D&D 5E (2024) The Great Wizard Extinction.

[Stalker0]

2e. The new damage cap became 10 dice, capping out in damage when the wizard reaches 10th level. Still likely to kill anything it is thrown against as 10-60 (35 average) damage is still a lot of damage when targets typically have a handful of d8s for hit points, no constitution bonuses added for monsters. For instance, an ogre in 2e has 4d8+1 hit points, that’s an average of 19 hit points, a 6th level caster would be likely to wipe out an ogre and his buddies with a single fireball dealing 6-36 (21 average) damage.

3e. This edition kept the 10 dice damage cap but now, since monsters all had the 6 ability scores as well, they could add in their constitution bonuses to their hit points. Now an ogre has 4d8+11 hit points (a 15 constitution and the toughness feat for a total of +11 hit points) so that their average hit points are increased to 29. Meaning that the wizard now needs to be level 9 before they can be confident that the ogre is destroyed by his 9d6 (9-54, 31.5 average) fireball. 9th level means that the DC for his fireball spell is likely going to be 17 (with an 18 intelligence) so the ogre with a +0 reflex saving throw is likely going to fail and take the full brunt of the fireball.

Since this is becoming a crux of some of this debate, we want to dig a bit more in the details.

2e. Alright if the fireball is 6d6, there is a 72.06% chance you will do enough damage to one-shot them, IF, they fail the saving throw.
If they pass the save: Its 0%.

I have no idea what 2e saving throws looked like for an ogre. But let me ballpark it at 20% chance to pass (similar to the 3e numbers quoted).

So the real chance to one shot is: .7206 * .80 = 0.57648 = 57.65% chance. Aka yes a 6th level caster could scorch those ogres in a single fireball, but its close to a coin flip that it may take 2.

3e: Our goal is to get to similar chance to our 2e numbers (aka 57.65% to one shot with a fireball).

Since we are still using that same 80% success rate, we need ~72.06% to oneshot the ogre. That is found at 9d6 (horray) at 71.81%.

So total chance to one-shot with that fireball is 57.48%.



Ok, these numbers agree with the quoted post. Its 6th level in 2e vs 9th level in 3e to get a ~57% chance to one-shot an ogre with a fireball)

 

[UngeheuerLich]

Less creatures more powerful is more modern thing not just 3.X.

Look through 5E adventures. You rarely see 20 mooks let alone 80. Its mostly less than 2 monsters per PC with a rare 20 CR 1/2 popping up occasionally at level 5 or so.

In 3e it was very rare to see more than two monsters at once.

In 5e I have seen a fair share of more than a few low CR monsters. Because they work.

I have just sent 16 slightly improved guards (CR 1/2) at my 5 level 4 PCs. They really wished they had fireball available.

 

[Zardnaar]

In 3e it was very rare to see more than two monsters at once.

In 5e I have seen a fair share of more than a few low CR monsters. Because they work.

I have just sent 16 slightly improved guards (CR 1/2) at my 5 level 4 PCs. They really wished they had fireball available.

I guess you haven't read many 3.x adventures. I own hundreds of them.

You willing to die on that hill about rare to see more than 1 critter? Sounds like an anecdote to me.

 

[cbwjm]

Since this is becoming a crux of some of this debate, we want to dig a bit more in the details.

2e. Alright if the fireball is 6d6, there is a 72.06% chance you will do enough damage to one-shot them, IF, they fail the saving throw.
If they pass the save: Its 0%.

I have no idea what 2e saving throws looked like for an ogre. But let me ballpark it at 20% chance to pass (similar to the 3e numbers quoted).

So the real chance to one shot is: .7206 * .80 = 0.57648 = 57.65% chance. Aka yes a 6th level caster could scorch those ogres in a single fireball, but its close to a coin flip that it may take 2.

3e: Our goal is to get to similar chance to our 2e numbers (aka 57.65% to one shot with a fireball).

Since we are still using that same 80% success rate, we need ~72.06% to oneshot the ogre. That is found at 9d6 (horray) at 71.81%.

