Do you think the ___ Orb line of spells are too powerful?

[gnfnrf]

Multiple? Nearly every?

There is a difference between the situation allowing for it and it being a optimal decision for that situation.

Right. And that is what the oodles of math I did is for. Figuring out which spell is optimal, given the situation.

Situations where Orbs are often better:

...

Darkness, Obscuring Mist, or other area concealment spells prevent LOS to good targeting locations. Or even casting spells outdoors at night.

...

You don't need line of sight to the target point for a fireball or lightning bolt, just line of effect.

In fact, area of effect spells are spectacularly better in these circumstances, because concealment is completely screwing over your hopes of hitting with an orb.

Sure, one could cast Fireball at a Dragon or cast it so that it only hits two enemies, but even though the opportunity exists, it is not necessarily a good choice to do so.

I agree, and my analysis agrees. Of the 13 encounters with a single foe, 12 favor the orb spells (the remaining one is against a swarm). For battles against two foes, 8 favor the orb, 3 the evocation, and 4 are unclear.

The reason that my analysis showed evocations to be more useful overall is because many encounters in the DWP are against more than two foes. If you experience games in which this is not the case, your results will be different. (This is why I chose DWP for encounters, because first party published adventures are as close to a 'standard' as we are likely to get.)

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gnfnrf

 

[KarinsDad]

You don't need line of sight to the target point for a fireball or lightning bolt, just line of effect.

True. But, it depends on the DM. Some DMs do not allow a caster to just pick the optimal point of origin grid intersection on the board where his PC cannot see. Instead, they ask for range/direction and do not allow the player to count it out. So, it depends on the DM.

I agree, and my analysis agrees. Of the 13 encounters with a single foe, 12 favor the orb spells (the remaining one is against a swarm). For battles against two foes, 8 favor the orb, 3 the evocation, and 4 are unclear.

The reason that my analysis showed evocations to be more useful overall is because many encounters in the DWP are against more than two foes. If you experience games in which this is not the case, your results will be different. (This is why I chose DWP for encounters, because first party published adventures are as close to a 'standard' as we are likely to get.)

How did you handle cramped quarters in that module? I suspect that you didn't because you compared both attacks against each set of opponents.

How did you handle hostages or civilains in the way in that module?

How did you handle opponents in that module that surround the PCs and ambush them?

How did you handle opponents that rush into the PCs and melee with them right away?

The point is that for an analysis of which spell when both are applicable, your analysis is good.

It is not good for many common scenarios that you did not take into account. Cramped quarters alone should account for 25% of scenarios where AoE spells are not usable at all. It's a major weakness of AoE spells that you analysis could not take into account.

Based on your limitations, I think you did a great job. I just think it is misleading data. It handles a subset of encounter scenarios, not a superset.