in dead) your 80hp fighter if they concentrate on him. As a matter of fact if your wizard fireballs him and he saves against the fireball then all of the dragons breathe on him and he makes every single one of those saves before he drops he still DIES - taking half damage from 3 breath weapons and a 14 damage fireball will put him down and the next 3 breath weapons deal 1 death save each, killing him.

Those examples are in a single round of combat and you are expecting him to last 3-4 rounds to win that fight?
 
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tetrasodium

Legend
Supporter
Epic
A 35 hit point Rogue that loses 28 hit points has 7 left and the vast majority of monsters can do that on one shot. at 5th level most of them would get multiattack and do close to twice that value. So if your Rogue has say two CR4 Veterans that can get to him he is probably dead .... not downed but dead. The first attack takes him down and the next three burn through his death saves.

6 10th level characters against 3 young white dragons is an "easy" encounter. 3 young white dragons do 41 of damage each with their attacks (not even includingconsidering their breath weapon), so they could EASILY take down your 80hp fighter that only has 52 hit points left without even using a breath weapon on him. Once he is down 3 more hits kills him and each one of them gets 3 attacks a round.
6 of those dragons would be between hard and deadly. Fireball is not powerful enough to kill themDIE even with max damage and 6 of them have more than enough to completely kill (not drop, but kill as in dead) your 80hp fighter if they concentrate on him. As a matter of fact if your wizard fireballs him and he saves against the fireball then all of the dragons breathe on him and he makes every single one of those saves before he drops he still DIES - taking half damage from 3 breath weapons and a 14 damage fireball will put him down and the next 3 breath weapons deal 1 death save each, killing him.

Those examples are in a single round of combat and you are expecting him to last 3-4 rounds to win that fight?
No more flatfooted AC. A downed rogue benefits from their full dex bonus, full armor bonus, possible shield bonus or whatever, possible dodge. Failing all of that the rogue can enjoy healing word healing light hp LoH cure wounds heal kit etc before it pulls the trigger on attack->cunning action disengage.

The rogue can do all of that because...
W hen damage
reduces you to 0 hit points and there is damage remaining, you die [ONLY] if the remaining damage equals or exceeds your hit point maximum.
Combined with excessive ease of healing a downed PC as noted above ensures that this is an extremely high bar to meet without a "rocks fall" type encounter.
If damage reduces you to 0 hit points and fails to kill you, you fall unconscious (see appendix A). This unconsciousness ends if you regain any hit points.
before this comes into play
On your third failure, you die. The successes and failures don't need to be consecutive; keep track of both until you collect three of a kind. The number of both is reset to zero when you regain any hit points or become stable.

Just in case a party didn't connect all of those blindingly obvious dots the same pg197 in the phb where they are all spelled out closes on this note
The best way to save a creature with 0 hit points is to heal it. If healing is unavailable, the creature can at least be stabilized so that it isn’t killed by a failed death saving throw.

In order for there to be a serious risk monsters need the ability to gain the ability to reliably hit PC ACs that they currently lack due to Bounded Accuracy. If the monsters had the tohit needed to reliably hit the PCs it wasn't that 28hp average that really cinched it because death saves & healing ensure that the monsters need to do it back to back to back before the target PC can get "any" healing to reset the situation to monsters needing to get back to back to back attacks that drop>fail 2 death saves>fail the last death saves.

If the monster is able to reliably hit a PC it probably also has no issue slaughtering one instantly with almost guaranteed death by massive damage or presents a similarly impossible encounter.
 

ECMO3

Hero
No more flatfooted AC. A downed rogue benefits from their full dex bonus, full armor bonus, possible shield bonus or whatever, possible dodge. Failing all of that the rogue can enjoy healing word healing light hp LoH cure wounds heal kit etc before it pulls the trigger on attack->cunning action disengage.

They are at advantage to hit the Rogue once he is downed and he has an AC of 16. Rogues do not have proficiency in shields and I also used the 35hps you quoted which is more than most 5th level Rogues have. Also I misread, Veterans actually get 3 attacks, not 2 (2 with a longsword and one with a shortsword), so if he is in reach (and he is because you fireballed him along with them), then they have 6 attacks against AC16 to eliminate 7hps and 3 death saves and after the first 7hps those rolls are with advantage.

