D&D 5E Is Tasha's Broken?

[Fenris-77]

It doesn't take into consideration any extra damage dealing abilities. It's a white room exercise that's pretty misleading. It sounds great on paper, but doesn't mean much in play.

I also wonder how much that +1 disappears into the random damage die flux. Don't get me wrong, white room is useful but it also needs context. +1 seems light when even 6th level characters might be getting +4 anyway.

 

[EzekielRaiden]

Wow. 17 pages is a lot. Anyone feel like summing up the key issues? Other than the stats argument above?

About the issue above specifically, I really don't get how one extra hit over multiple fights equates to 20% more damage (or anything close). So, um, what?!

The problem is that stats compound upon themselves. It's not actually "one hit per fight over multiple fights," firstly; it is 1 in 20 attacks, yes, but by the time you get a single Extra Attack (or are using your Bonus Action to make an additional attack), it's more. For many characters it's But then it's also 1 extra damage on every attack you land. And, especially if it's Dexterity, it's also +1 Initiative, and +1 to a bunch of skills, and +1 AC. Or if it's Charisma for Bladelocks (or certain forms of Paladin), or Wisdom for Monks, or Constitution for Barbarians, etc.

The net effect, over the course of a day, is greater than the sum of the parts.

 

[Fenris-77]

Maybe I'm soft in the head, but the math on +1 when there are no other mods seems different than +1 tucked into an overall mod of +6.

 

[Irlo]

How are we granting an extra hit without taking about AC and whatnot?

For any given attack roll, there is exactly a 5% chance that the result misses the AC by 1 point. On average, over 20 attacks, the +1 bonus will come into play only once. That's the extra hit.

 

[Bill Zebub]

So I decided to write a little simulation. I wanted to roll millions of dice (in a computer program) to see how much better 16 strength is than 15 strength. The problem was, I couldn't decide which opponent to use.

Then it hit me: make 'em fight each other.

No, I'm not into PvP, but I figured this would be a good test of just how much better that +1 is.

First, I fought two 1st level sword and board fighters against each other. Chainmail, sword, shield, 14 Con, Defensive fighting style.

I ran 100,000 simulated fights to the death, with the two characters taking turn going first.

The guy with 16 strength ("Hutch" in my code) beat the guy with 15 strength ("Starsky) 60% of the time.

So then I bumped them up to 3rd level, meaning HP went from 12 to 28.

Now Starsky won 67% of the time.

Hmmm.

So, next I wondered how that +1 compares to Action Surge. I gave Starsky, but not Hutch, an Action Surge, thinking that would turn the tide in his favor. Nope. Hutch still won (at 3rd level) 58% of the time.

Just to check my code, I reduced Hutch's strength down to 15, but left Starsky with Action Surge. That finally flipped the board, and Starsky won 57% of the time.

Conclusion: the +1 modifier is significantly better than Action Surge, at least in terms of pure damage output. And that's not even factoring in that it's on all the time, not just for one fight per rest.

Epilogue: maybe Action Surge would shine with two-handed weapons, making that bonus attack worth more? I gave them each greataxes, which also meant they lost their shields, and then finally it was nearly a tie, with Hutch winning just slightly more than 50% of the time.

 

[Maxperson]

irrelevant to you, but obviously not irrelevant to many players.
and yes, 20 damage over 20 rounds a day spend in combat at low levels might not seem much, but it is difference between 90 and 110 damage for a greatsword user. Or in relative terms a 22,2% increase in damage.

But problem is, it is you main job in your party and having your int or cha going from 8 to 10 will NOT compensate for loss of 20 damage per day, if you care about combat utility of your character.

It won't if combat is all that matters to you, no. It will more than compensate for it if you actually interact with the game outside of combat, because then that loss of the -1 means you will know more things that will impact the game a lot more than giving some orcs a couple extra bruises.

So, you are 8th level warlock(just got your 2nd ASI), and you get your nice "20" in cha.
or you have only 18 because of reasons...

77% of games never reach level 8.

And you do not like flashy spells or control spells. You just like to take bunch of d20s every turn and make attack rolls.
So, you invest in you eldritch blast invocations and run around with you beholdering from 4th level Summon aberration.

and let's again use 20 round of combat per day:

with 18 cha;

EB:
+7 attack,
1d10+4 damage,
2 attacks per round, 50% hit chance

Aberration:
+7 attack
1d8+7 damage
2 attacks per round, 50% hit chance

that comes down to 420(heh) damage per day


with 20 cha;

EB:
+8 attack,
1d10+5 damage,
2 attacks per round, 55% hit chance

Aberration:
+5 attack
1d8+7 damage
2 attacks per round, 55% hit chance

that comes down to 484 damage per day

so we get a difference of 64 damage per day or 15,2%. Little less extreme in RELATIVE terms than low level greatsword, but it's still a lot.
especially if it is 15% in your MAIN job, or just the job that you like the most while playing DND(or combat part of DND)

That's 3.2 extra damage a round(combined warlock and aberration), which to a group of creatures with 80+ hit points isn't going to mean much. And that's much better than the fighter gets.

Or just to turn it around, if you are thinking that it is so irrelevant, why do you bother if players take it as an option or not?

I don't. I'm just hoping to show people how irrelevant it is in hopes that they might start taking more enjoyable options that make a larger difference in the game. I like helping people.

 

[Bill Zebub]

How are we granting an extra hit without taking about AC and whatnot?

The idea is that if you make 20 attacks then on average you will hit one extra time. You don't actually get a perfect distribution of rolls, but imagine that over 20 attacks you rolled one of each result: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc. Exactly one of those attacks would turn from a miss into a hit, if you have an additional +1.

Of course, any 20 actual sequential rolls are very unlikely to produce exactly that result, which is why we talk about averages.

 

[Maxperson]

I also wonder how much that +1 disappears into the random damage die flux. Don't get me wrong, white room is useful but it also needs context. +1 seems light when even 6th level characters might be getting +4 anyway.

We sort of have to take average rolls for these discussions. There will be fights where all damage is lower than average, and others where it's higher. On average, though, a d8 weapon is doing 4.5 damage + modifier and a d12 weapon is going to be doing 6.5 damage + modifier.

 

[Fenris-77]

For any given attack roll, there is exactly a 5% chance that the result misses the AC by 1 point. On average, over 20 attacks, the +1 bonus will come into play only once. That's the extra hit.

This seems to ignore other mods that move the totals past 20.

 

[Maxperson]

This seems to ignore other mods that move the totals past 20.

What do you mean?