Bill Zebub
“It’s probably Matt Mercer’s fault.”
Is it, though? The source is a bit dated, but the information seems to mesh with that conclusion quite nicely. This is pulled from D&DBeyond, pre-Tasha.
Rogue, wizard, and ranger seem to be popular picks for elves, who have +2 to Dexterity and either Intelligence or Wisdom, while there are nowhere near as many elf barbarians. Dwarves gravitate toward fighter, barbarian and cleric thanks to their bonuses, whereas dwarf bards and sorcerers are comparatively few.
I wouldn't venture as far as to say that it's definitive proof that a majority of players think the same way, but it's certainly not unreasonable to conclude that someone would want to be a warlock, see that base tieflings have +2 charisma, and decide that they will be a tiefling warlock, no further thoughts on the matter.
I just want to make sure you realize the quote I was contesting:
The vast majority of people who tend to prefer races that have stats that work well with their class and subclass are not doing a cost-benefit analysis. They just want to feel good about the choice they are making. It's not a particularly rational decision. It just feels off.
Now, if they had just said, "The vast majority of people tend to prefer races that have stats that work well with their class and subclass" I would agree with them, and with you.
But they went on to hypothesize about why those people are making that choice, and not in a very flattering way.