D&D (2024) Fireball/Lightning Bolt vs Chromatic Orb?

[CreamCloud0]

given '24 chromatic orb seems to be derived just as much from '14 chaos bolt as '14 chromatic orb, how does '14 CB stack up against '24 CO too?

 

[ezo]

In your calculations, when chromatic orb is cast at level 6, are you assuming there’s always 7 potential targets it can hit when calculating its average targets hit?

Because a chromatic orb could be cast at level 6 against 4 or 5 targets. That would presumably decrease its average targets?

Yes, each spell-level for CO assumes there is a enough targets for maximum bounces.

However, if you have fewer targets, you can use the spell-level for the number of targets, and realize the expected damage would be slightly higher due to the greater chance for a bounce, but it gets you more or less in the ballpark.

For example:

CO 6th-level @ 80% is 3.14 targets for 96.23 damage. Divide to get the damage / target (30.6). Then just look at the number of targets, say 4, and look up the expected targets for a CO of THAT spell level: 2.39 (4th-level @ 80%). Multiply the new expected targets (2.39) by the calculated damage / target (30.6) for an expected damage of 73.05.

So, if you used a CO 6th-level @ 80% but only 4 targets, your damage will be about 73 (or a bit more) instead of the 96ish maximum if you had 7 targets available.

It is far from perfect, but it is a quickish way to compare a higher level CO with fewer targets.

What would his chance to hit with chromatic orb have been? I’m betting it would have likely came out worse.

Quickling has AC 16. But causes disadvantage when trying to hit it. I think fireball was probably the better bet there. Even with their evasion. The quicklings all passing their dex saves vs fireball that many times was extremely unlikely.

Well, the fireball from the necklace has save DC 15. With the +6 DEX mod, the quicklings needed a 9 or better (60% chance success). IIRC the fireballs targeted 4, 4, and 3 quicklings. Expected "hits" would be 1.6, 1.6, and 1.2. Theoretically, the three fireballs should have taken out 4 quicklings--1 or 2, 2 or 1, and then 1.

Admittedly, I rolled fairly lucky since one time all four quicklings made their save for 0 damage... However, even half-damage on a failed save is enough to kill them at only 10 hp. Two fireballs managed to kill 1 quickling each, the last none, and he stopped doing it.

But, let's look at the numbers for CO at 3rd-level (as fireball) with +7 attack (based on DC 15 save) vs. AC 16. That attack needs 9 or better (also 60% oddly enough), but with disadvantage, so just a 36% attack success. So, a single casting of CO would only have roughly a 1/3 chance to hit (damage would be sufficient to kill, though), and with three castings you would get 1, maybe 1.5 quicklings.

So, CO would actually be worse in that sense (you are correct), however avoids the tank "nuking" himself in the process... Also, if someone buffed his attacks via bless or whatever, CO would improve of course. I don't rely on that, personally, but it is a viable consideration.

in use it's hitting more like 85% or higher.

I believe that in real use if you're maximumizng options like granting advantage, etc. or targeting lower AC targets often (like ogres).

With fire resistance being fairly common and friendly fire an issue I'm seeing CO outperforming fireball.

Well, you mention seeking spell, and I can throw in transmuted spell (which my own Sorcerer uses for his "fireballs" ).

So, in such situations, I don't view fire resistance as an issue if you are granted advantage.

I'm wondering if anyone else is seeing something similar. I've been running up to 3 games a week level 1-12.

True. For myself I haven't but I am not using 2024 rules at all and I won't ever use them--I'd stop playing D&D first.

Anyway, I think CO can certainly be useful, and if you "maximize" for it even more so (like anything you maximize for...). Overall, in general terms of pure damage potential I think FB and CL yield better results and I HAVE seein those used in abundance very successfully...

 

[ezo]

given '24 chromatic orb seems to be derived just as much from '14 chaos bolt as '14 chromatic orb, how does '14 CB stack up against '24 CO too?

LOL I'll leave those calculations to someone else.

Off-hand, I would say '14 CB will do much worse due to these issues:

1. You only ever get 2d8, and it only bounces on doubles, so 12.5% chance. At base 3d8, CO at 1st-level has over a 34% bounce chance, nearly tripled the '14 CB.
2. While '14 CB can potentially bounce and infinite number of times, at only 12.5% it is very unlikely to even get three targets, let alone even more.
3. Damage for '14 CB is inferior. 2d8+1d6 vs. 3d8. Once upcasted adds d6s, the other adds more d8s.
4. CO allows you to choose your damage type when cast, avoiding resistance if known, as where '14 CB has random, and if it bounces, you are stuck with the roll of the double d8s.

