D&D (2024) D&D Pre-orders; this is sad

[mamba]

So what makes DnD different and ripe for being a subscription model? I only need a few days of the service to copy everything that was digital and play for years, but that will be a superior subscription model for some reason? If there are markets that aren't subscription friendly, then doesn't make sense that DnD could be unfriendly to such a model?

DDB already is a subscription model and pretty successful, the VTT will further push it in that direction (if WotC succeeds with it, they would not spend 10s of millions if this were not their goal)

 

[mamba]

I don't state the opposite is true.

you absolutely do

it's not baseless, it is an educated guess.

My educated guess: probably not.

no difference...

I just doubt that you have any clue.

yeah, I'd say the same about you, so i guess we end it here. You gave it your best arguments and I told you what my rationale is, we are not going to convince each other and there is no point in just repeating the same stuff yet another time

I am shocked by yours, if you think that all is "basic" math. To be honest.

the math is addition and subtraction, can't get any more basic than that. Maybe throw in some multiplication and division. Nothing a 6th grader should have difficulty with. The difficulty is getting the right numbers to apply it to, not the math

 

[UngeheuerLich]

you absolutely do

I never said I have numbers to back it up. Just my wild guess.

no difference...

Expected that you don't see a difference there.

yeah, I'd say the same about you, so i guess we end it here. You gave it your best arguments and I told you what my rationale is, we are not going to convince each other and there is no point in just repeating the same stuff yet another time

You are right. Difference: I don't claim the numbers are there. I offered a different view. Sometimes knowing that the numbers are not sufficient to draw a conclusion (>95% is laughable with that lottle data)

the math is addition and subtraction, can't get any more basic than that. Maybe throw in some multiplication and division. Nothing a 6th grader should have difficulty with. The difficulty is getting the right numbers to apply it to, not the math

Ok. That is really laughable.

Do you really think, all it takes is seeing book profit = 10 dollars, dndbeyond profit is 25 dollars, ergo books = bad is all you have to do?
People study for years and make market researches* to make educated guesses. And you just look at a few numbers and say: I know for sure?

*I am no marketing guy, but I know for sure, 6th grade math won't get you far.

 

[WanderingMystic]

So while I do not work for WotC I do work inside the business. When you look at the cost of a book you are looking at the cost to pay the artist and writers first and foremost, this cost is the same where it is a digital or print media. For print media you then need to factor in the cost of printing which due to their ability to place large orders is not as much as most people might think. These are then sold to companies like diamond or Amazon at a wholesale price. Your local store even your chains buy from them at roughly the same price as Amazon sells it for. Diamond and Amazon buy for about $15 a book for a $50 book then sell to your local store for about $25-$30 per book. WotC profit is around $10-12 per book.

Digital is a whole different creature since you are paying employees for coding and maintenance but I would guess that they make closer to $20 profit per book. That is all before paying the cost of writing the book and the art, but once those have been payed off then you are looking at 10-12 for a hard copy and about double that for a digital. The fact is that a decent margin of people buy both and their profits from buying print pdf bundles are much greater .

 

[UngeheuerLich]

So while I do not work for WotC I do work inside the business. When you look at the cost of a book you are looking at the cost to pay the artist and writers first and foremost, this cost is the same where it is a digital or print media. For print media you then need to factor in the cost of printing which due to their ability to place large orders is not as much as most people might think. These are then sold to companies like diamond or Amazon at a wholesale price. Your local store even your chains buy from them at roughly the same price as Amazon sells it for. Diamond and Amazon buy for about $15 a book for a $50 book then sell to your local store for about $25-$30 per book. WotC profit is around $10-12 per book.

Digital is a whole different creature since you are paying employees for coding and maintenance but I would guess that they make closer to $20 profit per book. That is all before paying the cost of writing the book and the art, but once those have been payed off then you are looking at 10-12 for a hard copy and about double that for a digital. The fact is that a decent margin of people buy both and their profits from buying print pdf bundles are much greater .