Healing word and healing kits do not work if he is dead. I suppose you could use revify if you have a 500gp diamond lying around.



Combined with excessive ease of healing a downed PC as noted above ensures that this is an extremely high bar to meet without a "rocks fall" type encounter.

I did not say downed I said dead. Three hits at 0 hit points kill him (unless one crits and then it is 2 hits) and two Veterans have 6 attacks to drain 7 hit points and him three more times to kill him. Make it 3 Veterans and they have 9 attacks to do it in.

Also even if they don't manage to kill him, if they only get 2 death saves on him on their turn then he has to roll on his turn, so if the guy with healing word goes after him in the initiative order he STILL has a 45% chance of dying before there is a chance at healing word.

I did the math on this, if he has 16 AC and the Wizard leaves him with 7 hit points and then 2 Veterans attack him, he has a 38% chance of dying (not down, dead) before anyone else even gets a turn. If the Rogue is in initiative before the guy that is going to heal him, the overall chance of dying before he can get healed is 49%. Those numbers include using uncanny dodge the first time he is hit, if he already burned his reaction those numbers go up to 61% and 69%.


If the monster is able to reliably hit a PC it probably also has no issue slaughtering one instantly with almost guaranteed death by massive damage or presents a similarly impossible encounter.
The monster is not really slaughtering him, the wizard is because he fireballed him and took away 80% of his abnormally high hit points before the monster even went.

It is also not massive damage that is going to kill him. When you're down each hit causes a failed dex save even if it is only 1 hp of damage. If they hit you 3 times while you are down you are dead.

I will add if he has average hit points (28) he is at zero before the first bad guy even makes his attacks against him.
 
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Micah Sweet

Level Up & OSR Enthusiast
They are at advantage to hit the Rogue once he is downed and he has an AC of 16. Rogues do not have proficiency in shields and I also used the 35hps you quoted which is more than most 5th level Rogues have. Also I misread, Veterans actually get 3 attacks, not 2 (2 with a longsword and one with a shortsword), so if he is in reach (and he is because you fireballed him along with them), then they have 6 attacks against AC16 to eliminate 7hps and 3 death saves and after the first 7hps those rolls are with advantage. That is if there is 2 of them. If there is 3 of them they have 9 attacks.

Healing word and healing kits do not work if he is dead. I suppose you could use revify if you have a 500gp diamond lying around.





I did not say downed I said dead. Three hits at 0 hit points kill him (unless one crits and then it is 2 hits) and two Veterans have 6 attacks to drain 7 hit points and 3 saves.

Also even if they don't manage to kill him, if only they get 2 death saves on him then he has to roll on his turn, so if the guy with healing word goes after him in initiative he STILL has a 50% chance of dying before healing word (or 47.5% if he happens to be a halfling and can discard a 1).



The monster is not really slaughtering him, the wizard is because he fireballed him and took away 80% of his abnormally high hit points before the monster even went.

I will add if he has average hit points (28) he is at zero before the first bad guy even makes his attacks.
45% chance. 10 is a success.
 

tetrasodium

Legend
Supporter
Epic
They are at advantage to hit the Rogue once he is downed and he has an AC of 16. Rogues do not have proficiency in shields and I also used the 35hps you quoted which is more than most 5th level Rogues have. Also I misread, Veterans actually get 3 attacks, not 2 (2 with a longsword and one with a shortsword), so if he is in reach (and he is because you fireballed him along with them), then they have 6 attacks against AC16 to eliminate 7hps and 3 death saves and after the first 7hps those rolls are with advantage. That is if there is 2 of them. If there is 3 of them they have 9 attacks.

Healing word and healing kits do not work if he is dead. I suppose you could use revify if you have a 500gp diamond lying around.





I did not say downed I said dead. Three hits at 0 hit points kill him (unless one crits and then it is 2 hits) and two Veterans have 6 attacks to drain 7 hit points and 3 saves.

Also even if they don't manage to kill him, if only they get 2 death saves on him then he has to roll on his turn, so if the guy with healing word goes after him in initiative he STILL has a 50% chance of dying before healing word (or 47.5% if he happens to be a halfling and can discard a 1).



The monster is not really slaughtering him, the wizard is because he fireballed him and took away 80% of his abnormally high hit points before the monster even went.

