D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[CommodoreKong]

I think qualitatively, the two movies have verrrrry different characteristics.

Detective Pikachu fits in the "Who Framed Roger Rabbit" category of movies that work despite premises that are kinda bat guano.

D&D fits in the category of well-trodden fantasy ground meets well-trodden heist movie ground.

My comparison has more to do with how well known the IPs are, budget and talk about a sequel based on box office. It's a good compasion point of what a big studio would consider successful enough to fast track a sequel (and the fact the DND movie probably wont hit that). There might be better examples but enough of the factors are close enough that I think it's a fairly good comparison.

I actually do think a live action Pokemon movie that was an adaption of maybe the first few gyms of the Pokemon game/anime probably would have done better than Detective Pikachu, properly playing off nostalgia.

 

[Jaeger]

From an industry magazine or website?

Industry pundits cite the exact same data and sources that are being used on this thread.

The movie got good reviews, and the people that went to see it seem to like it.

And unlike SzM2, the industry likes D&D - so it will be slower to jump on its box office short comings.

D&D's week 3 fall-off will tell the final tale. But right now it's not looking great.

Hit movies though all the other income streams are gravy. Here it's going to have to plug the hole left by HAT performance at the box office.

No one here can claim that income is going to be enough. There's likely going to be a 100 million hole to plug though. Could be even more.

Thread titles hit or flop. It's not a hit. And it's not gonna fall in that Grey zone where other income streams can drag it over the line.

Tgat basically leaves merch sales. Merch sales on flops don't tend to be that high.

And movies have always had "alternate income" streams since at least the early 80's.

Theatrical release. Then Rental and vhs/dvd sales. Then premium cable like HBO and Showtime. Then to Basic cable. Then to network tv.

And depending on the film; merch sales. Before then: Theatrical release, Tv runs, maybe merch.

So "alternate income streams" have been a thing for well over 40 years. Streaming/VOD is just a change of format.

And they have never invalidated looking at the box office take, and seeing whether or not the movie was a hit or a flop.

There is nothing wrong with waiting to see the week 3 fall off to see the likely result.

But using the exact same metrics and sources that industry pundits use to see that the D&D movie is not doing so hot, is hardly a controversial position to take either.

 

[Undrave]

I actually do think a live action Pokemon movie that was an adaption of maybe the first few gyms of the Pokemon game/anime probably would have done better than Detective Pikachu, properly playing off nostalgia.

IMO, trying to copy the game, or the anime, is a terrible idea for a movie.

MAYBE you could pull off a trainer's journey IF you structure it like a sports biopic movie.

Also, Pokémon is WAY out of DnD's league in term of being well known.

 

[Undrave]

To the point the horn isn't named in the movie.

The trailers have to have come really early in the production cycle, because Kira and talk of her is like 30 minute of this film's run time and links into Holga's story so hard both literally and thematically, I have a hard time thinking she was a late edition. I will say, her and Forge's connection might be a late edition, for reasons I'd go into in the spoiler thread.

I just had an awful thought… is this a RACE thing? Is it like Finn not being on Chinese Star Wars posters? Were they afraid of turning off a certain kind of people if they showed Chris Pine with a mixed-race kid?! Is that what happened?

 

[bedir than]

Industry pundits cite the exact same data and sources that are being used on this thread.

Could you point me to a single one that has made this claim since March 31st? Just one.

Because I can and have linked a half-dozen industry people who think that D&D is a surprising success.

 

[Vaalingrade]

I just had an awful thought… is this a RACE thing? Is it like Finn not being on Chinese Star Wars posters? Were they afraid of turning off a certain kind of people if they showed Chris Pine with a mixed-race kid?! Is that what happened?

I mean if the black paladin didn't summon those shrieking vrocks, the Kira probably would have flown under their radar as long as they didn't show her mother or toddler actor. Not like she was innocently eating Cheerios or something.

 

[Zardnaar]

Could you point me to a single one that has made this claim since March 31st? Just one.

Because I can and have linked a half-dozen industry people who think that D&D is a surprising success.

And when are those links from? Are they from before last weekend? Are you using dated data? I've Google for more up to date stuff, found lots of positive stuff from the launch or just before, 2 predicting a flop before it was released of which 1 source was unreliable the other was looking at what I am its projected trajectory vs its budget.

The drop off was more than 18.6% which was what the movie needed every week to be in the ballpark to turn a profit on its theatrical release. Hollywood loves the movie no one seem to hate it box office is indifferent at best.

 

[Jaeger]

Could you point me to a single one that has made this claim since March 31st? Just one.

Because I can and have linked a half-dozen industry people who think that D&D is a surprising success.

Ah yes - the ubiquitous 'Industry Puff Piece".

Here's a really good example how they work:

5 Reasons Dungeons & Dragons’ Box Office Is So Big (& Crushed The Original)

5 Reasons Dungeons & Dragons’ Box Office Is So Big (& Crushed The Original)

It didn't take much to beat the original.

screenrant.com

By the second paragraph it is already parroting the party line about how the D&D movie met 'projections', so that means it's "doing well..."

"... Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves earned $37.2 million in its opening week box office, blowing past the $7.2 million opening of the 2000 Dungeons & Dragons movie. In the week before its release, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was projected to earn 30-40 million, so its $37.2 million actual opening is at the upper end of that projection. Here's why it performed so well and soared past the previous Dungeons & Dragons. ..."

In virtually every positive article they cite the opening weekend returns, compare them to the 'projections', and then pronounce "success" because projections were met.

And most articles leave it at that.

But even this puff piece acknowledges reality, even though it buries it at the end of the article:

1 Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Has a Way Bigger Budget:
"...Granted, a bigger budget means it needs a bigger box office to be profitable. The 2000 Dungeons & Dragons didn't break even on its $45 million budget, so obviously it wasn't profitable either, but following the break-even rule of thumb by multiplying Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves' $150 million budget by 2.5 to account for marketing and other expenses, it needs $450 million to make a profit. With a $70.2 million opening weekend, that seems like a steep hill, even with excellent reviews and solid word of mouth. A successful home/streaming release could help it turn an eventual profit, but box office alone may not be enough. ..."

So you can see how the author talks about how the movie "performed so well" by citing its opening Projections at the beginning of the article, yet is still forced to acknowledge the reality that D&D will have a hard time breaking even towards the end because doing well in comparison to opening projections, vs. actually having to recoup one's costs, are two very different things!

The articles then goes on to engage in some spectacular doublespeak right at the end:

"Even if it struggles to turn a profit, the fact that it earned such favorable reviews and exceeded opening weekend expectations means its soft opening at the box office shouldn't be seen as an indictment of the movie's quality, but an unfortunate consequence of a still-shaky theatrical market."

You catch that too?

I stand in awe in the presence of such euphemistic artistry.

 

[Vaalingrade]

Mamba, this is what I was talking about if you were still wondering.

 

[MwaO]

Can we address that the ads completely lie about the entire motivation of the movie?

I don't think it is so much that it lied about the motivation of the movie so much so that it is more that the advertising isn't focused on "here's a party, sketch out some short details, here's the macguffin, go, fun movie for everyone" but rather "we have so many easter eggs that we can throwaway a mimic surprising the party in an ad that we don't even need it in the film" Ditto for the Super Bowl ad: "Look at all these super cuts"

You can lie about the motivation of a movie or mislead. What you don't want to do is suggest that it is the kind of movie similar to Star Wars IX(too much, too fast, not enjoyable) without it actually being a Star War and if it is actually a really fun movie.