D&D (2024) Does anyone else think that 1D&D will create a significant divide in the community?

[Mistwell]

a new normal I would think needs more proof then the assumption things will go forward the way history shows

OK, so let's settle that question. History hasn't shown anything - I gave you numerous examples where things which have huge boosts don't then bust, and you gave examples where things which have huge boosts do go bust. We both agree D&D has never experienced this huge boost before. So there is no history here to go on. This is new territory and it could be either model.

Huge difference though remains as I am saying it remains unknown and you are saying definitively it's a bubble which will burst. Yet you have the same zero evidence I have. You have an extreme view of things, and I have a neutral one.

So, maybe a break from the gadfly act? You can admit you don't know the future. Nobody will think less of you.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

OK, so let's settle that question. History hasn't shown anything

history has shown that no, D&D is not going to spend 20+ years in huge growth.

- I gave you numerous examples where things which have huge boosts don't then bust, and you gave examples where things which have huge boosts do go bust. We both agree D&D has never experienced this huge boost before. So there is no history here to go on. This is new territory and it could be either model.

so we are back to 50/50 if I win lotto or not since there are only 2 options... win or lose. Sorry but no. The trend is not to see booms go on for ever... I notice your examples were tech and mine games.

Huge difference those remains I am saying it remains unknown and you are saying definitively it's a bubble which will burst. Yet you have the same zero evidence I have.

the diffrence is I am saying odds are it will bust not 100% certain it will, and you keep coming back with "But maybe not"

yes there is a chance this is the new normal... but there is also a chance I will get my novel published and a movie deal in the next 3 weeks... I would not bet on either.

So, maybe a break from the gadfly act?

maybe you can admit that at no point di dI say it couldn't go on... infact mny orginal post said if the movie does well and they can keep it in the public zeitguiest and sell this new edition maybe it can...

 

[mamba]

there is a persona post or two above you saying this is the new normal... or atleast may be. So no not obviously

I thought they were talking about size of the playerbase, not growth rate..

 

[mamba]

you gave examples where things which have huge boosts do go bust. We both agree D&D has never experienced this huge boost before. So there is no history here to go on

I don't know, history has shown me that when I throw something into the air, it must come down eventually, even if I never have thrown this particular apple into the air... if you want to claim an exception to the rule, you should present a reason why the rule does not apply when it applies to so many other things

 

[MonsterEnvy]

Having to keep track of both 2014 and 2024 class rules, let alone all the other differences, in the same game sounds like a nightmare as a DM.

Nah it’s pretty simple.

I consider 1D&D to be a new edition in the same way 2e was to 1e. Which is that they could easily be mixed and matched with little issue. And were backwards compatible.

 

[Mistwell]

history has shown that no, D&D is not going to spend 20+ years in huge growth.

so we are back to 50/50 if I win lotto or not since there are only 2 options... win or lose. Sorry but no. The trend is not to see booms go on for ever... I notice your examples were tech and mine games.

So now you're fibbing. My first example was the euro board games. You responded to it, we went back and forth, it's not a mistake.

I've noticed a trend here. This isn't feeling like a good faith discussion so far. It was 50/50 and you claimed it wasn't, and then insisted I prove otherwise (when you had no proof to begin with). It was me using a game example and you claimed it wasn't. Two strikes.

the diffrence is I am saying odds are it will bust not 100% certain it will, and you keep coming back with "But maybe not"

Third strike. You're now fibbing about your own position. You left no room for doubt. Repeatedly:

"I assume the bubble was going to pop sooner rather then later"

"sooner or later the burst comes"

"sooner or later the burst comes"

"EVERYTHING that trends upward must burst "

So yes, you were very clearly saying 100%, and leaving no room for any discussion or doubt.
And now you're pretending you said the opposite.

yes there is a chance this is the new normal... but there is also a chance I will get my novel published and a movie deal in the next 3 weeks... I would not bet on either.

maybe you can admit that at no point di dI say it couldn't go on... infact mny orginal post said if the movie does well and they can keep it in the public zeitguiest and sell this new edition maybe it can...