Eventually, there will be an updated CB for 2024 as well...

 

[Steampunkette]

Fireballing the party without consent more than once would get you booted from the game. No pvp or jerks session 0. I've seen people get fairly upset over deliberate friendly fire fireballs.

Yes they fireball the party occasionally but they ask first.

Hence why I'm saying CO is performing well.

The ideal situation for a fireball is less common than ideal CO.

85% hit chance is a bonus action. Or 1 Sorcery point. Using ENworlds 65%. It's a trivial cost.

Most of the rest it's taking advantage of common situations. Eg bless, faerie fire, blindness, paralysis. Twin spells cheaper so seeing get used more on those type of spells vs twinned haste.

"Without Consent" is doing a lot of heavy lifting, here, to try and balance the mathematical functions of Fireball vs Chromatic Orb on a matter of politeness.

Anyway. Even at 85%, that's still a 15% chance of completely wasting the spell slot on each roll. Which is a cumulative fail chance of around 62% over the course of 6 rolls. (0.85*0.85*0.85*0.85*0.85*0.85) = 37.7

(These are your odds of not rolling a 3 or less across 6 rolls)

You have a better than 50% chance of getting 3 hits out of it. After that your chances are under 50/50 of getting the next one to land in the sequence, and ending the sequence on a failure.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, you manage to hit 3 targets with your 9d8 level 6 Chromatic Orb. That's 122 total, on average. 40.5 to each target.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, you throw a 6th level Fireball and -everyone- succeeds their save. You still deal 116 damage, total across 6 targets. (((11*3.5)*6)*0.5). Even if -everyone- saves against the Fireball and it deals half damage to each of the 6 targets you still deal about the same damage as if the Chromatic Orb misses a coin toss by enemy 4. This is the FAIL STATE of the Fireball. This is the worst the Fireball can do. And this is the point where Chromatic Orb is at 50/50 efficacy.

If half of them succeed their save, instead of all, you're instead looking at 173 damage total. 29.5 damage each. (This is the Fireball a5 50/50 efficacy)

In the event that a given instance of Chromatic Orb hits the 4th target, which is an 85% chance on the roll itself and a cumulative 47% chance, it'll dish out 162 damage. 11 less than if 3/6 targets fail their Dex save.

In the best case scenario for both, where every hit of Chromatic Orb lands and everyone fails their Dex save against Fireball, that 243 for Chromatic Orb and 231 for Fireball.

Chromatic Orb comes out 12 points better.

And that's not getting into situations where there are 7, 8, or 9 targets. In the BEST case scenario for Chromatic Orb to show it's damage output, where Fireball can't show off it's higher potential target count, it's a 12 point difference.

And if you roll a 1, 2, or 3 on the first roll... it does nothing and your entire turn is wasted.

I'd much prefer the Fireball on target counts of 4 or higher.

 

[Zardnaar]

"Without Consent" is doing a lot of heavy lifting, here, to try and balance the mathematical functions of Fireball vs Chromatic Orb on a matter of politeness.

Anyway. Even at 85%, that's still a 15% chance of completely wasting the spell slot on each roll. Which is a cumulative fail chance of around 62% over the course of 6 rolls. (0.85*0.85*0.85*0.85*0.85*0.85) = 37.7

(These are your odds of not rolling a 3 or less across 6 rolls)

You have a better than 50% chance of getting 3 hits out of it. After that your chances are under 50/50 of getting the next one to land in the sequence, and ending the sequence on a failure.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, you manage to hit 3 targets with your 9d8 level 6 Chromatic Orb. That's 122 total, on average. 40.5 to each target.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, you throw a 6th level Fireball and -everyone- succeeds their save. You still deal 116 damage, total across 6 targets. (((11*3.5)*6)*0.5). Even if -everyone- saves against the Fireball and it deals half damage to each of the 6 targets you still deal about the same damage as if the Chromatic Orb misses a coin toss by enemy 4. This is the FAIL STATE of the Fireball. This is the worst the Fireball can do. And this is the point where Chromatic Orb is at 50/50 efficacy.

If half of them succeed their save, instead of all, you're instead looking at 173 damage total. 29.5 damage each. (This is the Fireball a5 50/50 efficacy)

In the event that a given instance of Chromatic Orb hits the 4th target, which is an 85% chance on the roll itself and a cumulative 47% chance, it'll dish out 162 damage. 11 less than if 3/6 targets fail their Dex save.