I will add if he has average hit points (28) he is at zero before the first bad guy even makes his attacks.
Needing to change a crunchy rogue above level five or six who puts in effort to be crunchy for a level 5 rogue who does not in order to make the point is pretty much pointing a spotlight at the exception that proves the norm of it not being a big deal. This started about how specifically there's no fear of hitting crunchy types the GM is pressured to attack not squishy types that the GM would get labeled a killer GM if they went after the squishy pc too seriously. Specifically at higher levels than five or six.

studded leather(12ac) ++4 or 5 from dex possible +2 from a shield possible +1 from each of things like defensive fighting style +1 armor +1 shield +1 ring of protection +1 cloak of protection ranging from a crunchy PC with an ac of 18-24. The veteran that you mention has a +5 to hit & needs to roll a 13 or better to hit off the shelf non magic gear. It does not have the tohit needed to reliably hit a PC who has not even improved upon nonmagical mundane gear let alone one who put in some effort.

The veteran would indeed have advantage on attacks after the rogue is down, but it does an average of 7 6 & 5 on its attacks for a total of 18 average if it rolls 13 or better on each against the hypothetical 30hp rogue who still has 12 HP & should be capable of taking two more average attacks from a second veteran if all five of those attacks were a 13 or better. After the veterans made five d20 rolls of 13 or better to drop the fireballed rogue who failed the dex save they still need to make two successful attacks with advantage before another player can provide the rogue with any healing. If the group consists of 3-4 level 7 players the bare minimum number of veterans(3) required to kill a fireballed rogue who failed the dex save is only a medium or hard encounter not deadly or lethal

Add to that, the veteran you mention has a measly 17 ac 58 hp and +1 dex with no save proficiencies at all . A 28 point fireball will being it to 30hp. It's not hard for the group to deal 30hp when the rogue alone can average 15-20 or easy. In order for players to hit a 17ac with 18 in their prime attribute, a starting +0 weapon & level 5-8's +3 proficiency bonus they need to roll a ten or better on a d20 where the average is ten point five.

You have not made a case for a serious threat to the crunchy PCs because the veteran needs a 13 or better to hit +0 nonmagical gear on each of those possible three attacks. If the group is too small to both burn them down and toss a heal of some form on that rogue so the rogue can disengage & switch to ranged attacks then it's pretty much an encounter that swaps the LMOP opening goblins with veterans & playing it out the rocks fall scenario with a twist at level 5.

Fireball doesn't bounce off walls or anything so in a situation where it might matter like your exception the caster can just position it off to the side or do things like hold their cast till the rogue can scoot around a bit or cunning action disengage like just about any rogue not trying to be the tank is going to do most rounds.
 

ECMO3

Hero
Needing to change a crunchy rogue above level five or six who puts in effort to be crunchy for a level 5 rogue who does not in order to make the point is pretty much pointing a spotlight at the exception that proves the norm of it not being a big deal. This started about how specifically there's no fear of hitting crunchy types the GM is pressured to attack not squishy types that the GM would get labeled a killer GM if they went after the squishy pc too seriously. Specifically at higher levels than five or six.
I don't understand all this. This is about your claim that a Wizard can fireball his own party members with no problem, and I used one of your examples (a 35hp 5th level Rogue) to show that was not true.


studded leather(12ac) ++4 or 5 from dex possible +2 from a shield possible +1 from each of things like defensive fighting style +1 armor +1 shield +1 ring of protection +1 cloak of protection ranging from a crunchy PC with an ac of 18-24. The veteran that you mention has a +5 to hit & needs to roll a 13 or better to hit off the shelf non magic gear. It does not have the tohit needed to reliably hit a PC who has not even improved upon nonmagical mundane gear let alone one who put in some effort.

Rouges do not have shield proficiency or fighting styles and if your using point buy or standard array your dexterity will be between 16-19 (+3 to +4).

The veteran would indeed have advantage on attacks after the rogue is down, but it does an average of 7 6 & 5 on its attacks for a total of 18 average if it rolls 13 or better on each against the hypothetical 30hp rogue who still has 12 HP & should be capable of taking two more average attacks from a second veteran if all five of those attacks were a 13 or better.

Why would he have 12 hps? 35 hit point Rouge -28 from being fireballed by the Wizard has 7 hps left before they start swinging at him.

