Isn't it 3 months, and it applies to supplements? Core rules follow different sales patterns.
The idea is that the core books will keep selling over the course of the edition and that the supplements will help push sales of the core books. Regardless, you still see the greatest number of sales immediately after release.
I do remember when 4e came out ... or rather before 4e came out. People were so eager to have the rules that they downloaded them illegally just so they could start playing!
More likely they just wanted to see what was behind the secrecy. I don't doubt, however, that it's selling well. I'm a non-adopter and I bought the core books. I know several other who bought them, checked them out, and decided not to adopt it for their games.
Sure, must have. I don't remember WotC saying "we want ALL to switch within 6 months!". Actually, I've never read any official statement at all as to what the rate of conversion they were hoping for. All I've read is that they're clobbering their projections, which could mean that they are actually doing BETTER than they expected with the conversions.
Ideally the majority would switch within the first few months. They announced it about a year ahead of time to give people warning, time to save, time to watch the information about the game that they release, and time to end their 3rd edition campaigns. That also gives them time to plant the seeds that the edition they've been promoting like crazy for the last eight years is somehow fundamentally flawed, despite the talent that worked on it, the number of players, and the eight years of continued support. It's all marketing. Hit the reset button and hope people jump onboard.
The company is telling people that it's selling like crazy. Of course they're telling people that. Even if the truth was that it was selling well below expectations, they would still be out there bragging about how well it's doing because if the perception was that it wasn't selling well, those who had been early adopters would stop buying stuff and go with what everybody else is playing.If you're a company selling a product, you never admit defeat until the point where everyone is cleaning out their desks and you're turning out the lights. But, as I said, I don't think 4E doing poorly, I suspect that it's hitting its target numbers. I just doubt that it's actually exceeding them, based on the quantity if negativity I've seen from the existing player base.
Honestly, I think that if the conversion rate isn't at about 65% by the end of the year, 4th edition will not be performing up to expectations. Will it hit that number? Has it actually hit that number and we just can't tell because we talk about this stuff on the internet? Check back in a few months. A lot of people are buying the core rules, so the real measure will be in RPGA participation, and the sales of supplements.
