WotC Comparing EN World's Demographics to the D&D Community's

WotC released some figures this week. I thought it would be fun to compare them to the demographics of our own little community here on EN World for the same period (2019).

WotC uses a metric it refers to as 40,000,000 'D&D Fans', but that's not defined. For the purposes of this, I assume a fan is a person who has interacted directly with D&D in some way (played a game, bought a book, watch a stream, played a video game, etc.) A fan's a fan, however they interact with D&D!

For comparison, I'm using people who have interacted with EN World in some way -- and what we can measure is unique visitors. Obviously this isn't on the same scale (40M people is a LOT) but it doesn't matter too much for what we're doing here; they're both samples for conversation. So, let's start at the top!
  • Short version: EN World skews younger, but more male than the overall D&D community.
WotC is looking at 40M fans, we're looking at 5.6M unique users (as opposed to overall visits, which numbers in the tens of millions). We get this data using Google Analytics, which provides a lot of anonymized demographic data. I can't identify any individual person with this; it merely shows the overall numbers. Our demographic data includes just under half of those 5.6M users; I don't know how WotC's data is derived. I know they do surveys from time to time, but I don't know what percentage of those 40M fans fill out those forms.

As an aside - 40 million D&D fans is awesome! We're definitely living in a golden age of tabletop gaming, and as the market leader, WotC is the entity most responsible for bringing in new gamers. Well, maybe Critical Role is, but they're playing D&D!

Age

So, the controversial data that everybody on Twitter is talking about -- the age groups. Google Analytics breaks it down a little differently to WotC's figures, so here's what we have. GA doesn't give stats on people under 18 years of age. The figures below are those GA has data on for EN World -- obviously that's only about half of overall users.

Age​
Numbers​
Percentage​
18-24592,401 users24.58%
25-341,309,373 users54.33%
35-44330,755 users13.46%
45-54138,372 users5.74%
55-6426,689 users1.11%
65+12,631 users0.52%

As you can see, the figures aren't as evenly distributed as WotC's. There's a significant number of 25-34 year-olds, and a higher number of 18-24 year-olds. Also, it shows people above the age of 45, who don't appear in WotC's stats.
  • We show a slightly higher percentage of people 34 or under (79% compared to WotC's measure of 74%) although we're not measuring people under 18, which would skew it younger if we were.
  • 26% of WotC's audience is over 25, while only 20% of EN World's is.
  • 7.37% of EN World's audience is over 45.
  • Under 18s are not included in the stats.
  • EN World skews younger than the D&D community overall.
Screen Shot 2020-04-25 at 12.09.27 AM.png

For comparison, here are WotC's figures.

Screen Shot 2020-04-25 at 12.42.49 AM.png


I've turned them into a quick and dirty bar graph. The number of players increases slowly from 8 up until age 35, peaking at ages 30-34, and then it starts to drop off sharply. That's the same age that the drop-off on EN World's readership takes place, too. Seems about 30 is peak age.

wotc_age.jpg


And here are those same figures in absolute numbers -- 10% of 40,000,000 people is a LOT of people!

Age​
Percentage​
Numbers​
8-1212%4.8 million
13-1713%5.2 million
18-2415%6 million
25-2915%6 million
30-3419%7.6 million
35-3915%6 million
40-4511%4.4 million

Gender

The gender demographics here skew much more male than WotC's stats do. Google Analytics shows male and female (it doesn't track non-binary people) and reports on under half of overall users (2.3M out of 5.6M total).

Of those, it reports 85.56% male, 14.44% female. It doesn't provide data on non-binary visitors.

Screen Shot 2020-04-25 at 12.08.51 AM.png



Geography

WotC's report shows that Europe is growing for them. As a European (at least geographically!) that's heartwarming news for me. So here's some figures on EN World's geographical distribution.

As you can see, it skews primarily English-speaking heavily, which is expected for an English-language community.

United States3,376,839 users59.14%
United Kingdom (yay!)478,217 users8.38%
Canada411,179 users7.2%
Australia198,922 users3.48%
Brazil125,682 users2.2%
Germany109,248 users1.91%
Italy95,682 users1.68%
Netherlands74,139 users1.3%
Sweden51,479 users0.9%
Spain47,096 users0.82%

The list goes on for pages, but we're under 1% now.

The average EN World reader is male, American, between 25-34.
 

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I wonder whether some of us older players aren't being captured by WotC's numbers (although I don't know what WotC are doing to get these numbers). I know that I've gone back to earlier editions and don't really interact with the current game and community much anymore. I'm in three groups that are playing 2e (I'm DM in two of them), and friends are similarly running 2e games. Out of those groups, I'm the only one who bothers with online communities. So I think that some of this apparent attrition isn't necessarily down to people leaving the hobby behind (although some of it will be), but is also down to players' activities being in/moving into areas that can't be captured by these kinds of numbers. Our groups have never been so active - it's just all invisible to this kind of survey.

4.4 million 40+ gamers sounds like they might catching everyone just fine: 11% of a 40 million total population.
 