So total chance to one-shot with that fireball is 57.48%.



Ok, these numbers agree with the quoted post. Its 6th level in 2e vs 9th level in 3e to get a ~57% chance to one-shot an ogre with a fireball)

It's been a while since I wrote the fireball analysis (and I didn't have the math know-how to get the exact odds), but I think the ogre in 2e had a saving throw of 16 which would make it a 25% chance to save, still close to the final result but a little closer to that coin flip.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

I guess you haven't read many 3.x adventures. I own hundreds of them.

I have read a lot of the official adventures. Not hundreds.

Actually, I don't care. What I care about is that usong low level troups work well. They did not in 3.5

You willing to die on that hill about rare to see more than 1 critter?

Read again. I said a two...

Sounds like an anecdote to me.

Of course. Your stories are also anecdotes.

What I did was telling you how I came to my conclusion. I backed it up with math.

Low level foes work in 5e, not in 3e. Thus area damage spells work well in 5e games I play. Parts of them are official adventures (but not at very high level). At level 5, when fireball is first available, they are highly useful (you said it right: dead is the best status effect), but not against single foes.
The two ogres survived, when the group of orcs around them perished.

In 3e, fireball was not great at the level you get it. 5d6 damage was rather meh at that level. Not because the damage was lower, but the creatures killed were no threat to begin with anymore or other spells were just more effective.

And again: if your experience differed, great. But also an anecdote.

 

[Zardnaar]

I have read a lot of the official adventures. Not hundreds.

Actually, I don't care. What I care about is that usong low level troups work well. They did not in 3.5

Read again. I said a two...

Of course. Your stories are also anecdotes.

What I did was telling you how I came to my conclusion. I backed it up with math.

Low level foes work in 5e, not in 3e. Thus area damage spells work well in 5e games I play. Parts of them are official adventures (but not at very high level). At level 5, when fireball is first available, they are highly useful (you said it right: dead is the best status effect), but not against single foes.
The two ogres survived, when the group of orcs around them perished.

In 3e, fireball was not great at the level you get it. 5d6 damage was rather meh at that level. Not because the damage was lower, but the creatures killed were no threat to begin with anymore or other spells were just more effective.

And again: if your experience differed, great. But also an anecdote.

The math supports 3.5 fireball being better.

Your argued is subjective. Control spells wreck house in 5E as well. At a lot of levels the odds of flunking them are similar to 3.5.

Im not realky gonna use fireball much in 5E vs control spelks even if playing optimally.

Most peopke are casuals. They're not going to play optimally. 3.6 fireball is better then is it not?

Powergamers shouldn't use fireball either edition or at least not that often. 3.5 hit points are about half 5E. The worst 3E fireball is better than 5E one mathematically speaking?

5E ones not really worth upcasting. 3.5 one mean metanagic or free metamagic. 5th level slot we are looking at 15d6 damage vs 10d6 in an edition with half the hit points.

That's a 30d6 fireball comparatively, 25-28 if you want to start nitpicking it.

8d6 looks impressive. A 5E orc can survive average damage if they make their save. That's a basic orc lol.

5d6 3.5 basic one orcs dead no ifs no buts average roll.

 

[Sacrosanct]

Just saw the thread, haven't read all 300 posts. But I'll just say that I'm currently playing a 2024 Illusionist right now, and I can't help but notice how when I started in 1e back in 1981, Illusionists were awful. Now they are probably one of the most powerful wizard subclasses. They've finally swung the pendulum the other way lol. Heck, one of the most powerful classes period. Illusion spells are some of the best in the game, and you get them for free every level. Bonus action minor illusion anyone? And I have yet to reach the level where you can turn illusions to reality for a limited time. That's going to be a game changer and encounter ender right there.

With the 2024 changes, I find wizards to be one of the more powerful and useful classes, with the fact you don't need to prep ritual spells to cast them as rituals. That opens a lot of doors. And being able to swap cantrips after every long is also extremely useful.

