D&D and the rising pandemic

[The Green Hermit]

Yeah, as always the poor and vulnerable are hit the hardest.

Not everyone can learn from home.

I teach at an Online school and even our students are having more difficulties than normal with this, and our routines/procedures haven't changed all that much.

 

[Zardnaar]

Fire up your popcorn & get comfy: we’ve got states opening ahead of the schedule recommended by the models the Feds are using- including having a 14-day continuous decline in coronavirus cases before reopening- AND Rick Bright has been removed from his post for applying the scientific method.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/22/coronavirus-latest-news/

Hope it works out, but I don’t think it will.

I would but we ate the popcorn 4 weeks ago.

These were good though.

 

[ad_hoc]

Fire up your popcorn & get comfy: we’ve got states opening ahead of the schedule recommended by the models the Feds are using- including having a 14-day continuous decline in coronavirus cases before reopening- AND Rick Bright has been removed from his post for applying the scientific method.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/22/coronavirus-latest-news/

Hope it works out, but I don’t think it will.

It's scary when they're putting pressure on doctors and scientists to support their political narratives.

 

[Zardnaar]

First deaths a lot earlier than thought.

Coronavirus: First US deaths weeks earlier than thought

Two newly identified cases in California are now believed to be the earliest virus deaths in the US.

www.bbc.com

Means it probably got to the US in January.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Sweden may be ultimately correct with their strategy: If there is no vaccine or treatment, and the only immunity is natural, then it seems likely that everyone will ultimately be exposed and discover, weal or woe, if they have natural resistance. That would make current strategies effective only to the extent that harm is spread out over time.

That’s essentially the long term version of “flattening the curve.”

The thing is, Sweden’s path is, IMHO, unnecessarily risky, gambling with millions of lives against possible losses of hundreds of thousands when stricter social controls are buying time in other countries to develop both vaccines and treatments.

At the very least, some of the oldest methods of anti-virology- using the antibodies, plasma etc., of the survivors to kickstart the immune responses of the unaffected may deliver treatments...but that takes time.

I don't think that there has been much of any articulation of how we get from now to a point where Coronavirus is no longer a daily concern.
Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti

We’re still in the earliest stages of fighting this monster, We don’t know how long acquired immunity lasts- if it exists. We don’t even know the full range effects of Covid-19 on the human body- besides the lungs, we know it affects the brain, the liver, the cardiovascular system- much less HOW, WHY, and for how long.

As the epidemiologist pointed out, there may be effects we might not be able to diagnose for decades, making this a nastier virus than we think it is, simply based on mortality rates and virulence.

 

[FrogReaver]

That’s essentially the long term version of “flattening the curve.”

The thing is, Sweden’s path is, IMHO, unnecessarily risky, gambling with millions of lives against possible losses of hundreds of thousands when stricter social controls are buying time in other countries to develop both vaccines and treatments.

At the very least, some of the oldest methods of anti-virology- using the antibodies, plasma etc., of the survivors to kickstart the immune responses of the unaffected may deliver treatments...but that takes time.



We’re still in the earliest stages of fighting this monster, We don’t know how long acquired immunity lasts- if it exists. We don’t even know the full range effects of Covid-19 on the human body- besides the lungs, we know it affects the v
brain, the liver, the cardiovascular system- much less HOW, WHY, and for how long.

As the epidemiologist pointed out, there may be effects we might not be able to diagnose for decades, making this a nastier virus than we think it is, simply based on mortality rates and virulence.

So I get called out when I start talking about a bunch of stuff we don't know about the virus. How about I call you out for the same. We don't know hardly any of that so its not better of you to suggest the worst case than it is for me to suggest the best.

 

[ad_hoc]

That’s essentially the long term version of “flattening the curve.”

The thing is, Sweden’s path is, IMHO, unnecessarily risky, gambling with millions of lives against possible losses of hundreds of thousands when stricter social controls are buying time in other countries to develop both vaccines and treatments.