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I wonder whether some of us older players aren't being captured by WotC's numbers (although I don't know what WotC are doing to get these numbers). I know that I've gone back to earlier editions and don't really interact with the current game and community much anymore. I'm in three groups that are playing 2e (I'm DM in two of them), and friends are similarly running 2e games. Out of those groups, I'm the only one who bothers with online communities. So I think that some of this apparent attrition isn't necessarily down to people leaving the hobby behind (although some of it will be), but is also down to players' activities being in/moving into areas that can't be captured by these kinds of numbers. Our groups have never been so active - it's just all invisible to this kind of survey.

Not just that. I don't know how much the effect is - and as with all such unknowns, actually quantifying it would be hard, but it's worth remembering that online engagement is much more expected now. (Almost) anyone who started with 1e who uses the services which WotC's stats are drawn from has started doing so well after they began playing, and it was not part of the expected milieu to do so. Anyone who has started playing 5e is playing a game in which online resources are a normal part of play.

Still - my gut feel is that the new player base who came in over the last few years does dwarf all of us who have been around longer. And this is a very good thing :-)
 

4.4 million 40+ gamers sounds like they might catching everyone just fine: 11% of a 40 million total population.
Oh sure - like I say, their figures are bound to be representative. I'm not arguing with that. I'm addressing the question that Morrus raised about where the older gamers have gone. Some are still playing - just in arenas that won't necessarily be represented in these numbers.
 

roll20chart.png


Here's the chart of active games by percentage on Roll20. You can see the sudden change in methodology in Q2 2019, when "Uncategorized" jumps and Call of Cthulhu having a spike when its editions are combined.
But D&D still seems to be rising while other games (i.e. Pathfinder) decline. Which might not match the actual games being played—which increased as Roll20 grew in popularity—and is instead be skewed by 5e's increasing percentage of the market.

While I don't have a similar chart for Fantasy Grounds, looking at a few of their shared pie charts, Pathfinder went from 13% in 2016 to 9% in 2018 despite the total number of games growing from 39,499 in 2016 to 84,214 in 2019.
 


I think ENWorld and the community completely missed the actual news here.

"WOTC releases obviously false data, demonstrates they still have no idea how to effectively run their business"

That's the actual headline here.

WOTC sells books. Not directly to consumers, to retailers who sell to consumers. Consumers are not forced to self identify when purchasing books, consumers are not required to notify WOTC when they play in a game. One set of books could be one customer, they could be 12 customers, WOTC has no idea.

WOTC has no idea how old their customers are, what sex they are, or what age they are. In fact, the only thing WOTC knows is demographics of their public play program, which is going to be a vanishingly small percentage of their customers.

So I think the bigger news story here is that WOTC has definitively proven that they are incompetent at managing a business, and the community really should start working to have discussions with Hasbro if they want to see D&D survive. Because there's no way a company this misguided can possibly stay in business long term.
 

I think ENWorld and the community completely missed the actual news here.

"WOTC releases obviously false data, demonstrates they still have no idea how to effectively run their business"

That's the actual headline here.

WOTC sells books. Not directly to consumers, to retailers who sell to consumers. Consumers are not forced to self identify when purchasing books, consumers are not required to notify WOTC when they play in a game. One set of books could be one customer, they could be 12 customers, WOTC has no idea.

WOTC has no idea how old their customers are, what sex they are, or what age they are. In fact, the only thing WOTC knows is demographics of their public play program, which is going to be a vanishingly small percentage of their customers.

So I think the bigger news story here is that WOTC has definitively proven that they are incompetent at managing a business, and the community really should start working to have discussions with Hasbro if they want to see D&D survive. Because there's no way a company this misguided can possibly stay in business long term.

Ah yes. The parlous state of D&D in 2020. Clearly the result of incompetence.
 

I think ENWorld and the community completely missed the actual news here.

"WOTC releases obviously false data, demonstrates they still have no idea how to effectively run their business"

That's the actual headline here.

WOTC sells books. Not directly to consumers, to retailers who sell to consumers. Consumers are not forced to self identify when purchasing books, consumers are not required to notify WOTC when they play in a game. One set of books could be one customer, they could be 12 customers, WOTC has no idea.

WOTC has no idea how old their customers are, what sex they are, or what age they are. In fact, the only thing WOTC knows is demographics of their public play program, which is going to be a vanishingly small percentage of their customers.

So I think the bigger news story here is that WOTC has definitively proven that they are incompetent at managing a business, and the community really should start working to have discussions with Hasbro if they want to see D&D survive. Because there's no way a company this misguided can possibly stay in business long term.
I honestly can't tell if this is satire or not.
 

So, there's a discussion that keeps recurring every now and then about whether 5e has outsold the original golden age.

I think - given the sales data we have - that this rather suggests it has. I mean, this certainly feels like a golden age of d&d (and, probably started already as people branch out but definitely soon, a golden age of tabletop RPG).
Sales data, while useful and interesting, isn't the end-all-be-all of metrics. The US population has grown by about 100 million since 1980, for example, so you'd expect 5E to outsell 1E/BECMI in the US. The market is about 50% larger now.

To really compare the popularity of different editions, you'd probably want to adjust sales by market size (i.e. population).
 

Sales data, while useful and interesting, isn't the end-all-be-all of metrics. The US population has grown by about 100 million since 1980, for example, so you'd expect 5E to outsell 1E/BECMI in the US. The market is about 50% larger now.

To really compare the popularity of different editions, you'd probably want to adjust sales by market size (i.e. population).
Wow! So easy! So where’s your red box then?
 

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