Hiya!
I agree that there is a series of decisions a DM makes that leads to a TPK. I do not see this as wrong or a bad thing.
I don't think that any single one of them is bad, really, but I generally do see a TPK as a bad thing. Sure, there may be examples that folks can provide where a TPK was fun and rewarding, and perhaps even furthered the story. This is why I'm not saying that a TPK should absolutely never happen. I question it as advice given to a DM who asks how to handle a situation where his players have foolishly gone up against an encounter that is too tough for them.
The DM rolls a very difficult encounter. Check (NOTE: I removed "picks", because I don't do that; I have encounter chances and table for a reason...to help me remain neutral and unconcerned about the outcome).
Who made the list that you rolled from? Who placed the area that list pertains to?
Setting aside the whole "neutral DM" aspect of the discussion, the DM has still made several choices in regards to this. So even if ultimately, a die is used to randomize the encounter....the die is randomizing from details chosen by the DM.
Even if it's a list in a published game book, the DM has chosen that list. And this is fine....I am not saying this is a bad thing, or a bad way to handle it....but the DM has made choices about these things. He is not absolved of responsibility for them.
The DM doesn't give ample warning of a potentially deadly (TPK) encounter. Not my job to keep the PC's safe. My job is to be the cold, cruel and uncaring 'world'. It doesn't care if you are only 3rd level...if there is a chance of meeting, however slim, a huge, ancient red dragon in the Dragon Hills, and the dice come up 01. Not my problem. Sorry, PC's. Death is highly likely unless they take immediate and successful 'evasive/pre-emptive' measures (like jump behind whatever is closes...rock, tree, horse, etc). I would also point out I do use the "Monster Reaction Table" (mine, I think I based it off of BECMI or 1e...honestly can't remember; it includes reasons for the monsters appearance...traveling, hunting, searching for something, fleeing, wandering, etc). So it is entirely possible to have a potential TPK turned instantly into a "small break for the PC's as they wash their loincloths in a creek" after a huge, ancient red dragon flies overhead on it's way to a nearby lake to get a drink of water).
This is not about keeping the PCs safe. It's about letting them know that the danger may be too great. For example, naming the hills the Giant Hills and having the PCs hear of giant attacks, and maybe speaking to a veteran NPC missing an arm who tells them if they ever see a giant, they should run. Those are the kinds of things I am talking about. Now, those seem to be reasonable warning signs. However, since this is a game, the players may actually see things like that as a dare. This is why I say that the DM is responsible to make sure things are clear....because different players may pick up on different cues, and what's an "obvious warning" to one player is seen differently by another.
So I have to disagree that this is not your job. The DM has to try and portray the world to the players so that they can make informed decisions. It's not about keeping them safe....it's about letting them make as informed a decision as possible.
The DM does not allow for other ways of dealing...other than combat. Check/agree. This would fall into the "being a Richard" more than "setting up for TPK 'jus cause'.
Glad we agree here!
The DM does nothing to mitigate the deadliness of the encounter. Check. Again...not my job to make the PC's lives 'safe'. Sometimes dice just have it in for PC's...just like sometimes the PC's dice have it in for a monster, or a challengeing skill situation, or an NPC. I don't "fudge" the DC's to make it impossible/harder for them to succeed...why should I do it the other way? All that does is lead to the Players getting used to "the DM won't let us die...not a TPK anyway..."; and then when a TPK does happen, they are shocked/surprised and pissed off because NOW it's "unfair". Best to nip that little "the DM will save us" subconscious (or conscious) idea right from the get go.
In this case, I mean more about the decisions of monsters/enemy NPCs. When the tide of the combat seems to turn against the PCs, the DM is able to ease off a bit....there's no reason that he has to continue to run the bad guys as perfectly efficient killing machines who will not take a moment to gloat, or waste an action in some other way. There can be plenty of story related reasons for this. Yes, a lot of this depends on the reason for the combat and the creatures involved, but my point is that this is another decision point where the DM has the ability to influence the likelihood of a TPK.