Thanks for the elaboration.

So to use basic math:

10+20 > 20

is what your last sentence means. Correct?

 

[mamba]

I never said I have numbers to back it up. Just my wild guess.
Expected that you don't see a difference there.

because there isn't one, we both called ours an educated guess and arrived at the opposite (probable) result

You are right. Difference: I don't claim the numbers are there.

What part of me calling mine a guess do you not understand... show me where I claimed to have numbers

Do you really think, all it takes is seeing book profit = 10 dollars, dndbeyond profit is 25 dollars, ergo books = bad is all you have to do?

if you had those two numbers then yes, you are basically done, the math is only needed to get to those two numbers

People study for years and make market researches* to make educated guesses. And you just look at a few numbers and say: I know for sure?

You are missing the point, this is not about market research. The question was whether WotC makes more profit from a digital or physical sale. Tell me how you want to show this beyond the shadow of a doubt without WotCs numbers.

They do not have to be on a per book basis (that is where division comes in), but you do need their costs and number of units sold and at what price. Without those you have next to nothing, and once you have that all you do need are the basic arithmetic operators...

 

[mamba]

So to use basic math:

10+20 > 20

is what your last sentence means. Correct?

10+20 is always > 20, you do not need the last sentence for that

The question is how many people buy both, and we are yet again at you looking at today's numbers when I am very clearly saying this is 10+ years out and WotC is working towards more favorable numbers to make the change. That seems to be your biggest stumbling block, either missing that point or simply insisting on nothing changing for the next 15 years that would affect this equation

 

[UngeheuerLich]

because there isn't one, we both called ours an educated guess and arrived at the opposite (probable) result

Wrong. My educated guess was that your numbers are not sufficient for any proof.

What part of me calling mine a guess do you not understand... show me where I claimed to have numbers

You gave a post with numbers.

if you had those two numbers then yes, you are basically done, the math is only needed to get to those two numbers

Nope.

You are missing the point, this is not about market research. The question was whether WotC makes more profit from a digital or physical sale.

That is obvious. But the question is, will they make more money not selling books at all. This is about market research. If you can't translate 1 book into 1 dndbeyond sale, your "math" crumbles. So we first have to know, how many people do buy both anyway? Every one of those people will just spend less, if they don't offer books.

Tell me how you want to show this beyond the shadow of a doubt without WotCs numbers.

I don't have to. I do not claim I have numbers. I don't know what the future brings. My wild guess: we will still see books as long as I live (hopefully for 50 years or so)

They do not have to be on a per book basis (that is where division comes in), but you do need their costs and number of units sold and at what price. Without those you have next to nothing,

Exactly. We have next to nothing. Finally you realize that.

and once you have that all you do need are the basic arithmetic operators...

Yes... and no. You should have a look into statistics some day.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

10+20 is always > 20, you do not need the last sentence for that

The question is how many people buy both, and we are yet again at you looking at today's numbers when I am very clearly saying this is 10+ years out and WotC is working towards more favorable numbers to make the change.

Maybe, maybe not. Right now we are... Now...

That seems to be your biggest stumbling block, either missing that point or simply insisting on nothing changing for the next 15 years that would affect this equation

I can imagine a lot happening. No stumbling block. Fact is: we can't predict what happens im 10 years. Not with the few data points we currently have.

 

[mamba]

Wrong. My educated guess was that your numbers are not sufficient for any proof.

your educated guess was that they probably make more per printed book. You do not need to guess that I have no sufficient proof, I am saying so myself...

You gave a post with numbers.

which one? The book sales price breakdown from Alphastream? That is a guess already and that still does not say anything about the digital side...

But the question is, will they make more money not selling books at all. This is about market research.

this is still 15 years out, no market research today will give you that

We have next to nothing. Finally you realize that.

I have been saying this for quite some time, not sure why you missed that.

Yes... and no. You should have a look into statistics some day.

I have, you should look into things beyond math some day