At the very least, some of the oldest methods of anti-virology- using the antibodies, plasma etc., of the survivors to kickstart the immune responses of the unaffected may deliver treatments...but that takes time.

I think the worst aspect of it is that as a wealthy nation they have no need to remain open.

They're putting their wants against the consequences of death and trauma.

It's odd to me that of all nations it's Sweden to behave like this. If I had to guess what countries would flaunt the recommendations to enact quarantine protocols Sweden would be at the bottom of my list (but then of course I'm ignorant to the current status of their government).

 

[Zardnaar]

So I get called out when I start talking about a bunch of stuff we don't know about the virus. How about I call you out for the same. We don't know hardly any of that so its not better of you to suggest the worst case than it is for me to suggest the best.

Being to optimistic leads to complacency and that gets people killed.

Herd immunity for example may end up as the best approach but I wouldn't be using it as my first approach more of a plan B.

Sweden's approach might be the best option long term but we don't know. If there's no vaccine and Corvid is recurring then yeah we will have to do that regardless.

It's not just in terms of overwhelming the hospitals in terms of bed capacity but also buying time to get more beds and ppe for the staff.

In Italy for example the doctors and nurses got sick and died. Some committed suicide as well.

Turns out ventilators don't make a massive difference.

Realistically one day numerous nation's might have to start making some crappy choices. Those choices mean that people will die.

But there might be better choices to make or ways to minimize the downsides of those choices.

 

[Zardnaar]

I think the worst aspect of it is that as a wealthy nation they have no need to remain open.

They're putting their wants against the consequences of death and trauma.

It's odd to me that of all nations it's Sweden to behave like this. If I had to guess what countries would flaunt the recommendations to enact quarantine protocols Sweden would be at the bottom of my list (but then of course I'm ignorant to the current status of their government).

Sweden has several things going for it.

1. One of the best social security nets in the world.

2. Cultural/social cohesion.

3. Reasonably high numbers of medical professionals.

There health system hasn't been overwhelmed.

Now if there's a second wave a lot of people who have died will die anyway.

Sweden was to complacent but they're always high in lists of happiness, least corrupt, best healthcare type nation's. They got complacent.

Singapore also was complacent but their approach didn't work as well as what people were claiming a month ago.

It's also not known if lockdowns the best approach. Short term it saves lives long term idk and you can't really sustain lockdown for more than a few months.

Without first hand experience people tend to forget about things after a generation.

One can read about the Spanish flu or Great Depression but it's different than living through it

 

[tomBitonti]

They cannot articulate that which is not known. Authorities don't know if, as a population, we naturally develop herd immunity. They don't know when/if a vaccine will be available. The only reasonable approach, then, is to watch the number of folks who have it (as best as possible), and when that starts steadily decreasing sufficiently, and they don't know when that will be.

Of course, this plan means there might be resurgence - and that means intermittent periods of social distancing where and when the virus comes back.

Understood.
But, at least that much could be articulated, with clear

Being to optimistic leads to complacency and that gets people killed.

Herd immunity for example may end up as the best approach but I wouldn't be using it as my first approach more of a plan B.

Sweden's approach might be the best option long term but we don't know. If there's no vaccine and Corvid is recurring then yeah we will have to do that regardless.

It's not just in terms of overwhelming the hospitals in terms of bed capacity but also buying time to get more beds and ppe for the staff.

In Italy for example the doctors and nurses got sick and died. Some committed suicide as well.

Turns out ventilators don't make a massive difference.

Realistically one day numerous nation's might have to start making some crappy choices. Those choices mean that people will die.

But there might be better choices to make or ways to minimize the downsides of those choices.

I was just reading this: Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators | Physician's Weekly
Questions about the efficacy of intensive care for Covid-19 patients.

One presumes that hospital care makes a big difference to Covid-19 outcomes. Does anyone have numbers on this?

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti