I was going to take a nap, but my stupid neighbors are making noise again.
Anyway, it took the PCs and NPCs 6 hours to return to Carnell after the fight in the cave and everyone has rested at least 8 hours since then. So, if the fight took place at dusk, then the survivors return from the cave around 3 A.M. and then sleep for 8 more hours, which will make it 11 A.M. the next day.
If the PCs are actually waking up with the
dawn, then it has been 29 to 30 hours instead. Otherwise it has only been around 12 to 13 hours since the end of the fight.
(I forgot there was also the two hours it took for the PCs to go to the cave. The attack on Carnell happened right after that happened.)
Assuming 15 hours and that Xander travels at his normal speed and Eike rides Mabon's horse at a normal pace, Xander can get 16 miles and Eike can get 48 miles in that 15 hour period (8 hours travel; resting 7 hours). Both have darkvision and are not hampered by the night. Xander is dazzled during daylight hours without eye protection, however.
If they stick to the southern trail that goes from Carnell to the Pillar of Soldiers then Xander can make it two hexes from Carnell while Eike can make it 5-1/2 hexes. (Each hex on the campaign map [see below] is 8 miles.) This would put Eike at the pillar, which is a stopping over point in the hills 28 miles southeast of Fort Symas.
(Fort Symas is where Lorien and Aeron are currently located.)
Eike could go off the trail across trackless wilderness through the Wasting Shores but it is a lot tougher route and way more dangerous. Xander would be stupid to go off the trail but you never know with villains running from the law.
If it is more like 32 hours, then both can travel those distances, rest for 8 hours, travel for another 8 hours, rest for 8 hours, and then travel for another 8 hours. Xander will have travelled 48 miles on foot and Eike would have travelled 144 miles on Mabon's horse. This assumes they use the full time to travel then rest and then travel again (risking nonlethal damage for Xander and lethal damage for Mabon's horse).
Xander would have gone just over 5 hexes and just be approaching the pillar (assuming he sticks to the trail). Eike would be able to travel just over 14 hexes (112 miles). He loses time in the hills but not much. He would have passed by the Elderspire, a watch tower that sits in the hills along the edge of the Wasting Shore. Note that patrols in this area of the Strandlands are few and far between.
@JustinCase:
Since Caerth was born and raised in Carnell, he knows the lands around the village and the key places where stopovers are likely to occur. He knows both have fled south and that Xander is likely to stick to the trail while on foot. With a horse, Eike could go overland and head somewhere unexpected. As long as Eike doesn't push Mabon's horse, he has an advantage of speed.
Caerth is 100% positive they are not fleeing together.