WotC Comparing EN World's Demographics to the D&D Community's

WotC released some figures this week. I thought it would be fun to compare them to the demographics of our own little community here on EN World for the same period (2019).

WotC uses a metric it refers to as 40,000,000 'D&D Fans', but that's not defined. For the purposes of this, I assume a fan is a person who has interacted directly with D&D in some way (played a game, bought a book, watch a stream, played a video game, etc.) A fan's a fan, however they interact with D&D!

For comparison, I'm using people who have interacted with EN World in some way -- and what we can measure is unique visitors. Obviously this isn't on the same scale (40M people is a LOT) but it doesn't matter too much for what we're doing here; they're both samples for conversation. So, let's start at the top!
  • Short version: EN World skews younger, but more male than the overall D&D community.
WotC is looking at 40M fans, we're looking at 5.6M unique users (as opposed to overall visits, which numbers in the tens of millions). We get this data using Google Analytics, which provides a lot of anonymized demographic data. I can't identify any individual person with this; it merely shows the overall numbers. Our demographic data includes just under half of those 5.6M users; I don't know how WotC's data is derived. I know they do surveys from time to time, but I don't know what percentage of those 40M fans fill out those forms.

As an aside - 40 million D&D fans is awesome! We're definitely living in a golden age of tabletop gaming, and as the market leader, WotC is the entity most responsible for bringing in new gamers. Well, maybe Critical Role is, but they're playing D&D!

Age

So, the controversial data that everybody on Twitter is talking about -- the age groups. Google Analytics breaks it down a little differently to WotC's figures, so here's what we have. GA doesn't give stats on people under 18 years of age. The figures below are those GA has data on for EN World -- obviously that's only about half of overall users.

Age​
Numbers​
Percentage​
18-24592,401 users24.58%
25-341,309,373 users54.33%
35-44330,755 users13.46%
45-54138,372 users5.74%
55-6426,689 users1.11%
65+12,631 users0.52%

As you can see, the figures aren't as evenly distributed as WotC's. There's a significant number of 25-34 year-olds, and a higher number of 18-24 year-olds. Also, it shows people above the age of 45, who don't appear in WotC's stats.
  • We show a slightly higher percentage of people 34 or under (79% compared to WotC's measure of 74%) although we're not measuring people under 18, which would skew it younger if we were.
  • 26% of WotC's audience is over 25, while only 20% of EN World's is.
  • 7.37% of EN World's audience is over 45.
  • Under 18s are not included in the stats.
  • EN World skews younger than the D&D community overall.
Screen Shot 2020-04-25 at 12.09.27 AM.png

For comparison, here are WotC's figures.

Screen Shot 2020-04-25 at 12.42.49 AM.png


I've turned them into a quick and dirty bar graph. The number of players increases slowly from 8 up until age 35, peaking at ages 30-34, and then it starts to drop off sharply. That's the same age that the drop-off on EN World's readership takes place, too. Seems about 30 is peak age.

wotc_age.jpg


And here are those same figures in absolute numbers -- 10% of 40,000,000 people is a LOT of people!

Age​
Percentage​
Numbers​
8-1212%4.8 million
13-1713%5.2 million
18-2415%6 million
25-2915%6 million
30-3419%7.6 million
35-3915%6 million
40-4511%4.4 million

Gender

The gender demographics here skew much more male than WotC's stats do. Google Analytics shows male and female (it doesn't track non-binary people) and reports on under half of overall users (2.3M out of 5.6M total).

Of those, it reports 85.56% male, 14.44% female. It doesn't provide data on non-binary visitors.

Screen Shot 2020-04-25 at 12.08.51 AM.png



Geography

WotC's report shows that Europe is growing for them. As a European (at least geographically!) that's heartwarming news for me. So here's some figures on EN World's geographical distribution.

As you can see, it skews primarily English-speaking heavily, which is expected for an English-language community.

United States3,376,839 users59.14%
United Kingdom (yay!)478,217 users8.38%
Canada411,179 users7.2%
Australia198,922 users3.48%
Brazil125,682 users2.2%
Germany109,248 users1.91%
Italy95,682 users1.68%
Netherlands74,139 users1.3%
Sweden51,479 users0.9%
Spain47,096 users0.82%

The list goes on for pages, but we're under 1% now.

The average EN World reader is male, American, between 25-34.
 

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I think ENWorld and the community completely missed the actual news here.