35-28=7 not 12

After the veterans made five d20 rolls of 13 or better to drop the fireballed rogue who failed the dex save they still need to make two successful attacks with advantage before another player can provide the rogue with any healing. If the group consists of 3-4 level 7 players the bare minimum number of veterans(3) required to kill a fireballed rogue who failed the dex save is only a medium or hard encounter not deadly or lethal.

It is not a medium encounter.

To start even if he has 12 hit points two Veterans can kill him. You said "the bare minimum". That would be 1 as one hit and 2 more hits with him down can kill him if one of the hits while downed was a crit. It will also kill him without crits if he fails just one death save. So as a point of fact the "bare minimum" is one Veteran.

I agree it is not a deadly encounter, it is easy. Assuming a party of 4 5th level players (remember the Rogue is 5th level, not 7th, he just has an abnormally high AC and high hit points) a lethal encounter would be 7 Veterans, not 2.

If you have 7 veterans attacking a "normal" 5th level Rogue with AC16 and 7 hps left after being fireballed he has a 99% chance of dying.

If you have 7 veterans attacking your over the top 5th level 20 Dex homebrew Rogue with protection fighting style, shield proficiency, a +1 shield and +1 Ring of protection who somehow also got an extra 5 hit points (AC22, 12 hps) and those 7 Veterans attack him they STILL have a 67% chance of killing him. Note if we were using RAW, in addition to the over the top magic items, it would take 4 ASIs to build this Rogue using standard array or point buy and he only has 1 ASI at 5th level.

Those numbers assume he still has uncanny dodge available and they do not include the possibility of leaving him nearly dead and having him fail a death save himself.


Add to that, the veteran you mention has a measly 17 ac 58 hp and +1 dex with no save proficiencies at all . A 28 point fireball will being it to 30hp. It's not hard for the group to deal 30hp when the rogue alone can average 15-20 or easy. In order for players to hit a 17ac with 18 in their prime attribute, a starting +0 weapon & level 5-8's +3 proficiency bonus they need to roll a ten or better on a d20 where the average is ten point five.

Yeah the fireball took away less than half their hit points .... if they failed the save. Sure you can kill them easy, they are CR4. But if your wizard fireaballed you they can kill you easy too, really easy.


You have not made a case for a serious threat to the crunchy PCs because the veteran needs a 13 or better to hit +0 nonmagical gear on each of those possible three attacks.

First off the 13 is off, that is too high an AC. But even if we use this number each of them has a 78% chance of hitting you one time or more (specifically 22% chance of 0 hits, 43% chance of 1 hit, 28% chance of 2 hits, 6% chance of 3 hits) that is for EACH one that attacks the Rogue and it is using the 13 you say they need to hit you.


If the group is too small to both burn them down and toss a heal of some form on that rogue so the rogue can disengage & switch to ranged attacks then it's pretty much an encounter that swaps the LMOP opening goblins with veterans & playing it out the rocks fall scenario with a twist at level 5.

The Rogue can't disengage and switch to range, he would have to disengage and then dash, otherwise they could simply close with him and attach him again. Rogue disengages, moves 30 feet, drops his melee weapon, pulls out his bow and shoots it, then the Veterans use theor move to start attacking him again.

In the Goblin ambush in LMOP there are Goblins on both sides of the road and if I remember correctly you are escorting a wagon and civilians. Depending on the map used it might not be possible to get all the Goblins in one fireball (usually wouldn't be possible I would say), but aside from that there are civilians in/with the Wagon. When you drop down a fireball at ground zero to get all the enemies you are going to kill all the people you are trying to protect, probably the horses pulling the wagon and set the wagon on fire. The LMOP ambush illustrates my point very, very well - It is extremely difficult to use fireball to get a large number of enemies!

Fireball doesn't bounce off walls or anything so in a situation where it might matter like your exception the caster can just position it off to the side or do things like hold their cast till the rogue can scoot around a bit or cunning action disengage like just about any rogue not trying to be the tank is going to do most rounds.

The entire discussion is based on the premise the enemies are mixed in with your players. That is what this is about. Sure they can position it to miss the players and that is what most casters usually do ... but they don't get the guy who won initiative and is between your Rogue and Fighter, they don't get the guy in the corner because making it cover the corner will also hit the Cleric ..... In the case of the LMOP example, if you do this you fireball one side of the road and get two of the four Goblins/Veterans.