In the best case scenario for both, where every hit of Chromatic Orb lands and everyone fails their Dex save against Fireball, that 243 for Chromatic Orb and 231 for Fireball.

Chromatic Orb comes out 12 points better.

And that's not getting into situations where there are 7, 8, or 9 targets. In the BEST case scenario for Chromatic Orb to show it's damage output, where Fireball can't show off it's higher potential target count, it's a 12 point difference.

And if you roll a 1, 2, or 3 on the first roll... it does nothing and your entire turn is wasted.

I'd much prefer the Fireball on target counts of 4 or higher.

Wwll as I said our table has a no pvp rule. That also includes stealing from other PCs. Basically the effected players have to request you nuke them.

We had a whiff the other day with CO but also a 12 damage upcast scorching ray. Fireball would have been similar.

We've had sone decent FBs and 1 magnificent one. I've seen more magnificent COs go off due to combos either hold spells.

Big thing is a lack of large groups in adventures. The rare few it's not needed eg a few hobgoblins in a level 9 adventure. And I've often added a couple of extra mooks.

 

[Steampunkette]

Wwll as I said our table has a no pvp rule. That also includes stealing from other PCs. Basically the effected players have to request you nuke them.

Your table is your problem, not mine. And even then?

1 Sorcery point. Problem Solved. A more plentiful resource than Innate Sorcery, too.

I'd still prefer to use Fireball on 4+ targets with a half damage rider than throw Chromatic Orb.

And if there are more than 6 targets within the Fireball Formation it's an outright no-brainer.

 

[Will Brandiman]

Just played a game where one of the party was a halfling wild magic sorcerer who used CO as his main offensive spell in any big fights. He would use Tides of Chaos to give himself advantage on the attack roll. Combined with his halfling's Luck trait, he was able to hit more often than not with the initial attack. If he failed to roll a double on the damage dice he would use Empowered Spell to reroll 3 of the damage dice. This meant it bounced more often than not. He was then able to use his Lucky origin feat to give himself advantage on that attack.

Overall it was a very effective spell* and, as we were only 3rd level, probably the best offensive option for dealing with multiple foes.

*made more effective by the player's uncanny luck in rolling nat 20's on the attack rolls, making the spell do double damage and also increasing the chances of it bouncing.

 

[Horwath]

this is comparing 1st and 3rd level spells.

spells that are only worth casting at their default level.

still do not know which spell scales worse, CO or fireball?

3d8 is good spell damage at 1st level for a 1st level spell slot.

8d6 is good spell damage at 5th level for a 3rd level spell slot


when to upcast CO?

if you are sorcerer with elven accuracy and you can target damage vulnerability.
if you are diviner wizard and you have a "20" pre-rolled and you can target damage vulnerability.


when to upcast fireball?
NEVER!


how damage spells should scale?
3 dice for single target per spell level, 2 dice for "decent" AoE effect.

 

[ezo]

Just played a game where one of the party was a halfling wild magic sorcerer who used CO as his main offensive spell in any big fights. He would use Tides of Chaos to give himself advantage on the attack roll. Combined with his halfling's Luck trait, he was able to hit more often than not with the initial attack. If he failed to roll a double on the damage dice he would use Empowered Spell to reroll 3 of the damage dice. This meant it bounced more often than not. He was then able to use his Lucky origin feat to give himself advantage on that attack.

Overall it was a very effective spell* and, as we were only 3rd level, probably the best offensive option for dealing with multiple foes.

*made more effective by the player's uncanny luck in rolling nat 20's on the attack rolls, making the spell do double damage and also increasing the chances of it bouncing.

So, it's really good if...

You do this
You to that
You have something
You blah blah blah.

I'm glad it works well for you, but again this is a Sorcerer built option, with Luck, and Tides of Chaos, and Empowered Spell.

If you need that much to make a spell a good option, odds are under "normal circumstances" it isn't a great spell.

 

[Will Brandiman]

So, it's really good if...

You do this
You to that
You have something
You blah blah blah.

I'm glad it works well for you, but again this is a Sorcerer built option, with Luck, and Tides of Chaos, and Empowered Spell.

If you need that much to make a spell a good option, odds are under "normal circumstances" it isn't a great spell.

I think it's a decent option without any of the above. With that specific build it became an exceptional option.