No you said only "might keep the bubble alive another 5-10 years... but whne it pops hasbro/wotc is in for a rude awakening"

Yeah, I am not going to deal with this from you man. If you're saying now you changed your mind, fine then say that. But you don't get to pretend this entire conversation we just had you were saying the opposite of what you actually said. The entire reason I responded was you were taking an absolutist position on a very debatable topic. You can't retroactively pretend you were saying something different than what you repeatedly said and emphasized with all caps.

 

[MonsterEnvy]

history has shown that no, D&D is not going to spend 20+ years in huge growth.

so we are back to 50/50 if I win lotto or not since there are only 2 options... win or lose. Sorry but no. The trend is not to see booms go on for ever... I notice your examples were tech and mine games.

It’s not 50/50. You have a much higher chance of being wrong cause nothing supports your claim. D&D growing even more over the next 10 years is far more supported, cause what is looking like a successful movie and then media franchise is looking to take off.

 

[mamba]

It’s not 50/50. You have a much higher chance of being wrong cause nothing supports your claim. D&D growing even more over the next 10 years is far more supported, cause what is looking like a successful movie and then media franchise is looking to take off.

to me this looks like we are talking about very different things

1) are we talking about player base / sales or growth rate. I have no problem seeing them maintaining or increasing sales for 10 years, but maintaining a 30+% growth rate that long…

2) are we talking about the TTRPG or everything D&D (movies, novels, computer games, merchandising, …)

 

[UngeheuerLich]

So now you're fibbing. My first example was the euro board games. You responded to it, we went back and forth, it's not a mistake.

I've noticed a trend here. This isn't feeling like a good faith discussion so far. It was 50/50 and you claimed it wasn't, and then insisted I prove otherwise (when you had no proof to begin with). It was me using a game example and you claimed it wasn't. Two strikes.


Third strike. You're now fibbing about your own position. You left no room for doubt. Repeatedly:

"I assume the bubble was going to pop sooner rather then later"

"sooner or later the burst comes"

"sooner or later the burst comes"

"EVERYTHING that trends upward must burst "

So yes, you were very clearly saying 100%, and leaving no room for any discussion or doubt.
And now you're pretending you said the opposite.



No you said only "might keep the bubble alive another 5-10 years... but whne it pops hasbro/wotc is in for a rude awakening"

Of course it won't increase forever... but keeping it alive is just what you do at some point. Breath refrehing air into it.
This is what the movie does. This is what OneD&D does. So "keeping it alive for 5 to 10 years" sounds like a good plan.

Some people here and elsewhere claim that doing a 2024 edition is a bad idea. Because they change for change's sake or to cater to woke people or new players... that wotc tries to sell them the same book again with minimal changes.

No. It is exactly that: Keping the bubble alive before it explodes. It might take a bit air out of it but then it can be inflated again. Waiting for the bubble to burst would be a bad business strategy.
2024 might be the best time to actually do the edition turnaround, as it is a special date. The movie, the playtest and some anticpated books might keep the bubble from not deflating to much on the ramp up to 2024. But they won't find a better date.

 

[DataDwarf]

Nah it’s pretty simple.

I consider 1D&D to be a new edition in the same way 2e was to 1e. Which is that they could easily be mixed and matched with little issue. And were backwards compatible.

You're a better person than I am. I can barely keep straight/remember all the current base class rules, let alone the 120+ current subclasses. Adding the 2024 variants to that is just not going to be possible for me.

Even back in the 1e-2e days, my group of high school friends made a hard choice to move from 1e to 2e at a certain point. We never mixed the two. It was just too confusing. At least from a player option point of view. Adventures/monsters/other more DM-facing items were/are a different beast.

I am going to have to make a choice, and since I already own the 2014 books and don't have any real issues with them, rather than dropping $150+ on an incremental upgrade I think I know what my choice will be.