It is rare, very rare that you can hit every enemy in an encouter with a fireball unless the caster wins initiative outright.
 

tetrasodium

Legend
Supporter
Epic
I don't understand all this. This is about your claim that a Wizard can fireball his own party members with no problem, and I used one of your examples (a 35hp 5th level Rogue) to show that was not true.




Rouges do not have shield proficiency or fighting styles and if your using point buy or standard array your dexterity will be between 16-19 (+3 to +4).



Why would he have 12 hps? 35 hit point Rouge -28 from being fireballed by the Wizard has 7 hps left before they start swinging at him.

35-28=7 not 12



It is not a medium encounter.

To start even if he has 12 hit points two Veterans can kill him. You said "the bare minimum". That would be 1 as one hit and 2 more hits with him down can kill him if one of the hits while downed was a crit. It will also kill him without crits if he fails just one death save. So as a point of fact the "bare minimum" is one Veteran.

I agree it is not a deadly encounter, it is easy. Assuming a party of 4 5th level players (remember the Rogue is 5th level, not 7th, he just has an abnormally high AC and high hit points) a lethal encounter would be 7 Veterans, not 2.

If you have 7 veterans attacking a "normal" 5th level Rogue with AC16 and 7 hps left after being fireballed he has a 99% chance of dying.

If you have 7 veterans attacking your over the top 5th level 20 Dex homebrew Rogue with protection fighting style, shield proficiency, a +1 shield and +1 Ring of protection who somehow also got an extra 5 hit points (AC22, 12 hps) and those 7 Veterans attack him they STILL have a 67% chance of killing him. Note if we were using RAW, in addition to the over the top magic items, it would take 4 ASIs to build this Rogue using standard array or point buy and he only has 1 ASI at 5th level.

Those numbers assume he still has uncanny dodge available and they do not include the possibility of leaving him nearly dead and having him fail a death save himself.




Yeah the fireball took away less than half their hit points .... if they failed the save. Sure you can kill them easy, they are CR4. But if your wizard fireaballed you they can kill you easy too, really easy.




First off the 13 is off, that is too high an AC. But even if we use this number each of them has a 78% chance of hitting you one time or more (specifically 22% chance of 0 hits, 43% chance of 1 hit, 28% chance of 2 hits, 6% chance of 3 hits) that is for EACH one that attacks the Rogue and it is using the 13 you say they need to hit you.




The Rogue can't disengage and switch to range, he would have to disengage and then dash, otherwise they could simply close with him and attach him again. Rogue disengages, moves 30 feet, drops his melee weapon, pulls out his bow and shoots it, then the Veterans use theor move to start attacking him again.

In the Goblin ambush in LMOP there are Goblins on both sides of the road and if I remember correctly you are escorting a wagon and civilians. Depending on the map used it might not be possible to get all the Goblins in one fireball (usually wouldn't be possible I would say), but aside from that there are civilians in/with the Wagon. When you drop down a fireball at ground zero to get all the enemies you are going to kill all the people you are trying to protect, probably the horses pulling the wagon and set the wagon on fire. The LMOP ambush illustrates my point very, very well - It is extremely difficult to use fireball to get a large number of enemies!



The entire discussion is based on the premise the enemies are mixed in with your players. That is what this is about. Sure they can position it to miss the players and that is what most casters usually do ... but they don't get the guy who won initiative and is between your Rogue and Fighter, they don't get the guy in the corner because making it cover the corner will also hit the Cleric ..... In the case of the LMOP example, if you do this you fireball one side of the road and get two of the four Goblins/Veterans.

It is rare, very rare that you can hit every enemy in an encouter with a fireball unless the caster wins initiative outright.
People don't actually play the way you are suggesting. Fireball gets dropped where it can deal the most damage at the least cost unless there is a good reason for it to include allies. The combat you are suggesting is a speedbump that does not create a good reason that justifies including the rogue just for giggles. That remains true until you start including things like "well what if the veterans are focused on an actually squishy pc who needs to be rescued asap or die & that requires including the rogue because we both know he's going to just cunning action disengage"
 

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