I don't think it is too much of a leap to guess that folks here are probably also more invested (financially and emotionally) in 3ed than the average gamer.
Key word: "financially"
When 3E came out, people with stacks of 2E books went and bought stacks of 3E books. The fraction of the fan base with stacks of 3E books that has started buying stacks of 4E books is decidedly smaller. I believe WotC wanted to target a wider range of fans. But if they have succeeded in trading one fan who bought a book a month for 4 fans who each buy less than a book a year, then they have made a bad deal. But hey, at least those "fans" are not so financially invested that they won't switch straight to buying nothing for 5E.
WotC has most certainly lowered the bar and made D&D more accessible to casual gamers. But it has also made a game that is a lot less appealing to people who think of themselves as gamers as an overall group. And please don't bother explaining to me how you are completely the opposite of this claim. I'm certain there are quite a large number of you reading this. Unless you intend to buy a few thousand of the next 4E supplement, it doesn't change the point.
I also struggle with the idea that it seems that "emotionally invested" gamers prefer 3E and yet the numbers for 4E are low (in part) because we are still waiting for all these less emotionally invested, certain to switch over to 4E, gamers to wrap up their 3E games six months later. My campaigns generally run a year or two. So it is certainly possible, but the idea that a meaningful number of would be 4E, non-emotionally invested gamers cranked up a new 3E campaign in the final six months of the the pre-release hype and now can't bear to leave that game and move on, is a bit hard to swallow. I mean, the whole premise is a lack of emotional investment...
I still think that a low bar recruiting strategy is a very short sighted plan for table top gaming. (and perhaps there is my flaw and maybe WotC doesn't care to have a long term plan for table top gaming. I'm not claiming they don't, I'm just throwing out the possibility)
I still believe that a sizable fraction of the non-gamers who have joined in to the easy, accessible new system will move on to the next new thing sooner rather than later. And I also think that a sizable fraction of the gamers who do like 4E will find that the simplifications will lead to a much more rapid been-there, done-that than is typical. And I know, not you. I'm not talking about you. I'm talking about community.