 

[Zardnaar]

Just saw the thread, haven't read all 300 posts. But I'll just say that I'm currently playing a 2024 Illusionist right now, and I can't help but notice how when I started in 1e back in 1981, Illusionists were awful. Now they are probably one of the most powerful wizard subclasses. They've finally swung the pendulum the other way lol. Heck, one of the most powerful classes period. Illusion spells are some of the best in the game, and you get them for free every level. Bonus action minor illusion anyone? And I have yet to reach the level where you can turn illusions to reality for a limited time. That's going to be a game changer and encounter ender right there.

With the 2024 changes, I find wizards to be one of the more powerful and useful classes, with the fact you don't need to prep ritual spells to cast them as rituals. That opens a lot of doors. And being able to swap cantrips after every long is also extremely useful.

New Illusionist is great. Best wizard. That's one subclass.

Its also competing with things like the new twin spell.

See the amount of power creep on the playtest ones.

 

[Sacrosanct]

New Illusionist is great. Best wizard. That's one subclass.

All wizards can cast ritual spells without using prepared slots, and all can change out cantrips every long rest. Those are two hugely impactful things.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

The math supports 3.5 fireball being better.

I disagree. Not within the whole system.

Your argued is subjective.

Yours too.

Control spells wreck house in 5E as well. At a lot of levels the odds of flunking them are similar to 3.5.

Then you did not play 3.5 with people who really expoited the system. Happy for you.

Im not realky gonna use fireball much in 5E vs control spelks even if playing optimally.

Ok.

Most peopke are casuals. They're not going to play optimally.

Probably. Didn't play with casuals back then.

3.6 fireball is better then is it not?

Maybe. Maybe if I DM'd it today, I would enforce a bjt lower numbers in general. Maybe have the same standard array as we use in 5e. And don't scale enemy AC and be much more tight with magic items.

Powergamers shouldn't use fireball either edition or at least not that often.

Agreed.

3.5 hit points are about half 5E. The worst 3E fireball is better than 5E one mathematically speaking?

Not on the player side though.

No. It is not. Because you do nkt use fireball against equal level foes. But against numbers of CR < 1 foes. How often do I need to repeat that?

5E ones not really worth upcasting.

Agreed.

3.5 one mean metanagic or free metamagic. 5th level slot we are looking at 15d6 damage vs 10d6 in an edition with half the hit points.

At level 10+
But again, that is meaningless. As I did not even suggest upcasting it at that level...
No one wver suggested, that at level 10, fireball was ok again. This is why wizards in 3e were way mkre powerful than fighters. Because they scaled quadratic.

Comparing the more linear wizard against the quadratic wizard is not fair anyway. The whole idea of 5e's spell system is bringing wizatds down to sane levels.

That's a 30d6 fireball comparatively, 25-28 if you want to start nitpicking it.

...

8d6 looks impressive. A 5E orc can survive average damage if they make their save. That's a basic orc lol.

Correct. Orcs in 5e are toughs now. In 3e and before, they were just bigger goblins...
That has more to do with the orc's evolution and depicture in other media than fireball becoming weaker.
Hobgoblins still die to an average fireball. And hobgoblins in 3.5 even had one more hp than orcs...

5d6 3.5 basic one orcs dead no ifs no buts average roll.

Yes. See above.

And actually, your 2x hp is actually not true btw.

Lets take the troll:

63 in 3.5 vs 84 in 5.14. That is just 1/3 more hp. And regeneration in 3.5 is harder to stop, as only the fire damage itself can't be regenerated.

In 5.24 it is 95 hp. That is 50% higher than 3.5. Even 8d6 is more than 50% higher than 5d6.

The werebear actually now in 5.24 has more than double hp. But they don't have resistance 10/silver.
But here I say, 10 silver was just there to annoy fighters. Wizards were too good against them. But yes, point for you.

Air elemental: 60 hp (3.5) vs 90 hp (5.24)

Just 50% increase. Point for me. Even when not considering flyby attack and combat reflexes for the 3.5 one.

But again. I do not recommend using fireball against single high CR enemies.

But yeah. I guess you will ignore that part once again...