No Prebuff - Round 1 - Damage Rankings

[Esker]

I get 70.4 replacing half-orc with human and adding GWM. Not as big a boost as I expected.

EDIT: strike that, I need to change precision attack values

 

[FrogReaver]

I get 70.4 replacing half-orc with human and adding GWM. Not as big a boost as I expected.

EDIT: strike that, I need to change precision attack values

Also factor in the bonus action attack from a crit. Then there will be a small chance you have a battlemaster dice remaining to apply to that attack as well.

 

[Esker]

Ok, I actually get 74.0 with GWM, but that doesn't include the BA attack after a crit yet.

 

[FrogReaver]

I get the damage by the bonus action attack will be between +2.9 and +4.7. Probably closer to the +2.9 as there's not a large chance for a dice remaining.

For the non -5/+10 fighter

 

[Esker]

So I think (and tell me if you disagree) that we can ignore when the bonus action attack happens, since there's nothing different about it than any other attack, and just focus on whether it happens. So we have a chance of at least one crit, which is the chance we get a fifth attack, and then the cumulative chance that the enemy is prone after four attacks, and the damage we do with a fifth attack.

Assuming we use our maneuver dice on the first four attacks (which we should, since their value goes down with each subsequent attack), that leaves the fifth attack to be made at 0.40 base to hit with no extra damage, with possible advantage. It doesn't add a ton: there's a little better than a 20% chance that we get to make the attack at all, and since the extra attack doesn't benefit from trip or precision, it's only doing 11.6 damage on average when we do make it. So the value of that BA attack is only about 3 extra damage.

 

[FrogReaver]

So I think (and tell me if you disagree) that we can ignore when the bonus action attack happens, since there's nothing different about it than any other attack, and just focus on whether it happens. So we have a chance of at least one crit, which is the chance we get a fifth attack, and then the cumulative chance that the enemy is prone after four attacks, and the damage we do with a fifth attack.

Assuming we use our maneuver dice on the first four attacks (which we should, since their value goes down with each subsequent attack), that leaves the fifth attack to be made at 0.40 base to hit with no extra damage, with possible advantage. It doesn't add a ton: there's a little better than a 20% chance that we get to make the attack at all, and since the extra attack doesn't benefit from trip or precision, it's only doing 11.6 damage on average when we do make it. So the value of that BA attack is only about 3 extra damage.

There's a non-negligible chance that a dice doesn't get used each turn especially with the -5/+10 turned on. With a 65% base chance to hit that becomes a 40% chance with -5/+10. That means you needs 13 or higher to hit. Even with a +8 from a precision dice you will still always miss when you roll 4 or lower. That's a 20% chance for the first attack that you don't use a dice. The 2nd attack that value will decrease some because you may have advantage and so on for the 3rd and 4th. As such I'd estimate you have about a 50% chance you didn't use a dice and could use one on the BA attack.

 

[Esker]

I guess you might want to save the die if they're already prone and you hit normally, so its neither creating a hit or giving you a chance of advantage later. In that case it gives you the opportunity to use precision attack on the last attack when you wouldn't otherwise be able to. Since precision attack is only increasing your chance to hit by 20-23%, it's only worth 0.23 * (8.33 + 15) = 5.4 extra damage if you save it, whereas using it on a trip attack even when they're already prone is buying you 4.5 at a minimum. So maybe saving it could buy you 1 more damage.

 

[FrogReaver]

I guess you might want to save the die if they're already prone and you hit normally, so its neither creating a hit or giving you a chance of advantage later. In that case it gives you the opportunity to use precision attack on the last attack when you wouldn't otherwise be able to. Since precision attack is only increasing your chance to hit by 20-23%, it's only worth 0.23 * (8.33 + 15) = 5.4 extra damage if you save it, whereas using it on a trip attack even when they're already prone is buying you 4.5 at a minimum. So maybe saving it could buy you 1 more damage.

I'm not thinking about saving it to try to increase it's effect. I'm thinking that there's times in our sequence where using a dice will have no benefit - When you roll 4 or lower.

 

[Esker]

There's a non-negligible chance that a dice doesn't get used each turn especially with the -5/+10 turned on. With a 65% base chance to hit that becomes a 40% chance with -5/+10. That means you needs 13 or higher to hit. Even with a +8 from a precision dice you will still always miss when you roll 4 or lower. That's a 20% chance for the first attack that you don't use a dice. The 2nd attack that value will decrease some because you may have advantage and so on for the 3rd and 4th. As such I'd estimate you have about a 50% chance you didn't use a dice and could use one on the BA attack.

Oh, yeah I guess if you miss by more than 8 you wouldn't use one.

 

[FrogReaver]

Oh, yeah I guess if you miss by more than 8 you wouldn't use one.

Yea, I'm thinking the net gain from the dice you may have remaining will be about +1 dmg. So your +3 comes out to about +4. Unless we get more accurate that's what I'm going to estimate it at.

So 78 Damage total.