The DM has the monsters pursue PC's who try to flee. Check. Again, I have a "monster reaction" and "morale" tables I use to help in deciding. Pretty sure it's from 1e and/or Hackmaster 4th. Basically, there's a Percentage Chance a monster will 'succeed'. It keeps fighting if it succeeds. If it fails, it's reaction is based on by how much it failed. Modifiers to Morale are done before the roll. The more it fails, the more likely it will surrender or flee...the less it fails, the more likely it is to disengage or try and do a fighting withdrawl. If the PC's press the attack, well, yeah...it keeps fighting. Obviously.
What about when PCs flee? That's what I was taking about. Again, I think it depends on the context of the fight, and the enemy motivation for the combat, but in most instances it would be pretty easy to justify letting PCs run away. Or if it's not, then the pursuit can be resolved with skills rather than continuing the combat, or the chase mechanics in teh DMG (weak as they may be) can be used to mitigate the results.
The DM has the monsters kill any down but living PCs. Check. This depends on far too many factors. Intelligent ones may "coup de grais" because they know better. Stupid ones...maybe yes, maybe no. I base this chance on why the creature was encountered in the first place (if it's hunting...it's hungry; it will probably start eating right away, or try to drag off the downed PC...this could result in death). If a DM has every monster resort to "killing a downed opponent" regardless of situation, intelligence, alignment, etc...then the DM is being more "Richard'ish" than Neutral.
"Far too many factors" is what I am talking about. Any of those factors may allow the DM an opportunity to mitigate the deadliness of the encounter. The Bullette drags off the downed PC to eat rather than chase the other fleeing PCs, etc.
Even once all PCs are down....unless they've all failed 3 death saves, I don't see this as a TPK. Once the last goes down, I'd stop combat and then narrate what happens. They could be taken prisoner or wake up with their gear stolen or any other option we can come up with.
I think the "up side" to a TPK...if you can even call a TPK that...is reinforcing the Players suspension of disbelief and their believably of the campaign itself. I mean, look at serial TV shows. Are they entertaining? Yeah, could be (face it, most TV sucks). But why do shows like Babylon 5 (old sci-fi show), Game of Thrones, and various Netflix/HBO shows have such high regards and followings? Because the viewers BELIEVE that at any time, if a character gets into a situation where they are likely to die...they WILL LIKELY DIE. I mean, in the first season, when one of the "obviously main characters" (Lord Stark) is captured, beaten, etc, and about to be killed... (1) In a more "new skool" style campaign, he wouldn't die. Something would miraculously happen (Deus Ex Machina) to stop or otherwise postpone the execution...giving the "PC" another opportunity to escape. ...-or-... (2) In a more "old skool" (like my games), he dies. That's it. Dead. Head, off. The "PC" doesn't escape. His execution isn't postponed by a freak attack by some unknown army at the gates, or some monster swooping down, or a guard rebellion, or anything. Dead. Sorry. Grab the dice and roll up a new 1st level PC.
People like GoT for a lot of reasons...one of which is because at any time, any 'major' character can be killed or severely screwed over. The Red Wedding episode? TPK. It didn't stop the campaign. It changed it. The TPK may have been "unfortunate" to the PC's involved, sure...but better to TPK and continue the story, adding depth to the campaign history and giving both the Players and the DM a very cool and powerful 'hook' for backgrounds, goals, hatreds, rivalries, etc...then to "just capture them instead". At least in my not so humble opinion. Then again -->[self]<-- = "Killer DM", remember?
I think it really boils down to how much "realism/simulation" versus how much "serialisation/narrativist" a DM and the Players are. Obviously I fall into the first style. You may fall into more of the second, or likely some combination. I can see the benefit to avoiding TPK's in that it makes the game 'lighter' and easier to just play and have fun rolling dice, seeing what unfolds, and role-playing. But I just find more benefits to letting the dice help tell the story...even if that story ends in tragedy.
^_^
Paul L. Ming
People also like stories where there is definitely no chance that the main character will die. And such stories are not inherently weaker.
(Also, Robb Stark was clearly an NPC, so no the RW was not a TPK

)
Having said that, I agree, I prefer that my game has the risk of PC death. There have been two from our current group. Stuff happens and sometimes there are bad results. But I don't think that's the same as going for a full on TPK. They don't happen by accident, despite the examples provided. A TPK has to have DM approval.
And that's fine if that's the game you're playing and that your players expect.....but as general advice? I think it's probably not a good idea.