"WOTC releases obviously false data, demonstrates they still have no idea how to effectively run their business"

That's the actual headline here.

WOTC sells books. Not directly to consumers, to retailers who sell to consumers. Consumers are not forced to self identify when purchasing books, consumers are not required to notify WOTC when they play in a game. One set of books could be one customer, they could be 12 customers, WOTC has no idea.

WOTC has no idea how old their customers are, what sex they are, or what age they are. In fact, the only thing WOTC knows is demographics of their public play program, which is going to be a vanishingly small percentage of their customers.

So I think the bigger news story here is that WOTC has definitively proven that they are incompetent at managing a business, and the community really should start working to have discussions with Hasbro if they want to see D&D survive. Because there's no way a company this misguided can possibly stay in business long term.
Oh goodness.

Yea, like how Disney is going under? Or Star Wars is a dead franchise?
 

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To really compare the popularity of different editions, you'd probably want to adjust sales by market size (i.e. population).

Only if you're interested in some weird theoretical value. I mean, WotC cares about how many people are buying its stuff. The percentage is just a pretty number; the absolute numbers are what translate to sales.
 

Wow! So easy! So where’s your red box then?
I don't understand.

In any case, it's the same deal with the box office. Notice how the figures are always "adjusted for inflation" when ranking the relative success of movies. Gone with the Wind, for example, made very little money compared to an unsuccessful movie released in 2019, but adjusted for inflation, it made a lot more.

Whether you're comparing profit or units sold, you need to adjust for inflation (USD or population) to accurately gauge the relative success of different products.
 

Only if you're interested in some weird theoretical value.
It's not a weird theoretical value; it's a more accurate way of measuring the relative success of different editions, which some people are oddly obsessed with doing (they want to see their favorite edition "beat" the others, I guess). I'm not saying that that's a worthwhile conversation or that 5E isn't successful (it is), but if people are going to compare different editions, they should at least use sensible models.
 

It's not a weird theoretical value; it's a more accurate way of measuring the relative success of different editions, which some people are oddly obsessed with doing (they want to see their favorite edition "beat" the others, I guess).
Yes, but my point is 'relative success' isn't important. Absolute numbers are. The number of things you sell. I'd rather sell more things to a smaller percentage than fewer things to a larger percentage.
 


Yes, but my point is 'relative success' isn't important. Absolute numbers are. The number of things you sell. I'd rather sell more things to a smaller percentage than fewer things to a larger percentage.
Right. I don't disagree. Absolute numbers are what matter most to WotC. For Edition Warriors, though, unit-sales adjusted for population is a more meaningful metric.
 

Oh goodness.

Yea, like how Disney is going under? Or Star Wars is a dead franchise?

Disney might actually go under. They were heavily in debt, are borrowing more, income has plunged, and both their main income streams are closed.

Even if they can reopen the airline and cruise ship industries have collapsed. Their share price is also in free fall which leaves then open to a hostile take over.

AMC us also on the brink so even if they can reopen movie theatre chains may not survive either so that sweet sweet MCU money will dry up. Big earner is the parks and hotels. They're closed, airline industry is collapsing so a lot less tourists even if they reopen.

Ignoring the 26 million Americans that have become unemployed in the last month.

The 40 milllion players iirc refers to every D&D player ever so looks good if you count 3E and golden age players as active.

Absolute numbers are kinda what matters but cultural impact would be harder to define. Population is 50% bigger roughly.

You can look at TSR sales adjust for inflation and compare with the RPG market now. 5E is roughly comparable to the Golden age so when they say it's the biggest seller they're not lying. It's probably comparable to 1E and Red box combined.

They had 3 good years in golden age, 5E had around 4.

So it's probably a bit bigger for a bit longer. We don't know what % of TSR sales were D&D and what % of 2019 rpg market is 5Ebut 80-90% is probably a safe bet. RPG market is 4 or 5 times bigger now than pre 5E. Pre Covid as well.

Golden age D&D TSR revenue inflation adjusted is similar to the size of the entire RPG market now. But that was two of the biggest selling D&D's ever combined.

2019 would be the new peak IMHO. 2020s probably gonna be a bust though.
 

"WOTC releases obviously false data, demonstrates they still have no idea how to effectively run their business"
That's a business-to-business chart, using different metrics and focused on different things than the people in this thread want it to be. That's not a failure any more than ice cream is a failure because it's not a cheeseburger.
 


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