D&D 5E Analyzing Bless

[Harzel]

Okay, let me see if I understand. You posted at the very beginning of this thread "So, it's a general consensus that bless is very powerful. I challenge that consensus." But you only posted part of your analysis? If you haven't done the analysis, then your statement above is premature. If you have done the analysis, why not post it immediately? I'm very confused by your method of argument.

But to be fair, he did say "challenge". Many people do use and/or interpret "challenge" to mean "disagree with", but that is not its only meaning. In the case of the OP, I think it is reasonable to take "challenge" to mean something more like "think it is not obviously correct and should be tested".

 

[Croesus]

But to be fair, he did say "challenge". Many people do use and/or interpret "challenge" to mean "disagree with", but that is not its only meaning. In the case of the OP, I think it is reasonable to take "challenge" to mean something more like "think it is not obviously correct and should be tested".

I agree. Based on my own response and that of others, if that was his intent, a number of us missed it.

 

[Satyrn]

I played a cleric to 10th level in a party of 4 and found it variable. We played it so that we only made the extra 1d4 when it was needed - as in a target AC or saving throw was just missed.

I just coded this up. Testing 10,000 times against AC 10 through 20, with a +0 attack bonus and a +5 attack bonus.

It turns out bless turns a miss into a hit 11% of the time. Period.

This was the output for the +5 attack bonus

AC 10: bless helped 1145.0 times (11.450000000000001%)
AC 11: bless helped 1150.0 times (11.5%)
AC 12: bless helped 1081.0 times (10.81%)
AC 13: bless helped 1154.0 times (11.540000000000001%)
AC 14: bless helped 1174.0 times (11.74%)
AC 15: bless helped 1085.0 times (10.85%)
AC 16: bless helped 1129.0 times (11.29%)
AC 17: bless helped 1126.0 times (11.26%)
AC 18: bless helped 1087.0 times (10.870000000000001%)
AC 19: bless helped 1117.0 times (11.17%)
AC 20: bless helped 1079.0 times (10.79%)

 

[Satyrn]

Okay - with a +10 attack bonus bless becomes less useful (because you're missing left to begin with)

AC 10: bless helped 0.0 times (0.0%)
AC 11: bless helped 0.0 times (0.0%)
AC 12: bless helped 482.0 times (4.82%)
AC 13: bless helped 882.0 times (8.82%)
AC 14: bless helped 1099.0 times (10.99%)
AC 15: bless helped 1138.0 times (11.379999999999999%)
AC 16: bless helped 1142.0 times (11.42%)
AC 17: bless helped 1100.0 times (11.0%)
AC 18: bless helped 1091.0 times (10.91%)
AC 19: bless helped 1170.0 times (11.700000000000001%)
AC 20: bless helped 1065.0 times (10.65%)

 

[Satyrn]

And here's a -2 attack bonus to model low level character using the -5/+10 feats (and I went to a higher AC for this so we can see the drop off point of "can't hit it all."

AC 10: bless helped 1138.0 times (11.379999999999999%)
AC 11: bless helped 1108.0 times (11.08%)
AC 12: bless helped 1125.0 times (11.25%)
AC 13: bless helped 1172.0 times (11.72%)
AC 14: bless helped 1084.0 times (10.84%)
AC 15: bless helped 1174.0 times (11.74%)
AC 16: bless helped 1160.0 times (11.600000000000001%)
AC 17: bless helped 1073.0 times (10.73%)
AC 18: bless helped 1112.0 times (11.12%)
AC 19: bless helped 1118.0 times (11.18%)
AC 20: bless helped 645.0 times (6.45%)
AC 21: bless helped 238.0 times (2.3800000000000003%)
AC 22: bless helped 0.0 times (0.0%)
AC 23: bless helped 0.0 times (0.0%)
AC 24: bless helped 0.0 times (0.0%)
AC 25: bless helped 0.0 times (0.0%)

 

[Satyrn]

So yeah, it looks to me like if you can hit without bless, it'll help you 11% of the time.

 

[Zardnaar]

We stopped using it mostly due to boredom and people have stopped taking the -5/+10 feats.

Its powerful enough, but we're running PoTA now and before that other prepublished adventures.

The cleric has prepped it. In a vacumn its ok then you realise how it works with sharpshooter+ archery style. +4.5 to hit with sharpshooter in a game where the average AC is 14.5 in the MM.

Its also pacing and resource management. By level 3 to 5 you can cast 1 spell every combat and bless is always reliable and always good and buffs its own concentration save.

 

[mellored]

Okay - with a +10 attack bonus bless becomes less useful (because you're missing left to begin with)

bounded accuracy means that is never really the case.

11% increase in damage ×3 people = 33% per round. So you need 3 rounds to match an attack. 4 to beat it. Seems right.

That said, everyone being the same class is unlikely. 11% of a fighter damage is a lot more than 11% of a clerics. If you have 3 strong attackers, your likely to make it up in 2 rounds.

Second, you can cast bless before battle. That can easily make up the difference in the first round.

and third, it scales. A level 1 spell rarely helps at level 20, but bless is on the short list that remains potent, like shield or command.

Is it overrated? Probably. But it's still good.

 

[Satyrn]

11% increase in damage ×3 people = 33% per round.

I don't think that's right.

It's 11% of all attacks affected by bless, whether its 3 people or 4 or more. Doesn't that mean it's still just an 11% increase in damage?

 

[bid]

So yeah, it looks to me like if you can hit without bless, it'll help you 11% of the time.

I find this hard to believe. There are 80 cases of 1d20 + 1d4, your answer must be a multiple of 1.25%.

Assuming you need 11+ to hit, bless will help in 10 cases:
- 10+1, 10+2, 10+3, 10+4
- 9+2, 9+3, 9+4
- 8+3, 8+4
- 7+4
That's 10/80 = 12.5%

There must be something wrong with your program or your RNG. I suggest you verify you got a flat probability by keeping of count for each of those 80 cases.